The Tribune

By Larry Gibson

In its Charter for Governance, the then-opposition Progressive Liberal Party (PLP) promised that if elected, in its first 100 days, it would: “Hold a referendum of the general Bahamian population to determine whether it is the desire of Bahamians to legalise the numbers business. A new PLP Government will be guided by the results.” This, then, became the contract with the Bahamian people upon winning the Government.

Recently, the Prime Minister announced that the much-anticipated referendum on gambling will be held on December 3, 2012. He later said it will not be a referendum but, rather, a poll. Mr Christie also stated that based on advice received from UK consultants, the idea of a National Lottery will not be pursued primarily due to our small population size. This proposition, however, is totally inconsistent with the facts and history of other small island states in the Caribbean, who have much smaller populations and GDP per capita income. Therefore, the ‘poll’ will be on the sole question of whether web shops should be decriminalised.

Ever since this announcement, there has been - and continues to be - much public discussion over the matter. Listening to the talk shows, various discussions and newspaper articles, it is clear to all that the level of public confusion is at an unprecedented and unacceptable level.

Legislation

If a government wishes to legalise (or regularise) the numbers business, it can simply amend existing laws on the books or introduce new legislation. I am told that a simple amendment to the Gaming Act would suffice.

Many Bahamians are of the view that after 40 years of independence, the country should have reached a level of maturity where we can address the entire gaming question, which includes a national lottery and casino gaming for Bahamians in their own country.

Successive governments in the Bahamas have turned a ‘blind eye’ to the numbers business and other forms of illegal gaming since time immemorial. Why has this been the case? If the truth be told, the great hypocrisy is that many electoral campaigns have benefited from political contributions derived from such activities. Therefore, the existence of a massive ‘conflict of interest’ and ‘crisis of conscience’ have overwhelmed the need to do what is right in the nation’s best interest.

Ruling political parties have pretended that the numbers business did not, and does not, exist. A natural consequence of such political inaction over the years is that the industry has grown exponentially, and some operators have grown obscenely wealthy. I am reminded by a quote from a noted economist, when he admonished that: “A majority view can be nothing more than well-financed minority view.”

Referendum

The Oxford Dictionary defines a referendum as “a general vote by the electorate on a single political question by the electorate, which has been referred to them for a direct decision”. A referendum is rarely used in most countries, and in the ‘British Commonwealth’ context it almost always relates to constitutional issues.

Citing Wikipedia: “There are two types of referendum that have been held by the UK Government, pre-legislative (held before proposed legislation is passed) and post-legislative (held after legislation is passed).

“Referendums are not legally binding, so legally the Government can ignore the results. For example, even if the result of a pre-legislative referendum were a majority ‘No’ for a proposed law, Parliament could pass it anyway, because Parliament is sovereign.”

The implication of ‘parliamentary sovereignty’ is that no Parliament can bind a future Parliament, but convention and tradition would make it unlikely that a future Parliament would reverse a decision approved by referendum.

Poll

I am at a loss to understand exactly what a poll in the current context will mean or accomplish. I question why go through the expense of a ‘general election’ type exercise for this single question. One is left to presume that the Government has determined it is in the national interest to seek the opinion of the electorate at large. What happens if there is a very low voter turnout? Historically we get over a 90 per cent turnout for general elections, but what if voters shun this exercise?

If the country is only conducting a ‘poll’ at this stage, it would be far cheaper to hire at least two market research firms to conduct a scientific poll on this and other closely-related questions. You would certainly get more information from this process than simply asking Bahamians to mark ‘yes’ or ‘no’ to the question: “Should web shops be legalised?” If we are in the business of polls, let us have them conducted by professionals.

Right now, there is a conspicuous lack of leadership regarding this whole process. At first it seemed as though the current decision was based upon a report issued by foreign consultants. Then we were told that there is no written report in this regard, and now we are being told that the consultants will be flown into the country, presumably to answer the public’s questions.

I am told that a referendum has a constitutional impact.If the lack of a constitutional impact is the reason for the downgrade to a mere poll, why are we rushing this whole exercise? There is a pressing need for more clarity on the goals and objectives of this exercise which, to me at least, seems to be shifting. Many of the persons I have come into contact with seemingly have no interesting in voting in this exercise…at least at this time. Are there some ulterior motives that the public is not being told?

Until next week…

NB: Larry R. Gibson, a Chartered Financial Analyst, is vice-president - pensions, Colonial Pensions Services (Bahamas), a wholly-owned subsidiary of Colonial Group International, which owns Atlantic Medical Insurance and is a major shareholder of Security & General Insurance Company in the Bahamas.

The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of Colonial Group International or any of its subsidiary and/or affiliated companies. Please direct any questions or comments to Larry.Gibson@atlantichouse.com.bs