The Tribune

By LARRY GIBSON THE recent visit by President Martelly of Haiti, and comments he made to a gathering mostly of Haitian nationals and Bahamians of Haitian origin, continue to provoke much highly-charged discussion. No matter where you fall on the immigration issue, all this recent discussion highlights the need for clear, transparent and uniformly administered immigration policies. The immigration problems that we face today are largely the result of 40 years of turning a 'blind-eye' to such0 issues. This weekend, I came across a January 7, 2006, edition of The Economist, which carried an article entitled Incredible Shrinking Countries. The article suggested that contrary to popular thinking the world is not headed towards overpopulation but rather, in many developed countries, the population will actually shrink by mid-century. The article states that by 2050, the United Nations (UN) predicts populations will be lower than they are today in 50 countries, including China. In fact, shrinking population is already being felt in Japan, Italy and Germany. In certain Eastern European countries the fall is expected to be far more dramatic, with Russia's and Ukraine's populations projected to fall by 22 per cent and 43 per cent, respectively. The impact of a shrinking population The Economist wrote: "Demographic decline worries people because it is believed to go hand-in-hand with economic decline. At the extremes it may well be the result of economic factors: Pessimism may depress the birth rate and push up rates of suicide and alcoholism. "But, in the main, demographic decline is the consequence of the low fertility that generally goes with growing prosperity. In Japan, for instance, birth rates fell below the replacement rate of 2.1 children per woman in the mid-1970s and have been particularly low in the past 15 years." The concern among global political leaders is that if your population contracts, then so, too, does your economy. Businesses then become concerned because a direct consequence of economic contraction would be shrinking domestic markets and so on. In the geopolitical scheme of things, a country's international importance and world ranking is directly related to the size of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP). There is also another demographic factor that developed nations will have to contend with, which is the fact that - as the first set of baby boomer reach retirement - the working age population is projected to decline more rapidly than the overall population. Attracting skilled labour This helps us to understand why countries such as the US and Canada have for years had provisions allowing educated and skilled immigrants to settle in their respective countries with relatively little or no public fanfare, while simultaneously mounting a very public campaign against unskilled labourers entering the country. For instance, we know all about the Mexicans crossing the Rio Grande River or being smuggled across the border in Southern California, but the chemical engineer or physician and his/her family entering through JFK, O'Hare of Dallas-Fort Worth International Airports goes quietly unheralded. For years now the US has implemented a system whereby they grant H1-B visas, which allow highly skilled workers to work in the US for a period of six years. After this period, determinations can then be made about the future status of these persons. Silver Lining To offset the potential GDP negatives associated with a declining population, the combination of raising worker productivity and extending the retirement age could mitigate - or certainly help defer - an economic slowdown. In recent years, productivity has been driven by the greater use of technology in the workplace. The irony is that as we increase technology in the workplace, the skill levels required of employees also moves higher. Implications for the Bahamas It is probably fair to say that nobody seems to know exactly how many illegal immigrants reside in the Bahamas today. While unemployment is currently at historic levels, every day employers still bemoan the fact they cannot find suitable employees. This is most paradoxical and really speaks to the need for focused and meaningful national (public and private) investment in training. The reality is that, for the most part, many unemployed do not possess the skills (and attitudes) required in today's workplace. To service the new Bahamian economy, our 'productive work force' will have to grow significantly, along with productivity levels. In my column of November 8, 2005, I noted the comments of Malcolm Martini, the Government's planning advisor at the time, who indicated that the population of New Providence (NP) alone could probably grow to 300,000 persons by 2015. The latest statistics peg New Providence's population at around 200,000-250,000 persons currently. Our work permit population has, and continues to be, overwhelmingly unskilled workers from the region who tax our social system heavily, while also requiring on-the-job training. Second, worker productivity, or more correctly, the lack thereof, is an ongoing challenge that the Bahamas must address forthwith. I would be very surprised if the Bahamas' experience over the next 50 years (i.e. shrinking population) mirrors that of the developed nations simply because we could have a burgeoning population dominated by unskilled, illegal immigrants (with very high birth rates) who, in turn, tax our already sub-par public education system, and our public health system, if we do not plan properly. My view is that our experience will be the opposite (i.e. population growth) for the reasons cited above, and the fact that we seemingly cannot stop the uncontrollable flow of illegal immigrants. Also, while issues such as CSME have quieted down for now, it will come forward again, with pressure to allow the free movement of people. As we are the nearest country to the US, and the standard of living is high, we will get more than our share of both legal and illegal migrant flows. Similarly, we also need to come to grips with the fact that we will require skilled immigrants to help us build, expand and sustain our economy. This is why I fundamentally believe that we ought to develop policies based on the H1-B-type visa model for the future. This is not a popular position within the country today (one for which I receive criticism), as we tend to be very xenophobic at times...but then again, a popular position may not be the most visionary position at all times. Conclusion The country needs to come to grips with some facts: Once a person is granted Bahamian status he is a Bahamian, and not some form of 'hyphenated Bahamian' such as Haitian-Bahamian or Jamaican-Bahamian. In a transparent way, we need to regularise those deserving of status and move on. All new citizens must be required to take and pass some sort of citizenship course. To keep the Government accountable and transparent, a list of all new citizens should be published monthly. We need to proactively manage the ratio of skilled to unskilled immigrants entering the Bahamas through more effective immigration policies, and better management of the entire process. We cannot wait for another 40 years before giving immigration the much-needed attention it deserves. If we continue to turn a 'blind eye', we are exposing ourselves to significant social, economic and political risks. I submit that the Bahamas deserves better. Until next week... NB: Larry R. Gibson, a Chartered Financial Analyst, is vice-president - pensions, Colonial Pensions Services (Bahamas), a wholly-owned subsidiary of Colonial Group International, which owns Atlantic Medical Insurance and is a major shareholder of Security & General Insurance Company in the Bahamas. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of Colonial Group International or any of its subsidiary and/or affiliated companies. Please direct any questions or comments to Larry.Gibson@atlantichouse.com.bs