The Tribune

Writing this column on the eve not only of another year but a new decade as well, it is almost obligatory to reflect on immediate past events as well as to look at prospects for the foreseeable future.

On the world stage, the last two decades saw the horrors of 9/11 and the Iraq war together with the financial crisis as well as Putin’s illegal occupation of Crimea and eastern Ukraine, the terrible conflict in Syria and the rise of the brutal so-called Islamic State - and the spectre of terrorism in Western Europe and of the plight of huge numbers of refugees in distress was always there on people’s television screens.

In my own country, Britain, there was a long period of austerity during the last decade, with budget cuts by a coalition government in order to place the nation’s economy back on to a firm footing while Prime Minister David Cameron destroyed his own political career by holding a referendum about the UK’s relationship with the European Union. This past year has ended with an election victory by sitting Prime Minister Boris Johnson who won the biggest Tory majority since Margaret Thatcher during her heyday in the 1980s – and that was surely an apt conclusion to the decade. Like Donald Trump’s success in the US in 2016, it partly represented a populist revolt of working-class voters across the Western world against what have been regarded as the excesses of globalisation and, in Britain’s case, it was a defeat of hard-Left extremism and a victory for Brexit.

This past decade was also a time of patriotic spectacle in Britain like the weddings – with all the traditional pomp and pageantry for which Britain is famed – of Princes William and Harry and a triumphant London Olympic Games. At the same time, there was the downside of a perceptible lowering of standards of politeness and decency in public life brought about partly by the ease of communication via the internet and social media which has spawned so much hatred and vitriol.

What amounts to illiberal and joyless intolerance, sometimes characterised as political correctness, has grown ineluctably in recent years. It seems to me that far too much importance is being given to the views of minorities who are determined to be outraged at the drop of a hat about matters which to most fair-minded people are trivial at best. The new expression ‘woke’, which is loosely defined as being committed to social and political justice - not least being alert to injustice such as racism - is surely an admirable aspiration. But trouble arises when those concerned all too often become intolerant in their beliefs and refuse to accept that alternative views exist, let alone that they should be respected. But there has already been a backlash of ordinary people – sometimes referred to as the silent majority – who resent being harangued by self-styled and self-righteous fanatics.

Meanwhile, what interests most people at this time of year is what may happen during the coming months that will affect their own lives. While conclusions can be drawn from data and trends, the fact remains that much forecasting is flawed because there are invariably too many imponderables. Historically, many were convinced that the French astrologer, Nostradamus, accurately predicted global events from the French revolution to the rise of Hitler, the atom bomb and the assassination of President Kennedy.

Apparently, it can also be inferred from his writings centuries ago that a large earthquake will hit the North American continent in 2020 and that sea levels will rise abruptly because of the melting of Antarctica.

Then there was the Bulgarian blind mystic and clairvoyant, Baba Vanga – dubbed as the Balkan Nostradamus – who is said to have predicted the 9/11 terror attacks and the rise of ISIS. Sceptics question all this. But, just to frighten us all, modern astrologers are now predicting the new decade will kick off with an unspecified once-in-a-generation event that will significantly change the world.

Economic predictions and those related to the weather and climate change tend to be more accurate because they are based on specific data and experience. Reportedly, the evidence suggests growing global prosperity in the coming year, with world stock markets continuing to forge ahead. Following the rise of internet-based firms and the development of new technology, clean energy, electric vehicles and artificial intelligence, the way people work, shop and relax will continue to change. The evidence about climate change is also becoming clearer and suggests the global warming crisis is going to get worse, with higher carbon emissions, temperatures and sea levels. This should surely send a strong message to small island developing states like The Bahamas that urgent action is required in preparing for hurricanes and dealing with their effects - including the need for stronger defences like sea walls - and that there should be strict requirements, for example, in relation to rebuilding in Abaco post-Dorian.

Another major concern is rising inequality has produced a backlash against globalisation. Nations are becoming increasingly inter-connected by air, land, sea and cyberspace. They are bound together by complex and extensive economic networks crossing international borders, and events in one place can have a ripple effect and consequences in others. Economic interdependence based on trade, which creates value and should also help to deter conflict, ought to be welcomed. But a problem exists when some people perceive that they are being left behind by globalisation – and that makes it incumbent on political leaders to ensure that the sovereignty and interests of the nation state are adequately and appropriately protected.

As far as Britain is concerned, it is worth noting - now the argument about Brexit has been resolved - that for the first time in 47 years it will become an independent country again, responsible for its own destiny and its laws, finances, trade and borders. This could herald the advent of an economic surge and national renewal. It is likely that the public will now trust government officials to work out the details of a trade agreement with Brussels so that the emphasis in 2020 can be on domestic politics, with effective action to fulfil the new Tory government’s numerous manifesto pledges; for example, in relation to the National Health Service and social care, crime and the economic resurgence of the North of England.

Amid all this, at a personal level the start of a New Year and another decade is a moment for many people to take stock of their lives and consider whether changes are needed. What about New Year resolutions like losing weight, giving up smoking, joining a gym and taking up yoga, reading more books or simply flossing your teeth daily? For what it’s worth, a Google search will provide the largely useless information that, statistically, more and more people are sticking to their resolutions – as if they would ever admit otherwise!

QUEEN’S CHRISTMAS SPEECH – FOCUS ON MESSAGE NOT THE ATTIRE

I mentioned last week the Queen’s Speech to the nation which, after being pre-recorded, is broadcast on BBC television on Christmas Day. It always contains an inspiring message for people to reflect on at this time of year. The Queen has addressed the nation annually in this way since 1952, with the exception of 1969 when she opted not to do so because a special documentary – “Royal Family” – had been produced during the summer in connection with the Investiture of the Prince of Wales. That year she sent a written message to the people instead.

The speech usually contains a chronicle of the year’s main events and the sovereign’s own personal milestones, and normally there is a theme. This year it was the Christian message of peace and goodwill which, she said, had relevance in modern times and was a reminder of what can be achieved when people abandon their differences and “come together in the spirit of friendship and reconciliation”.

According to reports, it was assumed she was referring to the need to heal differences over Brexit as she stressed the path is never smooth but small steps can help to heal division. She also spoke about climate change and acknowledged the contribution of young people in helping to spur international action to combat global warming.

The Queen talked of “a bumpy year”. This was thought to refer both to the controversy over Brexit and to the various problems of the Royal Family over the past year, from the Duke of Edinburgh’s car crash in January to Harry’s and Meghan’s difficult relations with the media and, more recently, the Prince Andrew scandal.

For her Christmas Day address, the monarch was wearing a royal blue dress and a sapphire brooch set with 12 diamonds. Her outfit prompted the UK press to run an extraordinary story that some academics had claimed that it resembled the EU flag which features a circle of 12 gold stars on a blue background. They concluded from this that the Queen was sending a hidden message of support to the EU.

What they failed to realise, however, was that this particular brooch was a gift from Prince Albert to Queen Victoria on the eve of their wedding in 1840 which had been willed to the Queen and is, apparently, one of her favourites. Nor must they have taken into account that publicly the Queen always stays politically neutral and impartial. So, despite the wide press coverage, perhaps it was really a spoof because the thought of the monarch acting in such a way is so patently absurd as to be laughable. As for the blue dress, one might equally stupidly suggest she was sending a message that she supported Chelsea Football Club as a famous star of England’s Premier League whose kit is royal blue shirts and shorts!

VALUE OF TRUE FRIENDSHIP

Another topic that comes to the fore and gives food for thought at this time of year is the value of friendship as people review their relationships, often with a view to making fresh beginnings.

There is insufficient space here today to do justice to such a broad and fascinating subject. But, just to touch on it, I happen to believe that those who claim to have countless friends often confuse ephemeral acquaintanceship with true and lasting friendship which, as a form of unconditional love, mutual trust and commitment, is both rare and greatly valued by those concerned.

As such, when found it should be nurtured and sustained in accordance with the famous dictum of Dr Johnson, England’s 18th century distinguished man of letters, about the need to keep one’s friendships in good repair.

Some other wise advice, attributed to Ralph Waldo Emerson, America’s renowned essayist and philosopher, is that if one wants a friend it is important to be a friend. This surely means becoming positively involved in the life of another person and genuinely keeping their interests at heart - give and thou shalt receive.

A Happy New Year to all.