The Tribune

By NEIL HARTNELL

Tribune Business Editor

nhartnell@tribunemedia.net

The tourism industry’s direct contribution to Bahamian gross domestic product (GDP) is projected to increase by 5.2 per cent in 2013, it was revealed yesterday, showing services will remain the nation’s “economic linchpin for this generation”.

Responding to the World Travel and Tourism Council’s (WTTC) projections for Bahamian tourism, which forecast a 4.1 per cent growth in the sector’s employment level, Robert Sands, Baha Mar’s senior vice-president of external and government affairs, said the survey proved the industry would be the nation’s economic mainstay for years to come.

In its report, which has been obtained by Tribune Business, the WTTC said the tourism industry accounted for $1.719 billion or 22 per cent of total GDP in 2012.

This figure, which represents the activities generated by hotels, travel agents, tour operators and tour/excursion providers, was forecast to grow by 5.2 per cent in 2013 to hit $1.809 billion.

And, backing Mr Sands’ projection that tourism was set to maintain its position as the Bahamas’ largest industry, the WTTC forecast that the industry’s direct GDP contribution was set “to grow by 2.8 per cent per annum to $2.392 billion (24.3 per cent of GDP) by 2023”.

The WTTC report added: “The total contribution of travel and tourism to GDP (including wider effects from investment, the supply chain and induced income impacts) was $3.785 billion in 2012 (48.4 per cent of GDP), and is expected to grow by 5 per cent to $3.975 billion (49.3 per cent of GDP) in 2013.

“It is forecast to rise by 2.8 per cent per annum to $5.254 billion by 2023 (53.3 per cent of GDP).”

Both the immediate term and 10-year forecast provide evidence that the Bahamas is on track for a tourism industry rebound, following a lean period post-2008 financial crisis and subsequent recession.

On the employment front, the WTTC said the tourism industry accounted for 52,000 jobs or 30.6 per cent of total employment in the Bahamas in 2012.

It projected that this figure was set to grow by 4.1 per cent or 2,000 jobs to hit 54,000 in 2013, with the latter figure accounting for 31.3 per cent of total jobs in the Bahamas.

These figures, the WTTC said, included all hotel, travel agent and airline workers, plus those providing tour and ground transportation services.

“By 2023, travel and tourism will account for 66,000 jobs directly, an increase of 2.1 per cent per annum over the next 10 years,” the WTTC survey said.

“The total contribution of travel and tourism to employment (including wider effects from investment, the supply chain and induced income impacts) was 97,000 jobs in 2012 (57.4 per cent of total employment).

“This is forecast to rise by 4 per cent in 2013 to 101,000 jobs (58.7 per cent of total employment). By 2023, travel and tourism is forecast to support 126,000 jobs (63.1 per cent of total employment), an increase of 2.2 per cent per annum over the period.”

It is unclear where the 2,000 extra direct tourism jobs, and further 2,000 indirect jobs, will come from, but it all points to an economy becoming ever more reliant on tourism.

Mr Sands told Tribune Business: “Certainly, there’s no question that tourism will remain one of the significant linchpins in generating economic activity for the country going forward, both in terms of GDP and employment contribution.”

Noting that the projected 2.1 per cent average employment growth rate over the next decade might spike in 2014, when the $2.6 billion Baha Mar development opened, Mr Sands said that project and other tourism-related expansions, plus associated infrastructure upgrades such as the Lynden Pindling International Airport (LPIA), represented the “past and the future for the Bahamas”.

“The reality is that we are a services-driven economy, and until such time there is the introduction of something else, we are going to be very dependent on services, whether it be financial services or tourism and hospitality services,” Mr Sands added.

“That’s the main linchpin of our economy going forward. Certainly, for this generation that’s going to be the way forward.”

While New Providence would remain the Bahamas’ economic anchor, Mr Sands said activity was likely to ultimately spread to the Family Islands.