The Tribune

WHILE Dorian is likely to remain disorganised, disruptive downpours will hit the Bahamas from today and spread northwestward from the islands by the end of the week.

In most cases, Dorian’s impact will be an unwanted downpour or brief squall, but for a few locations, it could be more significant, says Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist at AccuWeather.com.

Dorian is essentially a tropical wave, or a very weak tropical disturbance at this time, but it still poses travel disruptions and perhaps occasional risks to lives and property.

People in the path of Dorian should continue to monitor the system, especially from the standpoint of enhanced rainfall, possible flooding and locally gusty thunderstorms.

During Tuesday, locally drenching showers and gusty thunderstorms will affect parts of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the southern Bahamas and western Cuba.

During Wednesday into Thursday, areas likely to be impacted the most from Dorian would be the central and southern Bahamas to central Cuba.

From late Thursday into Saturday, the area from the northern Bahamas to South Florida and central and western Cuba would have the most impact from the system.

The odds are greatly against Dorian from becoming a hurricane, and it may never regain tropical storm status.

Popular cruise stops in Nassau and Freeport, bathers and sun worshipers could face some disruptions. Locally gusty storms could cause delays at the airports in Miami, Tampa and Orlando. Occasionally, the downpours associated with the struggling system can organise into something a bit more robust.

These unpredictable flare-ups of showers and thunderstorms can produce torrential rainfall and gusty winds.

Several inches of rain can fall in as many hours and winds could be strong enough to down trees, power lines and cause minor property damage.

Localised torrential downpours can lead to urban and low-lying area flooding, while strong wind gusts can catch small craft operators offguard.

Disruptive winds at mid-levels of the atmosphere will be the main deterrent to explosive redevelopment of Dorian. The system could totally break up over or near the Florida Peninsula toward this coming weekend.