The Tribune

THE second of two strong tropical disturbances crossing the Atlantic was becoming better organised yesterday.

According to AccuWeather.com’s expert senior meteorologist Alex Sosnowski said it appears to be a matter of time before this becomes the next tropical depression and storm of the season.

“The tropical Atlantic seems to be slowly awakening from its slumber,” said Mr Sosnowski in his report.

According to Tropical Weather Expert Dan Kottlowski: “The system now over the south-central Atlantic already has a weak circulation.”

The system is much more removed from dry air and dust that has plagued the tropical development zone farther to the north in the region thus far this season.

“Satellite information has revealed some very high tops on the thunderstorms within the system’s circulation,” Mr Kottlowski said.

High cloud tops are an indication of intense thunderstorms. The turning of these clouds in a cyclonic nature often is a precursor to tropical development within a few days.

“There is the potential for the system to soon become the Atlantic’s fifth tropical depression and could garner the name Ernesto as it moves across the Lesser Antilles and the Caribbean Sea,” Mr Kottlowski said.

If it avoids the larger, mountainous islands in the Caribbean, while at the same time stays far enough away from South America, it would be a plus for development.

According to Meteorologists Mark Mancuso: “There is a tendency for tropical systems to not develop while in the eastern Caribbean, but rather before crossing the Lesser Antilles or waiting until reaching the western Caribbean, perhaps due to the proximity to the large land mass of South America.”

While the most recent and ongoing tropical wave was delivering needed rains to the northern Caribbean islands, the system lurking in the shadows has the potential to cause some problems and more disruptions to daily activities if it gets going, AccuWeather.com said.

People in the Caribbean, Central America and along the Gulf Coast of the US should continue to monitor the track and development of this system, the report said.

The system cruising through the northern Caribbean at this time was battling some wind shear and has yet to develop a significant surface low pressure area, despite some drenching thunderstorms.

Despite the lull in activity over the past month and increasing El Niño indicators, AccuWeather.com meteorologists are anticipating an average year in terms of the number of tropical storms and hurricanes this season.