The Tribune

By PETER YOUNG

The received wisdom about local council elections in the United Kingdom is that they are normally an opportunity, between general elections, for voters to give the national governing party a good kicking with the result that it usually loses seats at this level.

Inevitably, these elections tend to be seen as less interesting or even dull, affecting parochial matters which are of significance only to those directly concerned, and the turnout is usually low.

But voters can deliver a protest in the form of a warning to their party leaders about national issues which are bothering them, and they can do so in the safe knowledge that there is no danger of the governing party losing overall power. The result is that such elections do not usually provide a basis for predicting the outcome of a coming general election.

However, the recent local elections in England, Scotland and Wales did not fit the normal pattern and have therefore been the most interesting for many years because it is rare for such elections to be held so close to a general election (due on June 8), and, as in this case, in the middle of national campaigning. Furthermore, Britain’s future relationship with the European Union (EU) is top of the political agenda and the risk of uncertainty and instability during the ‘Brexit’ negotiations, which are now under way, will have been uppermost in voters’ minds as well as local issues.

These mid-term elections covered 34 English councils, all 32 councils in Scotland and 22 in Wales. The Conservatives made huge gains, picking up more than 450 councillors and securing control of 10 local authorities, which amounted to the largest advance by any government in more than 40 years. This was at the expense of the Labour Party and the Liberal Democrats, which suffered heavy losses, while the UK Independence Party (UKIP) lost 100 councillors and was left with a single seat so that it has collapsed as a political force. The Tories also made major strides in Scotland though the Scottish National Party won overall.

No one can say with certainty how this strong performance by Mrs May’s party will affect the general election next month. But, given the clear connection between the two, most commentators predict that last week’s results will translate into the Tories gaining substantially more seats which could well turn into a landslide victory for them. The latest opinion polls show that they have opened up a 22-point lead over Labour and analysts now say that these figures put them on course to increase their majority by as many as 100 in a 650-seat House of Commons.

As well as relying on their existing voters, the main factors for the Conservatives are likely to be UKIP supporters flocking to them because of Mrs May’s tough stance on ‘Brexit’ and because she has made inroads into traditional Labour strongholds. The Labour Party is weak and disunited and has moved well to the left with the result that it has become so much out of touch with the electorate that it is struggling to attract meaningful support.

If Labour’s tribulations continue, this could harm democracy in Britain in the longer term because a strong opposition is needed to control the excesses of the governing party. But a decisive victory next month will strengthen Mrs May’s hand in the negotiations with Brussels and give her a mandate to implement a so-called hard ‘Brexit’ by leaving the single market and, in her words, regaining control over ‘our own money, our own laws and our own borders’.

As in any general election, there is a range of other issues, both domestic and international, of widespread concern. In particular, immigration from the EU and the rest of the world remains controversial since the Tories are committed to bringing it down to sustainable levels to stop undue strain on public services. But there is much more as well, so the Tory manifesto is awaited with keen interest.

• Peter Young is a retired British diplomat living in Nassau. From 1996 to 2000 he was British High Commissioner to The Bahamas.