The Tribune

Let’s talk numbers for a moment. There are around 400,000 people living in The Bahamas. According to the World Bank, last year 74.51% of the population were part of the workforce. That’s about three-quarters, so 300,000 people.

The National Insurance Board has received about 17,000 applications for unemployment benefits directly as a result of the pandemic – that’s around one in 18 people in the workforce.

That sounds sizeable – but it’s worse than that. That number doesn’t include those in the hotel industry, with NIB talking directly to hotel personnel to arrange faster payments for those workers.

That workforce is somewhere around 14,000 people – the 2018 report on hotel workers had the figure at 13,863 in New Providence alone.

That’s potentially more than 30,000 directly affected people. That’s just the direct figures. Previously, Tourism Minister Dionisio D’Aguilar has said the unemployment rate could now be higher than 30 percent. Nearly a third of the nation suddenly jobless.

It’s not just a Bahamas problem, it’s a global problem. Even as we write this column, the Secretary General of the United Nations, António Guterres, released a report calling for a large-scale response amounting to at least ten percent of global gross domestic product – and a massive increase in resources for the developing world.

The finances, clearly, are precarious. Getting the balance right is a tough matter –keeping people fed and sheltered, while not hurting the nation’s long-term prospects.

One of the latest measures has drawn criticism – a move to eliminate payments on health insurance for 60 days beyond the length of the public emergency. That helps companies with some temporary cashflow that would have been dedicated to paying their staff’s insurance – but the insurance companies themselves now have a hole in their finances. They’ll still be paying out for treatment – but where is their income to cover those costs? Some compare it to handing out free food from Super Value – and not expecting Super Value to complain. For at least three months, the insurance industry will have to figure out how to survive without income.

For that, you’d expect the government to be involved in dialogue – but the insurance industry says it was blindsided.

This is an urgent situation – but there is still a need to talk to sectors affected by decisions. It’s also a sign to other businesses they may be hit by government decisions. Is this the kind of impact businesses need to prepare themselves for as we begin to rebuild? After all, we know this will come at a cost. There will be increased borrowing. That will have to be paid back.

This is a numbers game – and it doesn’t have an easy solution.

Too soon to say - but death is a reminder of the danger we face

HAVE we reached a sad landmark in the spread of coronavirus in this country? Much as there might be a rush to ascribe the death of Kim Johnson-Rolle to the virus, it is too soon to say.

Test results need to come back before it is confirmed. It is important to know for sure, not least of all for those who have been in contact with Mrs Johnson-Rolle. Two weeks ago, she travelled to Florida, and this week she complained of chest pains and went to the clinic on Bimini, the island where she lived.

The speculation has already frustrated the family, and whatever the cause of death, she will be mourned by family and friends. Understanding the cause, however, will dictate the response. That will mean testing as a result of coming into contact, or the need to self-isolate. Understanding is a matter for ensuring the health of others.

There were clinical signs suggesting this was indeed a case of coronavirus, but there is a process to this that must be followed, and getting too far ahead of ourselves serves no one. Take precautions, yes. Make assumptions, no.

That need for a process is also why the statistics do not yet show a recovered case – the first patient has not yet met the standard for international reporting to be recorded as recovered.

What all this does do is bring home the danger we face, a danger reinforced by another confirmed case in Grand Bahama yesterday, the third there.

It also highlights the difficulty faced in caring for patients across the Family Islands – with the emphasis on bringing patients quickly to New Providence rather than placing ventilators there.

That can mean delays – so if you have any symptoms, report them right away – but it also means getting the right treatment.

This is not an easy time for any of us. To the family of Mrs Johnson-Rolle, including her brother, Immigration Minister Elsworth Johnson, we send our condolences.

If this is a first fatal case of coronavirus, we must redouble our efforts to try to make sure it is our last. To that end, we can only reiterate the advice being given over and over: Stay at home, wash your hands, avoid contact, only go out if you truly must. Be safe.