The Tribune

Theresa May caught people unawares last week by calling a snap election for June. Peter Young explains why another poll is necessary . . .

Since last week’s announcement of another national poll on June 8, the British press has enjoyed highlighting the immediate reaction of a lady described as ‘Brenda from Bristol’ who, on hearing of Prime Minister Theresa May’s decision to call a general election, was heard to cry ‘no, not again, there’s too much politics’. This seemed to sum up the national mood of understandable weariness of election overkill.

Most recently, Britain has had a Scottish independence referendum in 2014, a general election in 2015 and the London mayoral election last year followed by the referendum about the nation’s future relationship with the European Union (EU). So, perhaps Brenda was right about public fatigue. However, Mrs May has described the forthcoming poll as the most important general election for the country in her lifetime.

Having unexpectedly made her announcement after earlier denying any suggestion of an election, the Prime Minister’s first step was to overcome the Fixed Term Parliaments Act which dictated that the next one should be held in 2020. She quickly achieved that when Members of Parliament voted overwhelmingly to back her decision. Thus, the starting gun has been fired and campaigning is already under way.

In calling an election now, less than a year after she was chosen by the Conservative Party as its leader following David Cameron’s resignation over the result of the EU referendum, Mrs May’s main purpose is to strengthen her hand, through greater certainty and stability, in securing the best possible deal in the negotiations for Britain’s departure from the EU.

She clearly believes that she needs a mandate and increased support - the government’s current working majority is 17 in a parliament of 650 seats - both within her party, which is still divided over Europe, and from the country as a whole to have the authority to pursue a form of ‘Brexit’ which will be broadly acceptable to the public even though 48 per cent voted in the referendum to remain in the EU.

Having triggered Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty and launched the two-year negotiating period to leave, she also wants to avoid the distraction of an election in 2020 because, at that point, the EU negotiations are likely to have reached a pivotal stage.

The Prime Minister outlined her government’s strategy in a major policy speech at Lancaster House in London in January which was followed by a White Paper, and she has famously stated that ‘Brexit means Brexit’ from which there can be no turning back. That means leaving the single market, with its free movement requirements, as well as the European Court of Justice, thereby regaining control over the country’s borders and restoring the sovereignty of the Westminster Parliament. But, ideally, it should also involve selective compromise in other areas.

Mrs May claims that the poll in June is in the national interest and she has called for unity, though critics are already saying that this is a vain hope. She has been accused of cynical opportunism; but, clearly, she has acted out of party political interest by seizing the agenda in this way in an attempt to build meaningful political power.

Inevitably, the plans for ‘Brexit’ are being actively opposed by, for example, the Liberal Democrats and the House of Lords (with its high Liberal Democrat representation) as well as others of the ‘Remainers’ who refuse to recognise the result of the referendum.

So her legitimacy as leader needs to be reconfirmed, since it is undesirable for any British government to enter the most important negotiation for the nation in half a century with individuals seeking to derail ‘Brexit’ while undermining its leader’s authority and questioning a mandate which derives from a decision of the people taken in a referendum nearly a year ago.

With a current lead over the opposition Labour Party of more than 20 points, a landslide Tory victory looks to be on the cards. Despite being under the grip of the hard Left, Labour’s beleaguered leader, Jeremy Corbyn, will doubtless receive praise, if not adulation, from the party’s traditional grassroots supporters, though that is unlikely to translate into public support - not least because his own left-wing views, including those on security issues, do not resonate with voters. The result is poll ratings showing that he may be unelectable as the nation’s leader.

The Scottish National Party will probably romp home north of the border, and the threat of new moves towards Scottish independence, with the resultant possible break-up of the United Kingdom, remains.

Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats may claw back some support after their disastrous showing in the last election so there is already talk of some sort of opposition minority coalition to challenge the Conservatives, who have dismissed this as a potential ‘coalition of chaos’ which would disrupt ‘Brexit’ and put the economy at risk.

Notwithstanding all this, it would be unwise to regard this election as a foregone conclusion. While ‘Brexit’ will take centre stage, the economy and general competence of the government will also be to the fore - for example, current issues like rises in national insurance and other taxes, welfare and public services, foreign aid and grammar schools. The Conservatives need to build trust with assurances about lower taxes and a smaller state and not neglect their base.

In the first-past-the-post system, what matters is not the share of the overall vote but the party with the most seats. So the Tories will no doubt focus on marginal seats, in particular those traditional Labour constituencies which voted for ‘Brexit’. Be that as it may, all agree that an effective opposition is required to hold the government to account and to offer constructive criticism for it is this which lies at the heart of Britain’s democracy.

The last few years have been tumultuous for British politics. A Tory victory in June should finally settle the issue of Europe. Strong and stable leadership will be needed to achieve a satisfactory ‘Brexit’ which will have to include compromise in order to find a way through a negotiating minefield.

With a new mandate, Mrs May will be able to speak for Britain as a whole. She will need to seek to make a deal with Brussels which will respect the views of the majority but also reflect the concerns of the minority 48 per cent. This will be a testing task, for sure, because it will mean trying to ensure a balance between quitting the EU’s main institutions - thereby being free, for example, to trade with the rest of the world on Britain’s own terms - and continuing to co-operate fully with EU countries in as many other fields, and at as many levels, as possible in order for the nation to remain properly engaged with Europe.

To ‘Brenda from Bristol’ all this politicking may indeed seem to be overwhelming. But, with six weeks of electioneering to come in a busy run-up to polling day, the psephologists in Britain will doubtless be more than happy in their own version of heaven!

• Peter Young is a retired British diplomat living in Nassau. From 1996 to 2000 he was British High Commissioner to The Bahamas.