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STATESIDE: Americans migrating based on political lines

TRENDS note that Americans are migrating to states where political views aligned with their own.

TRENDS note that Americans are migrating to states where political views aligned with their own.

With Charlie Harper

From the first days of the American colonies in the 18th century and even before, settlers and then citizens moved fairly regularly from one part of the giant, developing country to another. They were in search of jobs, land, or other economic opportunities.

The occasion might have been the California gold rush. Maybe it was a flight from the 1930s-era Dust Bowl in the Midwest. It may have been a search for jobs in the American industrial revolution in the later 19th century.

One historical reason for large popular migration was the search for jobs and greater social acceptance and economic opportunity as black Americans moved north to large industrial cities seeking relief from post-Civil War oppression in the American South.

The nation’s history is dotted with examples of movement and mobility. The land of even greater opportunity has often beckoned.

Now, a new trend is starting to emerge. People seem to be moving in significant numbers in order to live in areas where others share their political views.

There is a sense that this new and unusual pattern may have been stimulated by the COVID-19 pandemic and its resulting loosening of the requirement for millions of Americans to work in offices. With so much work now possible remotely, this theory goes, people can choose to live almost anywhere they prefer, since they are no longer shackled to an office.

Analysts have reported that these newly mobile people are mostly white-collar workers and retirees. These groups are generally regarded as the two most politically engaged parts of the national population.

The Associated Press featured an interesting story last week with interviews with several families that have recently moved in order to live in an area where the predominant political culture matches their own.

Bret Weinstein, owner of a real estate firm in Denver, said politics has become the top issue for people buying a home.

“It’s brought up in our initial conversations,” Weinstein said. “Three years ago, we didn’t have those conversations, ever.”

“Democrats want to live in places with artistic culture and craft breweries, and Republicans want to move to places where they can have a big yard,” said Ryan Strickler, a political scientist at Colorado State University-Pueblo.

The AP cited several other examples of this new politics-based migration.

Retired Los Angeles police officer Tim Kohl and his family moved to Boise, Idaho, partly to escape the urban sprawl. But they also found an ideological match with their new neighbours.

Kohl did what he never dared to do at their previous house outside Los Angeles. He flew a Thin Blue Line banner supporting law enforcement outside his house.

“We were scared to put it up in California,” Jennifer Kohl said. But the Kohls felt reassured when neighbours complimented them on the flag display.

Leah Dean shares few of the Kohls’ political beliefs, but she might empathize with how they feel. The AP reported that In Texas, Dean had been frightened to fly an abortion rights banner outside her house. As the Kohls were house-hunting in Idaho, she and her partner found a place in Denver, where their gay pride flag flies above the banner in front of their house that proclaims “abortion access is a community responsibility.”

“One thing we have really found is a place to feel comfortable being ourselves,” Dean said.

In response to this new trend, businesses assisting conservatives fleeing blue states have begun to appear. One example is the so-called Blue Line Moving Company, which appeals to families moving from liberal-dominated states to Florida.

And in Texas, a “rainbow underground railroad” run by a Dallas realtor assists LGBTQ+ families escape the state’s intensified restrictions aimed at populations that have become conservative targets.

The AP spoke with Mike McCarter, who spearheaded a campaign to encourage conservative eastern Oregon to secede from that liberal state in order to become part of adjoining, profoundly more conservative Idaho. McCarter said most people didn’t pay much attention to state government until the pandemic hit in 2020.

“Then it was like ‘Oh, they can shut down any church and they can shut down my kids’ school?’” McCarter said. “If state-level government has that much power, you’d better be sure it reflects your values, and not someone else’s values that are forced on you.”

It’s probably way too early to ascribe great significance to this emerging trend. For one thing, COVID seems done and employers are reportedly tightening down on workers’ ability to work remotely.

And in many cities across the country, commercial real estate vacancy rates are stalled at uncomfortably high rates, often more than 20 percent.

This really squeezes municipal governments who rely heavily on commercial taxes to support their tax base. As time passes, there are more and more reports of private and public sector employers expressing disappointment with remote worker productivity.

Also, it would be incorrect to ascribe to political comfort the surge of population in states like Texas and Florida, where sunny weather (at least until this month’s dramatic, deadly heat waves arrived) and the absence of state income and pension taxes have long been major attractions to newcomers of all political stripes.

Still, stories like those of the Kohls and Dean are another discouraging reminder of how America’s toxic political environment is infecting decisions traditionally free of such considerations.

US AMBASSADOR APPOINTMENT IN LINE FOR CONFIRMATION, BUT IS WAITING FOR SENATE TO ACT

It would no doubt have been preferable for a sitting American ambassador to be present at our 50th birthday celebrations earlier this month. But as has far too often been the case for much longer than the past decade, the American Embassy has been led by a Charge d’Affaires.

However talented these acting ambassadors have been over the years, the absence of a Senate-confirmed chief of mission is perceived by many Bahamians as a diplomatic slight. And It is not unusual to hear comments suggesting that this failure to send us an ambassador is more than merely a slight. It is seen by some as an outright insult, a disheartening reminder of our relative lack of importance in Washington thinking.

But that’s often not true, and it isn’t true at present either. US President Biden has nominated Calvin Smyre, a 76-year-old distinguished former Georgia state legislator who built an impressive record in and beyond Georgia during his long career and has strong connections to both Morehouse College and Fort Valley State in Georgia. Both schools have long-standing ties in The Bahamas.

Smyre’s nomination for the Nassau embassy was submitted to the US Senate in May 2022, so we and he have been awaiting his confirmation for 14 months. This is not unusual in Washington these days.

American Secretary of State Anthony Blinken chose on Monday to try to prod the Senate into action on Smyre and many others: Presidential nominations often can move through the Senate during the summer. But Blinken complained that “at present, the State Department has more than 60 nominees with the Senate. Now, that number is going to keep going up, as more sitting ambassadors complete their tours and more nominees come forward.

“By the end of the summer, we expect Egypt, Israel, Jordan, and Lebanon will all be without confirmed US ambassadors,” Blinken told reporters. “Eight nominees are awaiting confirmation for posts in African countries. And it’s not just the Middle East and Africa where we’ve got this problem. Ambassadorships are open in Asia, in Europe, in Latin America and the Caribbean, as nominees await confirmation.”

Blinken went on to say that “foreign governments know that ambassadors carry the full weight of the President of the United States and the United States Senate. As a result, ambassadors often have greater access and influence which they can use to advance the interests of our country”.

Summing up his effort to shame the Senate into action, Blinken said “here’s who loses out when we don’t have a US ambassador in place in a given country: American companies, investors, and entrepreneurs who want to do business there. American citizens who live in that country or experience an emergency while they’re overseas. American students who study there, American tourists who visit. And the citizens of those countries who yearn for – and benefit from – deeper ties with the United States and with our people.”

The Secretary of State’s remarks seem to be quite appropriate to our situation here in The Bahamas.

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