The Tribune

The Bahamas desperately lacks the “game changers” needed for the 5 per cent GDP growth rate needed to “break the back” of double-digit unemployment, the Chamber of Commerce’s chairman said yesterday.

Gowon Bowe told Tribune Business that the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) latest statement had brought home “the harsh realities” facing the Bahamian economy in the short-term.

With no immediate resolution in sight for the stalled $3.5 billion Baha Mar project, Mr Bowe said the Bahamas would be “unable to change its economic fortunes” and break out of its existing “status quo mode”.

Instead, it was facing the prospect of “bumbling along” with annual GDP growth rates of less than 2 per cent - a level insufficient to make significant inroads into a 12 per cent unemployment rate (which is likely to increase post-Baha Mar lay-offs) and associated social problems.

Disclosing that Bahamas Chamber of Commerce and Employers Confederation (BCCEC) representatives had enjoyed “an extensive conversation” with the IMF team during its December 7-11 visit, Mr Bowe said this nation urgently needed to identify a new economic direction.

“I believe the harsh realities of the Bahamas now is that we really have to identify what our growth prospects are going to be,” the Chamber chairman told Tribune Business.

“We certainly have a number of projects in the works, but none of them are what I would call GDP growth game changers.”

Mr Bowe added: “We have anemic growth of less than 2 per cent. We can debate whether it’s 2 per cent, 1.5 per cent or 1 per cent, but to change our economic fortunes we need growth as high as 5 per cent.

“We can’t have projects that are on stream that just maintain the status quo. While we need those to ensure we do not slip into a recession or negative growth, we need the game changer or changers that are going to spike growth to 5 per cent, lead to a cut back in unemployment and take the stress off tax and tax initiatives, because that will only further hamper economic growth.”

The Government has recently announced numerous investment projects that appear to be ‘on the drawing board’, including Freeport’s $250 million Phase V Container Port expansion; Mediterranean Shipping Company’s (MSC) Ocean Cay cruise port; and the $94 million boutique resort on South Cat Cay.

Existing developments, such as Albany and Baker’s Bay, are also continuing to expand and create jobs - just not fast enough to keep up with a growing workforce that is bolstered every year by between 3,500-5,000 high school graduates.

No so-called “game changers” of the sort cited by Mr Bowe come easily to mind, indicating that the Bahamas may be stuck with low growth for some time.

Mr Bowe emphasised that Baha Mar was never going to be the Bahamas’ “economic saving grace”, given that the economy would have continued growing without it.

However, its expansion would have been considerably faster had the mega resort opened on schedule, with the BCCEC chairman describing the project as “the jolt” intended to spur the Bahamas on to greater heights.

Mr Bowe said the ongoing delay in resolving Baha Mar’s fate meant its completion and opening “are going to be pushed well into 2016”, with “all the experts saying it will take at least nine months to get open”.

The IMF, in a statement on its Nassau mission, cited the Baha Mar delays as the main factor behind its latest growth forecast cut for the Bahamas. It slashed 0.7 percentage points off its 2016 estimate, pegging this nation’s likely GDP expansion at 1.5 per cent.

“In reality, they’re saying we’re going to bumble along at 2 per cent growth or less,” Mr Bowe told Tribune Business. “Are we in recession? No, but are we going to be able to change our economic fortunes?

“No. We’re going to be in status quo mode. It just means we’re going to have continued unemployment, and with continued unemployment we’re going to have continued social ills.

“Because people are not gainfully employed, they will get up to mischief and people will seek other means to fund their lifestyles.”

Mr Bowe recalled the various construction phases during the 1990s and early 2000s that produced Paradise Island’s Atlantis resort, and how foremen reported rival gang members setting aside their differences because they were employed and earning money.

“You had arch enemies working side by side because they were making money and feeding their families and babies,” Mr Bowe told Tribune Business.

“Now, they’re unemployed and if they run into each other in a social setting, our lack of social breeding is going to lead to more violence and social ills. We need a jolt to break the back of unemployment.”

Mr Bowe warned that the Bahamas would “always be playing second fiddle” unless it established proper planning and development units within the Government, and changed the way it conducted business.

He agreed with Khaalis Rolle, minister of state for investments, that the Bahamas’ constant slippage in the World Bank’s ‘ease of doing business’ rankings stemmed from the fact it was effectively ‘standing still’ while other nations bypassed it via proactive reforms.

Mr Bowe cited Jamaica, which leapfrogged 30 places in the latest World Bank rankings because it transformed the civil service mentality relating to bureaucracy and approvals, and made it easier to form a business and get electricity service.

“We continue to appear to be doing the same things we’ve been doing in the past,” he told Tribune Business. “While these are not necessarily negative, we’re certainly not improving our competitiveness.

“Jamaica did not stand still or walk. They’re running. If you’re standing still, people are running by you. We don’t have a proper Infrastructure Planning Unit. If we do not put in proper planning units, we will always be playing second fiddle. We have to be develop strategies, not react to changes.”