The Tribune

By NEIL HARTNELL

Tribune Business Editor

nhartnell@tribunemedia.net

Bahamas Junkanoo Carnival organisers yesterday forecast that the event will be generating a profit by its third year, with the economic impact increasing by 20.5 per cent over the inaugural 2015 version.

Paul Major, the Bahamas National Festival Commission’s chairman, unveiled projections showing that a $5.323 million ‘loss’ on the Government’s initial $9.323 million investment in this year’s Carnival will be transformed into a $1 million ‘profit’ by 2017.

According to the data exhibited by Mr Major at yesterday’s National Conclave of Bahamas Chambers of Commerce, the Carnival will generate some $4 million in revenue in 2015, with this sum increasing to $7 million next year and $9 million in 2017.

With 2016 ‘expenses’ (likely government subsidies) pegged at $8.6 million, the Commission is forecasting that the Carnival’s ‘loss’ will drop to $1.6 million for that year.

But, with 2017 revenues growing to $9 million, and just $8 million in ‘expenses’ predicted, the forecast is that Bahamas Junkanoo Carnival will be $1 million ‘in the black’ by its third year.

However, Mr Major said the National Festival Commission viewed the Carnival’s gross domestic product (GDP) impact as the key economic variable.

This is forecast to be $27.988 million in 2015, increasing to $30.089 million in 2016 and $33.725 million by 2017.

The GDP impact, Mr Major said, represented the economic activity stimulated among small and medium-sized Bahamian businesses, and entrepreneurs, in the cultural economy spread across New Providence, Grand Bahama and the Family Islands.

“I truly believe that in three years we’re going to be the Caribbean Carnival,” Mr Major said. “It’s all about trying to create an economic platform for culture in the Bahamas.”

Addressing the $9 million subsidy being pumped into this year’s Bahamas Junkanoo Carnival, he added: “The bottom line is the velocity of the $9 million flowing through the economy is going to result in a $27 million GDP impact.”

That is equivalent to a three times’ multiplier effect, and Mr Major said Carnival organisers had already spent $4.8 million, of which $4.2 million had remained in the Bahamas.

“This $9 million is going to get spent. It’s just a question of what it’s going to be spent on,” he added.

“Every person on the road [participating in Bahamas Junkanoo Carnival] represents $200-$300 of economic activity, and it’s putting some guys on income rather than sitting on the blocks. We need to get them into the income stream. These guys are at the bottom end of the strata.”

Mr Major said Bahamas Junkanoo Carnival was effectively attempting to “flip the script” by having more persons participating, and in the streets, than spectating.

This, he implied, will be the opposite of the Boxing Day and New Year’s Day Junkanoo parades, which are designed for viewing.