The Tribune

By NEIL HARTNELL

Tribune Business Editor

nhartnell@tribunemedia.net

An FNM leadership contender has expressed concern that the Government is usurping the private sector’s role as chief job creator, after unemployment increased 10.2 per cent year-over-year.

Loretta Butler-Turner accused the Government of “focusing on percentages that sound good” in relation to the latest jobless figures, while also failing to create the necessary enabling environment for business to thrive.

Speaking after the Department of Statistics revealed the results from its latest Labour Force Survey, conducted in May 2016, the Opposition’s labour force spokesman argued that the reduction in unemployment since November 2015 largely stemmed from temporary jobs created by Bahamas Junkanoo Carnival.

The official data heralded a 2.1 percentage point decline in the Bahamas’ national unemployment rate, from 14.8 per cent to 12.7 per cent, over the six-month period to end-May 2016.

However, much of the improvement is thought to be related to the numerous temporary jobs created in the run-up to Bahamas Junkanoo Carnival, which was held around the time the survey was conducted.

And comparing May’s unemployment figures to November’s is viewed by many observers as relatively meaningless, as the two bi-annual Labour Force surveys are conducted against different backdrops and circumstances.

While May typically produces a drop in the unemployment numbers and rate, due to events such as Junkanoo Carnival, and the peak winter tourism season, the figures traditionally spike in November.

This is because that period captures the impact of between 3,000-5,000 annual high school leavers entering the workforce, which usually increases the jobless figures because the Bahamian economy is not growing fast enough to absorb them all.

As a result, many believe the year-over-year comparisons provide a better guide as to how the Bahamian economy is faring in providing sufficient jobs for its people.

Comparing May 2016 to May 2015 paints a much different picture to the six-month comparison employed last week by the Government’s Department of Statistics.

This shows that, compared to May 2015, the total number of unemployed Bahamians actually increased by 10.2 per cent or more than 2,500 year-over-year, rising from 24,980 to 27,520.

This suggests that the 2,000-plus lay-offs from Baha Mar are still working there way through the economy, as are recent high school graduates still struggling to find permanent employment.

Moving the comparisons further out reveals that the total number of Bahamians unemployed at May 2016 almost exactly matches the total from two years ago - 27,520 versus 27,435 in May 2014.

This indicates that while the economy may be keeping pace with new entrants to the labour force, it has been unable to do both this and slash the existing number of jobless Bahamians.

Mrs Butler-Turner, meanwhile, said she was concerned about the quality of jobs being created, arguing that those created by Bahamas Junkanoo Carnival were largely temporary.

She also questioned why the Labour Force Survey was coinciding with the Carnival, suggesting it provided a misleading indicator of the true unemployment picture.

“We see a two-three week decrease during the time of Carnival,” Mrs Butler-Turner, the Opposition’s labour spokesperson, told Tribune Business.

“Clearly, it is not a sustainable position. Those [Carnival] industries are temporary industries. It is not a sustainable position for any government to count on. We obviously realise that is a short period of time.”

She added: “What the Government should do is create a climate where people’s long-term goals can be achieved.

“While these latest statistics speak to a decrease, we see that it’s not a sustainable position, and the Government has very little to be happy about in this regard.”

However, there were some bright spots that the Christie administration can point to. These include the drop in youth unemployment among 15 to 24 year-olds, which - although still too high - fell from 30 per cent in November 2015 to 25.8 per cent.

The number of discouraged workers, those who have given up looking for work because they believe no jobs are available, also fell by 10 per cent over the same period. On New Providence and Grand Bahama, the number of discouraged workers fell by 14 per cent and 16 per cent, respectively.

Mrs Butler-Turner, though, expressed concern that the drop in the unemployment rate since November 2015 had come mainly from government-financed initiatives (Carnival) rather than the private sector.

“This decrease was not brought about by the private sector,” she told Tribune Business. “We are doing this all on borrowed money that we will have to repay.

“This speaks to the fiscal approach the Government is taking, and not encouraging the growth of small and medium-sized businesses.

“The big problem we have is that the Government it attempting to create jobs, as opposed to creating an environment where small businesses empower themselves to create employment,” Mrs Butler-Turner continued.

“The Government has to be able to have mechanisms in place for business to have confidence, and banks to have the ability to lend, so small businesses can create employment for a wide cross-section of Bahamians. The Government has failed miserably on that.”

Mrs Butler-Turner pointed out that the total number of Bahamians was higher than this time last year, and added: “While the Government is looking at a percentage that sounds good, the reality is that more and more people are out of a job and looking for work.”

Suggesting that the Government had done little to solve the plight of redundant Baha Mar staff, she said: “They’re basically looking at percentages when the impact in the community is much greater than they’d like to admit.

“I’ve spoken to the fact that the Government is devoid of ideas, devoid of mechanism to get people back to work in meaningful, sustainable jobs.”

Since the 2008-2009 recession, the only sectors of the Bahamian economy appearing to show meaningful employment growth have been web shops, security companies and fast food businesses.

Acknowledging that this spoke to a lack of higher-paying, quality jobs, Mrs Butler-Turner said the growth of the web shop industry had both negatively impacted her Long Island constituency and hindered its recovery from Hurricane Joaquin.

“While there may be a slight increase in employment in the web shops, the down side is the decrease in money circulating in the economy,” she explained to Tribune Business.

“It is evident by the number of businesses closing down rather than expanding. We’re also seeing attrition in terms of population numbers due to the lack of economic growth.”