The Tribune

EDITOR, The Tribune.

  North Abaco now has a Progressive Liberal Party (PLP) member of Parliament in the person of Renardo Curry. Since 1986 or thereabouts, when Hubert A Ingraham was expelled from the then governing PLP party under Sir Lynden O Pindling, North Abaco has not had a PLP representative in 26 years. The Free National Movement (FNM) had hitched its wagon to the itinerant gospel minister and educator Greg Gomez. The PLP's public relations machinery had pulled out all the stops in going after the FNM candidate.

The PLP had raised many questions concerning Gomez's past and present work status. His declared salary of $28,000 per annum had also become fodder to chew on. Seeing that he is currently unemployed, the now famous declaration had raised many eyebrows in the press – and many prying questions, of course. The PLP went out of its way in conveying the idea that the FNM candidate's resumé had more holes than Swiss cheese. In the end, the people of North Abaco probably rejected Gomez because there were just too many unanswered questions about him. Whatever the fallout from this latest setback for the FNM is, no political analyst can rightly put the blame for this loss at the doorstep of the leader of the Opposition, Dr Hubert Minnis (Killarney). There are rumours in the press that Gomez wasn't even his choice.  If this is true, Minnis has no reason to feel embarrassed. If truth be told, Gomez should shoulder some of the blame for this loss. I believe that he had put his party in a precarious position by not being straightforward about his enigmatic past. He had dug too deep a hole for the FNM to get him out of. 

Even without the controversy surrounding its candidate, the FNM was going into this by-election as the clear-cut underdog, by virtue of the PLP holding the reins of power. The last thing the party needed was a candidate with glaring question marks. Moving forward the FNM party must place its candidate nominees under a strenuous vetting process. The opposition party must accept the fact that this country leans towards the PLP. The unofficial results of the by-election show that Curry has won eight of the 12 polling divisions. Interestingly, the unofficial numbers also show that of the 4,438 registered voters in North Abaco, only 3,887 voters had voted in the by-election. This means that 551 North Abaconians who are registered voters stayed away from the polls. In the May 7 General Election, 4,130 persons had voted in that constituency. For reasons unknown, 243 of the 4,130 persons who had voted on My 7 did not bother to vote on October 15. It tells me that 551 Abaconians probably didn't see the point in voting in the by-election. Their reasoning was probably this, ''Whatever will be the final outcome on the night of October 15, the PLP will still be the government of The Bahamas.''

Looking at the overall numbers from hindsight, the 511 persons who stayed away from the polls would not have changed the outcome of the final results had they supported Gomez. Had all 511 voted for Gomez, he would have polled 2,024 votes as opposed to just 1,513 votes he received. Even with their votes he still would have lost to Curry by 343 votes. Curry, according to the unofficial results, received 2,367 votes. Ali MacIntosh, of the Bahamas Constitution Party (BCP), got just seven votes.

In the May 7 contest, Curry got 1,856 votes to Ingraham's 2,235 votes. Looking at the by-election results, Curry has gotten 511 more votes than he had gotten in the general election. In fact, the PLP candidate had out-numbered Ingraham's 2,235 votes by 132 votes. Whereas Ingraham was able to win polling divisions one, two, four, five, six, seven and 10 on May 7; Curry was only able to win three, eight, nine, 11 and 12. In the by-election, however, the fortunes had turned in Curry's favour. He was able to win polling divisions one, three, seven, eight, nine, 10, 11 and 12. Gomez, on the other hand, only won polling divisions two, four, five and six. After losing polling divisions one, seven and 10 on May 7, Curry was able to gain upset victories in those polls in the by-election. Whereas Ingraham had gained 135 votes in polling division one, Curry had gotten just 107 votes. However, in the by-election, Curry got 140 votes to Gomez's 105 votes. In polling division seven, Ingraham received 189 votes to Curry's 130 votes. In the by-election, Curry got 157 votes and Gomez received 154 votes. In polling division 10 on May 7, Ingraham got 222 votes to Curry's 158 votes. In the by-election Curry got 213 votes to Gomez's 121 votes. The FNM received a thrashing in polling divisions three, eight, nine, 11 and 12 on May 7 and again on October 15. Here is a breakdown of the polling results on May 7 and October 15. The reader must bear in mind that I am using the unofficial results of the by-election. As of the time of writing this letter election officials have yet to release the official results of the by-election. Ingraham got just 36 votes to Curry's 76 votes in polling division three. In the by-election, Curry got 82 votes to Gomez's 32 votes. In polling division eight in the general election, Curry got 279 votes to Ingraham's 137 votes. In the by-election, Curry got 315 votes to Gomez's 70 votes. The BCP candidate got two votes. In polling division nine on May 7, Ingraham received just 127 votes to Curry's 345 votes. In the by-election, Curry received 360 votes to Gomez's 54 votes. The BCP got one vote. In polling division 11 on May 7, Ingraham got 178 votes to Curry's 210 votes. In that same polling division in the by-election, Gomez got just 101 votes to Curry's 249 votes. The BCP got three votes. And in polling division 12, Ingraham got 148 votes to Curry's 158 votes. Gomez received only 75 votes to Curry's 203 votes. The BCP got just one vote. In polling divisions three, eight, nine, 11 and 12 on May 7, Curry received a grand total of 1068 votes to Ingraham's mere 626 votes. Ingraham was out gained by 442 votes in those polling divisions. In those same polling divisions on October 15, Curry received a total of 1,209 votes to Gomez's 332 votes. Gomez was out gained by 877 votes in those polling divisions. The overall numbers show that Gomez was defeated by 854 votes. On the other hand, Ingraham was only able to beat Curry by 379 votes on May 7.

Curry's impressive margin of victory is very similar to the margin of victories that Prime Minister Perry G. Christie and other senior PLP parliamentarians had received on May 7 in the Over-The-Hill areas of New Providence. These areas in Nassau are considered to be PLP strongholds. Moreover, even the claims of victimisation at the hands of PLP operatives had failed to resonate with the people. Despite claims of persons being threatened and bullied by PLP operatives, the governing party nearly destroyed its main challenger at the polls in a constituency that had voted FNM in the last five general elections.

Obviously, something is awfully wrong with the FNM party. Too many of its candidates are outpolled by wide margins in these elections. So what have we all learned from the final results of the by-election? The by-election results show us that North Abaco is now a PLP bastion. I believe that Curry will remain that area's member of Parliament until he is either called home to be with the Lord or retires. I have said before that the only reason that the FNM has won that seat in 1992, 1997, 2002, 2007 and 2012 was because of Ingraham.

The FNM must now come to grips with the fact that Gomez is no match for Curry. He was simply manhandled. Moving forward, the FNM must now find another candidate from the North Abaco community to go up against Curry in 2017, God willing. The Gomez experiment has failed miserably. I expected him to lose, but not that badly. North Abaco rejected him outright. The FNM must now regroup after having suffered humiliating losses on May 7 and October 15. If it hopes to win the general election and North Abaco in 2017, the party must get candidates who can resonate with voters. If it cannot do this, it will continue to be in the opposition.  The North Abaco by-election results should serve as a wake up call for the FNM. It must get its act together before 2017.

KEVIN EVANS

Freeport,

Grand Bahama,

October 16, 2012.