The Tribune

By INIGO 'NAUGHTY' ZENICAZELAYA

The year 2018 is turning out to be quite an eye opening experience for Bahamian voters who overwhelmingly brought the current Minnis administration to power in 2017.

It’s a time to witness the same leaders in Prime Minister Dr Hubert Minnis and Deputy Prime Minister K Peter Turnquest, who both voted against the implementation of VAT in 2014 (with the former going as far as to say, “Increasing taxes is a lazy way out...when you don’t want to think, you just tax”) turn around and “pimp slap” Bahamians with a 60 percent increase.

It’s a time to witness our current Minister of Health, Dr Duane Sands, backtrack on his island-hopping “healthier diet” tour to defend “corned beef and grits” while fruits and vegetables are nowhere to be found on the breadbasket items list.

It’s a time when Bahamians are wondering how “processing and garment manufacturing equipment” as well as “fabric softener” somehow got on the duty free list while baby bottle warmers and sterilisers still come in at a 45 percent duty rate.

It’s a time to hear our Minister of Finance and DPM basically say “if you can afford an expensive car you can afford to pay duty out every orifice” while simultaneously defending and exempting persons able to afford airplanes.

To quote the rapper Future, “What a time to be alive!”

DEATH and TAXES

Benjamin Franklin got it right when he said, “...in this world nothing can be said to be certain, except death and taxes”.

More and more, it seems death from taxes brings a particular certainty with it, too.

No sooner had DPM K Peter Turnquest announce a VAT hike from 7.5 percent to an astounding 12 percent rate before we heard industry insiders cry foul; Leonard Sands, the Bahamian Contractors Association’s (BCA) president, said the VAT rate hike will force 30-40 percent of Bahamian contractors out of business, essentially killing off half that sector.

The “numbers boys”, facing a separate and additional set of increases (more on that shortly), also said the decision by the government to raise taxes on Web Shop gaming was a “death warrant” to that industry.

Now, I will be frank with you; after regularly chronicling the many money shenanigans and wasteful spending by the last Christie administration, I knew this “V-Day” was coming.

You can’t “ball til ya fall” like the last government did without consequences.

We are at junk bond status.

We’re (sort of) off the EU blacklist “by the skin of our teet”.

We have bills, bills, and more bills.

So what did this FNM government do?

What “lazy” leaders always do in a financial jam- raise taxes.

I don’t like it, but I’m not surprised.

And I’m also no economist or Certified Public Accountant or even especially gifted at math, but I know we have many smart Bahamians in this country who are.

And when I hear my old schoolmate and current president of the Bahamas Institute of Chartered Accountants (BICA), Gowon Bowe, break down why a 10 percent rate increase would have been more “palatable’ to the Bahamian people, I get it.

When I hear former Minister of State for Finance, and current talk show host Zhivargo Laing question the rushy three-year time frame to balance the budget, I get it.

Surely the government should have consulted more local economic experts before making this move.

This decision to raise VAT to 12 percent (in less than a month!) is going to put many Bahamian families and businesses who are on financial life support six-feet under, a fact I’m sure is not lost on the minister of finance who indeed hinted at a period of economic contraction during a recent interview.

Now, the main question is how many casualties will “The People’s Budget” claim?

How many businesses will fall as collateral damage in the FNM’s quest to quickly fix “The People’s Finances”?

Bahamians already feel like “tings tuff” at 7.5 percent. It’s about to get tougher at 12 percent.

Bowe is quoted in The Nassau Guardian saying, “Economics is not a science; it’s an art. And more importantly, economics is built on consumer sentiment, so that as positive sentiments are exhibited, then people react in a positive way...”

I would add that politics is also an art, and the way the Budget has been prepared, presented and defended in the media shows a shocking lack of creativity.

I see no maestro’s hand at work in this budget, but (to no one’s surprise) Dr Minnis has managed to paint his whole administration into a corner.

THE ARTFUL DODGER

Speaking of the good doctor, “where he gone?”

From the day Dr Minnis decided to forgo the usual convention of giving himself (as prime minister) the ministerial portfolio of finance, I recognised he had made a cunning move.

Finance is the most vexing ministry in the whole government.

Fast forward to today and whose name are Bahamians “cussin ta high heaven”?

Why, it’s none other than the man who announced VAT would rise - DPM and Minister of Finance K Peter Turnquest.

Now we all know that PM Minnis had to sign off on this VAT increase. We all know Dr. Minnis and the rest of the Cabinet agree with this increase.

We all know that the back-benchers, who were mostly elected at Minnis’ prodding, were left out the loop.

With 35 elected FNMs, 17 of whom are in Cabinet, the other 18 “voices of the people” on the government side were excluded from the VAT decision altogether.

I wonder why?

Not that it makes a difference.

With the exceptions of Frederick McAlpine (MP-Pineridge) and Reece Chipman (MP-Centreville), the rest of the back-benchers will likely toe the party line.

Which probably explains why their “two cents” was wholly unnecessary; when you act like a place holder, you get treated as decoration.

But why isn’t Dr Minnis “out in dese streets” defending the biggest VAT tax rate in the country’s history himself?

Where is the big press conference? Where is the press secretary, for that matter?

We have had four persons serve as prime minister over the past 45 years.

Over the same period, we’ve had eight persons serve as deputy prime minister. I’m not saying Turnquest could end up on the chopping block because of this VAT fiasco but I am saying the numbers don’t look good.

But like I said, I’m not great at math.

Still, if I were Peter, I would be less bullish and more bearish in these markets.

Dr. Minnis allegedly told a Cabinet minister that he would “rather lose an election than lose a country” in a “private” conversation that minister then conveniently relayed to the media.

Nice soundbite.

But the real question is whether the PM would rather lose a deputy than lose an election?

SIN (City) TAX

The “numbers boys” are about to be hit with massive tax increase, and boy “dey hot!”

Bahamians, on the other hand, are divided; a majority, around 75 percent, think they are getting what they deserve for being greedy and “sneaking” in the back door to legitimacy.

A minority, around 25 percent, feel they are being discriminated against for being young, successful, black Bahamian entrepreneurs.

The “numbers boys” are crying about an industry “death warrant” and the loss of 2000 jobs yet I don’t think this government really cares about their tears.

Truth is, the government stays “grinning up” with Oban Energies (who promised a quarter of the employment that web shops provide) but have shown scornful contempt in their loaded rhetoric against web shop owners.

Clearly, they “ain’t on no numbers boys run”.

The web shop owners say the increase would force the industry back underground.

News flash!

We are living in 2018, where the “Spy Bill” has passed Parliament and a certain neighbouring country may (or may not) still be recording every call, text and WhatsApp message; so essentially there is no “underground”.

This is all shaping up to be quite the standoff.

Why did the Deputy PM admit he doesn’t know the difference between a lottery and gaming?

Why are web shops shunned while the major casinos (which also offer gambling) embraced?

Why do I suspect that if these “boys” are run out of town there are other “respected” businessmen ready to step into the gap?

Find out on next week’s episode of A Comic’s View.