The Tribune

By NEIL HARTNELL

Tribune Business Editor

nhartnell@tribunemedia.net

The tourism industry was yesterday “carefully monitoring” the US government shutdown’s impact on air travel amid growing fears it may threaten The Bahamas’ projected arrivals gains.

Robert Sands, Baha Mar’s senior vice-president of government and external affairs, told Tribune Business that the sector was hoping the federal government will re-open “sooner rather than later” to allow The Bahamas to maintain the “momentum” of 16 percent year-over-year stopover arrivals increases throughout 2019.

Speaking after US trade unions representing air traffic controllers, pilots and flight attendants issued a joint warning that their aviation system was being stretched to breaking point as a result of the shutdown, potentially to the point of compromising traveller safety, Mr Sands said the hotel and tourism industry’s concerns matched those of Dionisio D’Aguilar, minister of tourism.

“I think we can confirm precisely the same position the minister outlined over this temporary shutdown in the US; that we would become concerned when it impacts those elements of government that influence travel to The Bahamas,” he told Tribune Business.

“We are certainly concerned about that, and are watching the situation very carefully. We hope the US authorities will come to some agreement that ensures there’s no disruption to the upward momentum of tourism gains in The Bahamas.”

Mr Sands said Baha Mar and other Bahamian hotels/tourism industry players had experienced no impact “at the moment” from the growing airport and aviation woes in the US, which have already resulted in longer waiting times and queues to pass through security as growing numbers of workers stay at home due to not being paid.

“But we are certainly monitoring the situation to ensure it doesn’t pose any threat to the gains The Bahamas has made in the recent past,” he reiterated. “The fact we’ve had historical stopover visitors one year, and that they continue to be up a phenomenal 15 percent, we’d like to see that momentum continue through 2019.

“One of the areas we have to be concerned about is this so it doesn’t disrupt that. We hope cool heads prevail and that there’s a resolution to the matter, hopefully sooner rather than later.”

Concerns that the US government shutdown could impact airlift access to The Bahamas rose dramatically on Wednesday after unions representing aviation workers warned that it threatens to compromise safety and security should it persist much longer.

The joint statement, issued in the names of National Air Traffic Controllers Association (NATCA) president, Paul Rinaldi; Air Line Pilots Association (ALPA) president, Joe DePete;, and Association of Flight Attendants-CWA (AFA) president, Sara Nelson, said: “We have a growing concern for the safety and security of our members, our airlines and the traveling public due to the government shutdown.”

Pointing out that at 35 days this was the longest US federal government shutdown with “no end in sight”, they added: “In our risk averse industry, we cannot even calculate the level of risk currently at play, nor predict the point at which the entire system will break. It is unprecedented.

“Due to the shutdown, air traffic controllers, transportation security officers, safety inspectors, air marshals, federal law enforcement officers, FBI agents and many other critical workers have been working without pay for over a month.

“Staffing in our air traffic control facilities is already at a 30-year low, and controllers are only able to maintain the system’s efficiency and capacity by working overtime, including 10-hour days and six-day workweeks at many of our nation’s busiest facilities.”

Apart from the potential impact at airports and airlines, there are further potential implications for The Bahamas because Miami air traffic control presently manages all mid and high level airspace above this nation. This leaves the entire aviation sector and commerce that depends on it, as well as tourism, vulnerable to any air traffic controller closure/shortage in the US.

The shutdown has left the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) unable to hire or conduct air traffic controller training, and the statement added: “Even if the FAA were hiring, it takes two to four years to become fully facility certified and achieve Certified Professional Controller (CPC) status.

“Almost 20 percent of CPCs are eligible to retire today. There are no options to keep these professionals at work without a pay cheque when they can no longer afford to support their families. When they elect to retire, the National Airspace System (NAS) will be crippled.”

The statement continued: “The situation is changing at a rapid pace. Major airports are already seeing security checkpoint closures, with many more potentially to follow. Safety inspectors and federal cyber security staff are not back on the job at pre-shutdown levels, and those not on furlough are working without pay.

“Last Saturday, TSA (Transportation Security Administration) management announced that a growing number of officers cannot come to work due to the financial toll of the shutdown. In addition, we are not confident that system-wide analyses of safety reporting data, which is used to identify and implement corrective actions in order to reduce risks and prevent accidents, is 100 percent operational due to reduced FAA resources.

“As union leaders, we find it unconscionable that aviation professionals are being asked to work without pay and in an air safety environment that is deteriorating by the day. To avoid disruption to our aviation system, we urge Congress and the White House to take all necessary steps to end this shutdown immediately.”

Bahamian travellers heading to or transiting through the US could also suffer travel delays and disruptions, along with freight traffic between the two countries, should the shutdown bite deeper.

Mr D’Aguilar yesterday confirmed that he was “absolutely” concerned about the US shutdown’s potential threat to projections that stopover arrivals to The Bahamas will be up around 16 percent during three of the first four months of 2019, “maintaining the phenomenal growth rate” experienced throughout 2018.

Besides the aviation issues, the shutdown has left 800,000 federal workers without pay. Travel and vacation will be the last things on their mind, and the loss of their spending power will hurt other businesses and workers throughout the US.

More importantly, consumer confidence will be negatively impacted, which could prompt potential travellers to postpone or cancel a Bahamian holiday. While bookings for January, February and March are likely to be set in stone and unaffected, those with travel plans further out may have second thoughts.

Mr D’Aguilar added that travellers may also be deterred by the prospect of an airport “melee” in trying to get through security, but expressed confidence that “common sense” would ultimately prevail between President Donald Trump and his congressional Democrat opponents to end the impasse and re-open the federal government.

“One would hope the damage to the US economy would ensure their aviation system doesn’t collapse,” he told Tribune Business. “I’m sure the collapse of their economy and system would be so monumental and severe that common sense would prevail and the US people would force their government to open.

“There’s nothing we can do about it. We’re a small country and pale in comparison to the economy of the US. There’s nothing we can really do except hope common sense prevails.”