The Tribune

EDITOR, The Tribune.

 Former Free National Movement (FNM) Leader and Prime Minister Hubert Ingraham has made it abundantly clear to the press on the night of the elections that he will officially resign from the House of Assembly, after serving as member of Parliament for the Cooper's Town/North Abaco constituency for 35 years. Ingraham has kept his word by tendering his resignation letter to the speaker of the House of Assembly Dr Kendall Major on July 19.

I understand that his resignation will take effect in August. I believe Ingraham views the results of the May 7 general election as an outright rejection of his style of leadership. Obviously, the Bahamian people have made it clear that they want the nation to go in a different direction. Now, the people of North Abaco look set to go into a hotly contested by-election. The Progressive Liberal Party (PLP) already has a candidate who has had some experience by contesting the recent elections, Renardo Curry. On the other hand, it looks like the FNM has yet to name its candidate, even though I hear rumours of one Greg Gomez being the favourite potential candidate of the opposition party. 

I read on an Internet newspaper that FNM Leader Dr Hubert Minnis (Killarney) has moved his public relations machinery to North Abaco. It looks like the opposition party is prepared to fight tooth and nail in order to keep North Abaco in its win column. Prime Minister Perry Christie recently told the press that the pressure is on Dr Minnis to win in North Abaco. He has to win in order to gain more clout in the FNM. A victory for the FNM would certainly solidify his standing within the opposition party. It would prove to many FNMs that Dr Minnis can lead their party to election victories. On the other hand, a loss could be disastrous for him.

To be sure, the time has come for the FNM to prove once and for all to its detractors that it can win general elections without Ingraham at the helm. Former FNM Leaders Sir Cecil Wallace-Whitfield, Sir Kendal G L Isaccs, Sir Orville Turnquest and Tommy Turnquest all had failed to do what Ingraham had done in 1992, 1997 and 2007: Win a general election. If Minnis wins in 2017, he will only be the second FNM leader to win. The FNM has to get this monkey off its back. I think a win in North Abaco would give Minnis a much needed shot in the arm. 

 Even though North Abaco is considered an FNM bastion, the opposition candidate might still struggle to win in that area. Ingraham managed to win by just 379 votes against his PLP opponent. What's more, Curry won five of the 12 polling divisions. Certainly, the PLP candidate is a formidable opponent. If the former prime minister struggled to win against Curry, do we honestly expect Gomez to fare any better? Still, I believe that this by-election contest will be a referendum on Minnis. Can he rally FNMs as Ingraham was able to do when he was leader? If Curry wins that seat, he might end up squatting in that area for years to come. Just look at Yamacraw. That constituency was an FNM bastion for 20 years until the legendary Janet Bostwick was unseated by the PLP's Melanie Griffin in 2002. Bostwick first won that seat in 1982. Griffin has pulled off three consecutive victories in that area, 2002, 2007 and 2012. Yamacraw has become an impregnable PLP bastion. That is why it is of the utmost importance for the FNM to win.

But galvanising the troops after a devastating loss on May 7 may prove a difficult task. Why even bother to vote in an election that would not give your party the reins of government? If the FNM were to lose, it would only have eight seats. And the PLP would have 30. Obviously such a scenario would hardly make any difference. Still, I am of the view that the odds are heavily stacked in the PLP's favour because it is now the government of The Bahamas. What's more, the war chest of the FNM is broke. It has been reported in the press that the opposition party is heavily in debt. Judging from the effective campaign that the PLP ran, it looks like the party was awash in money. The PLP spent a boat load of money in North Abaco in an attempt to unseat Ingraham. It is expected that the governing party will do the same thing again.

Even though North Abaco is considered FNM country, I believe that this by-election will also be a referendum on Christie and his fledgling administration. Three plus months after the general elections, what is the mood of the nation? Are the majority of the 75,000-plus Bahamian voters who supported the prime minister pleased with his performance thus far? What about the 1,800-plus North Abaco voters who supported Curry? It is likely that this upcoming contest will give us some idea about the mood of the electorate. If the PLP loses, then one might argue that the governing party has lost momentum since May 7. With over 75 per cent of the seats in the House, it will be difficult for the PLP to keep that much steam that it had in the run up to May 7. i

In any event, both Christie and Minnis will be in the dock on by-election day. Make no mistake about it, this electoral contest will not really be between Curry and whoever runs for the FNM. It will be between Christie and the new FNM leader.

 KEVIN EVANS

Freeport,

Grand Bahama,

July 19, 2012.