The Tribune

By NEIL HARTNELL

Tribune Business Editor

nhartnell@tribunemedia.net

Total jobless numbers have remained the same for the past two-and-a-half years, official Government data released yesterday revealed, prompting fears that the economy continues to “flat-line”.

K P Turnquest, the FNM’s deputy leader, told Tribune Business that the 2.8 percentage point increase in the nationwide unemployment rate to 14.8 per cent in early November 2015 proved the economy is not growing fast enough to provide work for all Bahamians seeking jobs.

The Labour Force Survey data, released by the Department of Statistics, revealed that the total number of unemployed persons increased by 25.6 per cent between May and November 2015.

While the spike would have been partly due to Baha Mar’s 2,000-plus layoffs, the data shows the total number of Bahamian jobless increased by almost 6,400 between those six months - from 24,980 to 31,375.

This suggests that most of the increase, a rise of between 3,000-4,000, was not due to Baha Mar, with other explanations including the end to temporary jobs associated with Bahamas Junkanoo Carnival and major international sporting events hosted by the Bahamas.

However, the main non-Baha Mar factor for the unemployment spike in November, at least compared to May, is likely to be the addition of several thousand high school leavers to the workforce during the summer. They would not have been included in the May data.

A close examination of the Department of Statistics data shows the Bahamas, and the Christie administration, have made little to no progress in reducing a chronically high unemployment rate, and all the problems and social ills that stem for it.

The 31,375 jobless total for November is almost exactly the same as the 31,665 who were unemployed in May 2013 - some two-and-a-half years ago.

With total jobless numbers standing at 27,665 in May 2012, the figures suggest the Christie administration has achieved little when it comes to cutting unemployment, and that the Bahamas may even be close to going into reverse. November’s unemployment total is also close to the three-year peak of 31,805, achieved one year ago in November 2014.

The data again indicates that the Bahamian economy is simply not growing fast enough to cut both the existing unemployment rate and smoothly absorb 3,000-4,000 school leavers into the workforce every year.

The November Labour Force Survey revealed that the total labour force (employed and unemployed workers) had increased by just 1.6 per cent in the six months since May - rising from 208,895 to 212,195.

Yet the total number of employed workers had actually shrunk over the same period, dropping by 1.7 per cent from 183,915 to 180,820 - even both figures are the highest and second highest for the past five years.

Mr Turnquest told Tribune Business that the data showed the Bahamas was both “flat-lining and losing jobs”, while agreeing that the increased unemployment rate came as little surprise given events over the past six months.

“We’re not growing significantly enough to have a positive impact on the employment rate, especially among the youth,” the FNM deputy leader said.

“We seem to be losing jobs rather than gaining jobs, despite the rhetoric. It paints a picture of an economy that is not only flat but one that is not growing at the rate we need to absorb all the youth entering the job market.”

Youth unemployment (15 to 24 year-olds) increased between May and November to 30 per cent, meaning that almost one out of every three Bahamians looking for work is unable to find it.

And the total unemployment rate means that more than on in seven Bahamians seeking gainful employment are unable to find work.

While acknowledging that Baha Mar accounted for a substantial proportion of the unemployment increase, Mr Turnquest said at least 3,000 jobs must have been lost elsewhere.

He pointed to the weak construction industry, plus the end to temporary Carnival and sporting event jobs, as the likely culprits.

“It paints a very unfortunate scenario as to where we are, and where we’re headed under the current dispensation,” the FNM deputy leader said in reference to the report, also taking a swipe at the Christie administration.

“We’re flat-lining and losing jobs. It’s particularly hard to take for those people looking for employment when you look at the Hilton project and it’s imported labour.

“If you observe the construction site, they seem to have foreign labourers, not skilled people but labourers. One has to question the Government’s investment strategy, and who are we building the Bahamas for?”

Apart from the thinly-veiled dig at the Christie administration’s close relationship with the Chinese, Mr Turnquest indicated that the Bahamas “has to be concerned” about a possible creditworthiness downgrade to ‘junk’ status by international credit rating agency.

He argued that all economic indicators were moving in the wrong direction, with Baha Mar stalled; the middle class shrinking; economic growth lacking; unemployment rising; increased taxes and more on the way.

“Where are we going to catch wind? Where is this growth going to come from?” Mr Turnquest asked. “Which sectors?

“The projects that have been talked about are self-contained projects - Mediterranean Shipping Company, Carnival - where the employment will be relatively little in comparison to the numbers we are talking about.

“Where is the bump we need going to come from? The easiest answer, opportunity for us is to get Baha Mar open by hook or by crook. Get the job done.”