The Tribune

By NEIL HARTNELL

Tribune Business Editor

nhartnell@tribunemedia.net

A top investment banker yesterday said he saw “no reason” to change his prediction that the Bahamian stock market will end 2013 up 10 per cent, following the release of data showing its rebound had extended into an eighth month.

Michael Anderson, RoyalFidelity Merchant Bank & Trust’s president, told Tribune Business that data produced by the Bahamas International Securities Exchange (BISX) showed that the listed equities market was already up 5.18 per cent year-to-date.

This came on the back of a 2.92 per cent rebound in BISX’s All-Share Index for the 2012 fourth quarter, when it rose by 38.25 points from 1308.1 to 1346.26.

Up to yesterday’s trading close, the BISX All-Share Index was ahead by 69.7 points at 1,415.96, and Mr Anderson said such a performance meant there was “no reason to change” the rebound prediction he had given to Tribune Business earlier this year.

“It’s only May and it’s already up 5.2 per cent,” the RoyalFidelity chief told Tribune Business. “There are a number of good buys, and if people sit down and so some investigation and analysis, they’ll see where the real opportunities lie.”

Mr Anderson said the Bahamian economy was yet to reap the full benefits of its recent heavy infrastructure investments, with the $2.6 billion Baha Mar project joined by New Providence’s new port, roads and airport.

“In 2014 and 2015, the economy should start to show much more growth than it’s currently experiencing, so there are great investment opportunities for people at the moment,” Mr Anderson added.

While encouraged by the continuing All-Share Index pick-up, Keith Davies, BISX’s chief executive, said he wanted to see it persist for another two quarters before labelling it a certain ‘trend’.

“We’ve been in the recession for such a long time, and we are seeing little blips where the market begins to catch itself,” Mr Davies told Tribune Business.

Noting that accumulated savings appeared to have been re-entering the Bahamian equities market towards year-end 2012, looking for higher yields and returns, the BISX chief added: “I would surmise they were looking for avenues for relief and investment.

“What we are seeing is people coming back into the market, looking for deals and opportunities, because in the long-term the market provides the best returns of anything out there.”

Indicating that Bahamian investors were becoming more confident and realising there were strong listed companies, Mr Davies said: “The trend is continuing.

“The market is moving in a positive direction, and let’s hope that continues through the next two quarters. This is what happens when accumulated savings come back into the market, and people evaluate the companies and think they can invest in them.

“We’re having some good price discovery and good activity in there.”

The year-end recovery was not enough to completely counteract earlier declines, the BISX All-Share Index for the 12 months to end-December 2012 falling by 18.73 or 1.37 per cent to 1346.26

That decrease, though, was less than the 8.97 per cent decrease suffered by the BISX All-Share Index for the 2011 full year.

Still, the BISX All-Share Index’s overall 1.37 per cent decline for 2012 meant the Bahamian equities market was going in the opposite direction to major market indices.

The S&P 500 Index closed 2012 up by 13.29 per cent, while the MSCI Emerging Market Index and FTSE 100 were ahead of 2011 by 15.15 per cent and 5.84 per cent, respectively.

Noting that its market capitalisation totalled $2.87 billion at the 2012 year-end, BISX added: “Trading volume for the 12-month period ending December 31, 2012 was 4,080,393 shares for a value of $18.892 million. For the three-month period from October 1 to December 31, 2012, 679,075 shares traded for a value of $3.732 million.

“By comparison, trading volume for the 12-month period ending December 31, 2011, was 2,899,465 shares for a value of $15.016 million. For the three-month period from October 1 to December 31, 2011, 840,608 shares traded for a value of $5.18 million.”

As for trading volume, BISX said: “For the 12-month period ending December 31, 2012, the average daily trading volume was 16,146 shares, which resulted in an average daily trading value of $74,433.

“During this 12-month period, May 2012 saw the highest average daily trading volume and value with 41,072 shares and $149,795 trading, respectively.

“By comparison, the 12-month period ended December 31, 2011, saw an average daily trading volume of 11,451 shares, which resulted in an average daily trading value of $59,674.”