The Tribune

By RASHAD ROLLE


Tribune News Editor


rrolle@tribunemedia.net

TUESDAY’S unofficial voter turnout of 58 percent would mark a “horrible” collapse in participation if confirmed, Parliamentary Registration Department election consultant Geoffrey McPhee said yesterday, warning that turnout appeared to have fallen below even the 2021 snap election held under COVID-19 conditions.

Recounts began yesterday in 25 constituencies and were not completed by press time, leaving the official turnout figure unsettled.

“58 percent is a blow,” said Mr McPhee, who stressed that this was not the official figure but was based on the numbers officials were able to assess on election night. “Our folks, we have gone south with respect to excitement about elections. That is really, really, that’s horrible.”

“Based at what we’re looking at now, the numbers are saying that we voted even less (than during COVID). COVID numbers were better than this.”

“That’s tragic, because with elections, once they miss the election, they don’t feel the urgency to reengage.”

The apparent slump would be a sharp break from the country’s post-independence voting history, when turnout routinely exceeded 88 percent before collapsing in 2021 to about 65 percent.

The first general election after independence was held on July 19, 1977, when 62,818 of 70,905 registered voters cast ballots, a turnout of 88.6 percent. Turnout rose to 90.4 percent in 1982 and remained above 90 percent in 1987.

Participation stayed high through successive changes of government. Turnout was about 91 percent in 1992, when the Free National Movement ended the Progressive Liberal Party’s long hold on government, and about 93.2 percent in 1997, when the FNM won 34 of 40 seats.

Turnout was 90 percent in 2002, 91.38 percent in 2007 and 90.6 percent in 2012.

Even in 2017, when the first clear decline emerged, 160,409 of 181,543 registered voters cast ballots, a turnout of 88.4 percent.

The historic rupture came in 2021, when published turnout summaries listed 126,271 votes cast from 194,526 registered voters, or 64.9 percent.

If the 58 percent estimate holds, Tuesday’s election would fall well below that mark.

The low turnout came as the PLP secured a commanding second consecutive term. Unofficial results showed the party winning 33 of 41 seats, nearly matching its 2021 landslide, when it captured 32 of 39 seats and drove the FNM from office.

Prime Minister Philip “Brave” Davis acknowledged the lower-than-expected turnout, saying it was not good for any democratic society and that more must be done to ensure every voter feels their ballot matters.

Insiders said the highest turnout in New Providence was likely in Fort Charlotte, where former Island Luck CEO Sebas Bastian beat FNM candidate Travis Robinson by 2,300 votes amid 72 percent turnout.

Matt Aubry, head of the Organisation for Responsible Governance, said yesterday that the apparently low turnout should concern Bahamians regardless of political affiliation.

“We do not believe low turnout automatically means people do not care,” he said. “In many cases, it may mean people care deeply but do not feel adequately heard, represented, or convinced that participation will lead to meaningful change in their everyday lives.

“During ORG’s voter education work throughout the election season, we heard many comments, particularly from young and first time voters, expressing frustration and fatigue with campaigns that often felt heavily centered around personalities, sensational sound bites, and political cycles, while many Bahamians continue to struggle with very real issues like cost of living, economic opportunity, crime, energy costs, housing, and public trust.

“At the same time, we continue to hear growing concerns around transparency, accountability, procurement practices, campaign finance reform, access to information, and whether citizens genuinely feel included in decision making between elections. These issues came up repeatedly because people increasingly understand how directly governance affects their daily lives, opportunities, and confidence in leadership.

“There were also concerns raised around preparedness and efficiency during portions of the advanced polling process, as well as ongoing public frustration around the apparent lack of adherence to laws and standards related to treating and gifting by multiple political parties throughout the campaign season. Additionally, the seemingly late and only partial rollout of biometric voter cards, combined with widespread speculation and misinformation on social media, may have contributed to confusion and concerns among some voters that could undermine confidence in the electoral process.”