The Tribune

By PETER YOUNG

IN THE run-up to the European Parliament election this week the debate in Britain about the European Union (EU) has taken centre stage. The impetus has been the emergence of a new political party – the United Kingdom Independence Party, known as UKIP, whose principal aim is to secure Britain’s withdrawal from the EU.

Founded in 1993, UKIP has gained momentum relatively recently and latest opinion polls suggest a victory for the party on Thursday, with the Conservatives being pushed into third place behind the opposition Labour party. UKIP is also expected to do well in the local council elections in England and Northern Ireland which take place on the same day.

The turnout to choose Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) for a five-year term is likely to be relatively low. Such elections attract protest votes against a national government and MEPs are often regarded as unimportant and lacking influence when the real power lies with the EU Commission in Brussels and with the Council of Ministers.

However, if UKIP performs well in this and in the local council elections, its chances at a by-election in Newark (a Midlands constituency in England) on June 5 will receive a substantial boost and could result in this new party winning its first parliamentary seat at Westminster.

Under its charismatic and articulate leader, Nigel Farage, UKIP has already done well in previous local council elections, securing around 22 per cent of the vote, and is gaining an increased following. So his claim that his party will soon bring about an earthquake in British politics has become less far-fetched than was the case even a few months ago.

The so-called Eurosceptics are no longer confined to MPs on the right of the Conservative party. UKIP’s rise in popularity reflects a ground swell of anti-EU public opinion with increasing opposition amongst more and more voters to what they perceive to be growing EU interference in Britain’s affairs (“we don’t want Europe running our lives” is the cry) and many feel that EU integration has gone far enough.

Having previously dismissed the anti-Europe UKIP as a bunch of “fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists”, prime minister David Cameron has had to admit that they are now becoming a growing force in British politics and, to that extent, could split the right-wing Tory vote at the General Election next year, thus paving the way for a new Labour government.

Mr Cameron has now undertaken to renegotiate the terms of Britain’s EU membership with a view to limiting the EU’s powers, including a guarantee that the nation will never be forced to join the Euro and will be exempt from the aim of ever closer union.

He has also announced a cast-iron guarantee to hold an in-out referendum by 2017, whether or not he can negotiate a better deal, if he is elected prime minister next year.

In light of Mr Cameron’s unfulfilled promise before the last General Election in 2010 to hold a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty, some critics have doubts about the guarantee of a referendum after 2015.

The last official test of public opinion about Britain’s position in Europe was the 1975 referendum, when people voted in favour of continued membership of the then European Economic Community (also known as the Common Market). This was, at that stage, a small grouping of European countries working together as a trading bloc and markedly different from today’s expanded EU pressing forward relentlessly towards full economic and political union as a European federal superstate.

Although some powers will probably be given back by Brussels, anything meaningful could be blocked by the national governments of other member states. Moreover, any movement on core EU values is most unlikely; for example, the free movement of people and labour across all 28 member states.

This has become a major issue in the debate in Britain about the country’s future relationship with Brussels. Public opinion has hardened against unfettered immigration so that there is growing pressure for it to be restricted or controlled; but the prime minister has firmly reiterated his belief that this fundamental EU rule of free movement must stay.

Backed up by the prediction of Migration Watch, an independent and non-political body which monitors migration flows to and from the UK, that up to 500,000 EU migrants could come to Britain in the next five years, Farage has caused controversy and apprehension by highlighting the dangers of mass immigration from poorer EU countries. UKIP claim that this would place an intolerable strain on a range of local public services and could lead to a breakdown of society.

UKIP’s further progress will depend crucially on the performance of Farage himself. Privately educated at a well-known boarding school, he worked in the City of London as a commodities broker before entering politics as a founder member of UKIP and has been an MEP since 1999. He claims to be the only party leader to have had a “real job” and has nurtured a populist image as a down-to-earth man who enjoys drinking beer in pubs and understands the concerns of the general public.

Farage maintains that UKIP is on the centre ground of public opinion and does not want to be linked to the far right. But, if his party is to succeed, he will have to guard again accusations of bigotry – in particular, racism, xenophobia and homophobia – and weed out extremists within his party.

A clear sign that the political establishment recognises UKIP’s advance as a legitimate player was the recent TV debates between Farage and deputy prime minister Nick Clegg. Farage was judged to be the winner. If the televised debates between the party leaders before the 2010 General Election are to be repeated in 2015, he will surely insist on being included.

The burning political question now is whether the prime minister’s commitment to EU renegotiation and a referendum will slow down, if not reverse, support for UKIP even though mass dissatisfaction and disillusionment with the mainstream parties could influence many to back it anyway.

Despite UKIP’s progress, voters might ultimately steer clear of what appears to be a one-horse (Europe) party unless it can successfully develop realistic policies in relation to the broad range of issues of major concern to the public. That is what will convince the electorate that this nascent party is a genuine contender for power and can become a real political force as a viable alternative to the existing long established parties.

The results on Thursday might not produce Farage’s predicted political earthquake in Britain but the spectacular emergence of UKIP has undoubtedly already produced tremors.

It remains to be seen whether he and his party will succeed in changing Britain’s political landscape in the longer term.

• Peter Young is a retired British diplomat living in Nassau. From 1996 to 2000 he was the British High Commissioner to the Bahamas.