The Tribune

IT is remarkable how much long-term advantage people like us have gotten by trying to be consistently not stupid, instead of trying to be very intelligent.

– Charlie Munger (Warren Buffet’s long-term partner in Berkshire Hathaway).

THERE is likely a very good reason why former Democratic National Alliance (DNA) leader Branville McCartney is not today Prime Minister McCartney: he proved incapable of playing the long game in politics.

If the DNA had not split the vote with the FNM at the 2012 General Election, he would likely have handsomely won the Bamboo Town seat. He may have been a contender for FNM Leader after the party’s blowout loss to the PLP.

Were he elected FNM Leader, Mr McCartney may have been Prime Minister in a mere five years, when the country overwhelmingly returned the party to office after the disastrous five-year term of former Prime Minister Christie.

In an unprecedented event for a sitting Prime Minister and party leader in The Bahamas, Christie lost both popular favour and his Centreville seat. Even if Dr Hubert Minnis defeated McCartney for the leadership, the latter may have been in cabinet and a contender to lead the FNM in the election after next.

It is astonishing the number of Bahamian politicians who deem themselves the bright morning star, with the sun shining throughout every part of their anatomy, believing they are destined to be or should become Prime Minister today, if not the day after. Most of these combustible galactic personalities end up being shooting stars, not fixed stars.

Reversal of fortune is as typical in elected politics as in life. The long-term view appreciates how unpredictable is politics, famously summarized by the late British Prime Minister Harold Macmillan concerning the unexpected and sudden occurrence of: “Events, dear boy, events!”

MacMillan’s instinct somewhat echoes the caution of the 13th century medieval poem, “O Fortuna”, inspiring Carl Orff’s 20th century cantata “Carmina Burana”:

“O Fortune,

like the moon

you are changeable,

always waxing

or waning;

hateful life

first oppresses

and then soothes

as fancy takes it;

poverty

and power

it melts them like ice…”

JUDGEMENT

Fortune/luck plays a powerful role in politics. But so does the “slow, incremental progress” of the long game: waiting, watching and preparing to take advantage of fortune and the good, bad and uncertain luck of oneself and other actors. Essential to this process is good judgement.

Mr McCartney is not alone in failing to bide his time. Politicians with a variety of talents often lack a particular temperament: to out wait current circumstances and to adopt a broader horizon beyond a given moment, including during the fog of battle.

In “The Surprising Power of the Long Game”, Nisim Taleb offers: “The most successful people in any field all play the long game. The long game isn’t particularly notable. It doesn’t attract a lot of attention. In fact, from the outside, the long game looks boring. The tiny advantages that accrue aren’t noticed until success becomes too obvious to ignore.

“The short game is intermittent. It’s as if Sisyphus pushes his huge boulder halfway up a steep hill, gets tired, lets it roll down the hill, and says to himself ‘I’ll come back and do this tomorrow.’…”

“Events, dear boy, events”

In 2017, just two years after the 2015 electoral contest, former UK Conservative Prime Minister Theresa May called an early snap general election to capitalise on strong polling numbers, including some showing her with a 21 percent margin over Labour.

Though the Tories won the election, they dramatically underperformed. May won a reduced majority resulting in a minority government requiring a coalition and confidence-and-supply agreement with Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party, which extracted certain demands, further weakening her hand.

With an unsteady coalition, post-Brexit divisions and turmoil – and a series of historic defeats on Brexit legislation in the House of Commons – May announced her departure from 10 Downing Street in mid-2019.

The race to succeed her included then-Home Secretary Sajid Javid, who made it to the final four but eventually threw his support to Boris Johnson, who later named him Chancellor of the Exchequer.

Javid resigned after a scant six months because of a row over the appointment of special advisors. It was, according to the Institute of Government, one of the shortest-lived chancellorships in modern Britain.

Johnson’s eccentric and often seemingly crazed chief special adviser Dominic Cummings, who was riding precariously high at the time, sneeringly delighted in engineering Javid’s exit as the second most powerful member of the Cabinet.

One UK tabloid described the long game of the ambitious and steady Javid, the first British-Asian and Muslim to serve at Number 11 as Chancellor, after resigning one of the great offices of state:

“He was widely credited with a dignified departure, and refrained from attacking Mr Cummings throughout. As a backbencher he has been loyal to Mr Johnson and the Government, and backed its approach to the pandemic.”

There was much to criticize, including the initial shambolic and late response to the pandemic by Johnson and his Health and Social Care Secretary Matt Hancock. The UK has the highest death toll in Europe. Javid could have attacked the government over a series of scandals, missteps and blunders.

As reported in the UK Guardian: “Javid’s allies made it clear upon his departure as Chancellor that he was open to return to government and was not bitter.”

Cummings, unlike Javid, left in a blaze of unbridled and explosive egomania, viciously turning on Johnson with numerous damaging revelations, none of which seem to have done permanent damage thus far – except to Cummings, who will likely never be trusted again to work at the highest levels of government.

LOYALTY

Javid understood the importance of party loyalty, not as a matter of altruism, but as a strategy for his long-term political goals, including, likely, the prime ministership.

He did not go to the backbench and whine and complain. He did not leak certain information nor try to gain headlines to boost his standing. He did not sulk and appear petulant and peevish in the Commons.

He did not throw tantrums or act in an erratic impulsive manner, seeking to make himself the centre of political and media attention. He worked his way back to the cabinet by proving himself a team player, not a stalking lone wolf seething and plotting attacks.

How does one go to the backbench, continue to harshly criticize one’s former cabinet colleagues and expect to be a leadership contender at a future date?

When a political ego is bruised it is best not to show it in public because it gives ammunition to opponents and it is off-putting to allies and supporters. Meanwhile, the wheel of fortune continued to grind then speed up in the precincts of Whitehall.

Cummings, who was more powerful than most cabinet ministers, was making enemies, reportedly including the Prime Minister’s then-girlfriend Carrie Symonds, who is now his wife and who previously served as a special media advisor to Javid.

Javid maintained his good relations with Johnson’s powerful partner. Cummings’ spectacular fall was in the offing. He was a difficult, disloyal personality who Johnson should never have brought into the heart of government.

His ignominious departure last November was followed approximately seven months later by the messy exit of Johnson loyalist Hancock, who spectacularly breached social distancing rules he planned and instituted as Health Secretary.

The initial stance of Johnson and Hancock to ride out the breach blew up as even Tory loyalists and constituency associations were enraged at the degree of hypocrisy.

Sixteen months after his abrupt resignation from Johnson’s Cabinet, the well-liked Javid, who demonstrated discipline and good judgement, returned to centre stage as Health Secretary.

Amid the ongoing pandemic, one British newspaper described the new appointment as “arguably the biggest and most challenging of all” for Javid, who has also served as Home Secretary.

Javid has a fresh opportunity to shine and to burnish his leadership credentials. He is currently enjoying the proverbial last laugh. Back in office, the 51-year-old can rekindle alliances and make a mark with the British public and his parliamentary colleagues as the UK battles to emerge from the emergency phase of the pandemic.

Nisim Taleb further observed: “The long game allows you to compound results. The longer you play the better the rewards... The long game is the opposite of the short game. Playing the long game means paying a small price today to make tomorrow easier. From the outside, the long game looks pretty boring...”

LISTEN

Some politicians are narcissists with outsized egos. But some of the more successful know when to temper their egos, while trying to soothe and wrestle with their demons.

Such successful leaders typically listen to their advisors and family members who can help them to discern the moment, to restrain themselves, to breathe deeply, to become calmer, to exercise self-control.

For some, the unsteady flash of egotism, the giddiness of the moment, the lack of political maturity and stability often lead to erratic and wild-eyed actions and the rush to poor judgements including misreading the true intentions and motives of others.

Sometimes the ego becomes maniacal, incapable of restraint, judgement and discipline. Impulse reigns over reason. In the worst examples, it is like an addiction or disorder, hence the terms egomaniac and pathological narcissist.

Long-term vision includes post-frontline politics. Those who leave the frontline might find avenues such as new roles, foundations, mentoring and other means to bequeath wisdom and experience to others who can build on one’s legacy.

Former Presidents Jimmy Carter and Barack Obama have done this successfully in the United States, creating models for post-presidencies. Some who leave parliament might serve in other capacities.

Paradoxically, because life is short, the long game is critical. Because we typically only get certain opportunities, we should be as prepared and ready as possible for them by accruing advantages and a strong hand for when the moment ripens and is ready for the plucking and savouring – and sometimes winning the ultimate prize.