The Tribune

With CHARLIE HARPER

TOMORROW marks the first anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Commemorations have been extensive and substantial.

On Monday, US President Joe Biden managed to visit Kyiv for five hours, make several public appearances with the heroic Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky to reaffirm steadfast American support for Ukraine’s struggle against the Russian army.

The weather cooperated, and the 80-year-old Biden seemed to emerge defiant and vigorous after the physical ordeal of a secret transatlantic flight plus two onerous nine and one-half hour train rides to and from the Polish border to Kyiv.

As has been widely reported, Biden’s clandestine journey was the first time since Abraham Lincoln visited Civil War battlefields outside Washington, DC, that a sitting US president was this close to active combat situations in areas not controlled by the American military.

“I thought it was critical that there not be any doubt, none whatsoever, about US support for Ukraine in the war,” Biden said. “It’s not just about freedom in Ukraine. It’s about freedom of democracy at large.”

On the train ride back to the Polish border, Biden reportedly worked on authorisations for an additional $50m of military assistance for Ukraine.

CNN was reporting at the start of this week that the total American military assistance commitment to Kyiv so far is a staggering $29.6bn. To put this into context, however, the US defense outlay for this year is estimated at $816bn.

Tuesday was a big day also, as both Biden, speaking in Warsaw, and Russian president Vladimir Putin delivered major addresses on the war still raging mostly along slowly shifting battle lines paralleling the Don River in Eastern Ukraine.

Putin, speaking first, delivered a litany of tired shibboleths as he decried Western aggression and framed the current war as developing into a fierce struggle “for the very existence of Russia”. He might be correct. If the Russian military succumbs on the battlefield and exits Ukraine ignominiously with no tangible gains, some rapacious neighbours, particularly in the Far East, might begin to hungrily circle the resource-rich, far-flung largest empire-state on earth.

Later Tuesday, Biden declared “Ukraine will never be a victory for Russia. Never.” The US president looked strong and vigorous – the better to refute scepticism about his advanced age.

Last weekend, an impressive array of American legislators gathered in southern Germany for the Munich Security Conference. Vice-President Kamala Harris was there. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer of New York was there, making only his second Congressional delegation trip in 24 years in the US Senate. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky was there.

Schumer said “this is a critical moment and we have to show the Ukrainians that we have a united front, Democrats and Republicans to help with Ukraine. We are not giving up. We will be with the Ukrainians all the way”.

McConnell added that “what I’m going to underscore is that the national defence team from the previous (Trump) administration is entirely behind the effort (to support Ukraine),” he said. “The leadership of all the national security committees in the House and Senate is behind this effort.”

“Reports about the death of Republican support for strong American leadership in the world have been grossly exaggerated,” McConnell told fellow delegates at the Munich conference. And South Carolina GOP Senator Lindsay Graham added, referring to some of the House ultra-conservatives who have criticised US aid to Ukraine, that “isolationism is not a new concept. Some of these people think they have discovered a new way of looking at the world. Isolationism has been with us for a long time.”

While Biden was visiting in Kyiv, Zelensky reportedly emphasized his military’s need for American F-16 fighter jets to disrupt Russian control of air space over Ukraine. Biden has so far refused these long-standing requests. But as in the recent case of the American-made Abrams main battle tanks, US reluctance to granting Ukrainian weaponry requests has gradually eroded over the course of the first year of this war.

Meantime, a troubling narrative has gained currency in Washington and in Western Europe. That is the notion that, as one national headline proclaimed this week, “Future of Putin’s Rule hinges on war victory in Ukraine.”

Is it so different for Biden? He has been moving inexorably forward to support European resistance to a despotic invader, avowedly after the fashion of US President Franklin Roosevelt’s assistance to Britain under the Lend Lease programme during 1940-1 before the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbour in Hawaii forced the Americans into World War II.

Long-time Senate Foreign Affairs committee veteran Biden has been decisive in making foreign policy decisions. You may not agree with the modalities of his abrupt pullout from Afghanistan, but he was clear and decisive in doing so. And he seems to have major elements of the US foreign policy establishment solidly behind him.

Over the weekend, the Washington Post strongly endorsed Biden’s approach in Ukraine. The Post certainly tilts liberal on many social and some economic issues, but it also reflects the traditional internationalist viewpoint of the mainstream politicians of both parties.

The Post editorialized as follows: “By maintaining and strengthening Western unity in the face of the biggest war in Europe in 75 years, Biden has taken a cautious and calibrated approach in arming Ukraine incrementally. But the lesson from this past year of war is that the risk of escalation is overblown. (Putin) has only manpower and nuclear weapons left with which to escalate. If the West adequately arms Ukraine, he cannot win with manpower. And Putin is very unlikely to deploy nuclear weapons, not least because it would alienate China, his main ally.”

The Post concluded that “this is a pivotal moment in 21st Century history and a critical juncture for US interests, leadership and prestige. Our key objective should be (deterring) autocrats from similar unwarranted wars”.

It’s very difficult to see anything in the events of the past week that would represent a deterrent to Biden’s clear intention to “win” this war with Russia by doing whatever it takes to expel the invaders. That assessment may be modified in the months to come if the Ukrainian war of attrition continues without many tactical gains by our allies.

But we all have to hope that the Post’s optimistic assessment of the likelihood of deployment of Russian nuclear weapons is correct.

TANK FACTORY IN OHIO SEES INCREASED IMPORTANCE

LIMA, Ohio, is a small city located about an hour northwest of the state capital at Columbus. It sits on flat farmland that extends westward, largely unbroken, all the way to the Rocky Mountains in Colorado.

Lima, pronounced with a hard “i” like the vegetable “lima bean,” relies on a mix of manufacturing and agriculture to sustain its 36,000 residents.

But 800 of those residents work in a huge local facility called Joint Systems Manufacturing Center-Lima. A facility in The Bahamas employing a comparable number of workers would offer jobs to nine thousand Bahamians.

This sprawling plant is owned by the US Army and managed by giant US defense contractor General Dynamics.

Lima has been in the news recently because its large defense plant is the only one that produces (and refurbishes) the army’s Abrams battle tanks, many of which are now earmarked for shipment to Ukraine.

And while the plant is reportedly building 15-20 armored vehicles per month - including tanks - it could easily increase that total to 33 a month and could add another shift of workers and build even more if needed.

US Secretary of the Army Christine Wormuth recently told the Associated Press that the timeline on sending Abrams to Ukraine depends on whether the US takes tanks from existing American military training stocks or from Army units, which would be less desirable because it could affect their readiness to fight.

And the development of tanks for Ukraine would also have to be squeezed in between the current contracts for foreign sales, which include 250 of the newest versions for Poland and about 75 for Australia.

Imagine what the loss of 9,000 stable, well-paying jobs would do to our economy here in The Bahamas.

That’s how important continued American support for the war effort in Ukraine could potentially be for Lima, Ohio. And it’s a good illustration of the profound, major economic import of the war effort for the US.