The Tribune

By RICARDO WELLS

Tribune Staff Reporter

rwells@tribunemedia.net

A newly published Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) study has recommended The Bahamas will need an estimated 6,000 teachers, 3,000 doctors and 7,000 nurses by 2040.

These sectors have been highlighted as areas of concern by successive administrations due to systemic shortages.

The study, which is featured in the second issue of the IDB’s new series “The future of work in Latin America and the Caribbean,” further suggested that as a region, Latin American and Caribbean states could demand around 23 million education and health professionals.

Highlighted in a sub-section of the study, “Education and Health: The sectors of the future?” the IDB analysed demand for social sector professionals in 24 countries in the region, resulting in estimates of around 12 million teachers, eight million nurses and three million doctors needed by 2040. Of the areas highlighted, the study also noted the quality of these jobs and there direct correlation to female workforce.

“Our study shows that, even in the framework of the fourth industrial revolution, we can expect the number of teachers, doctors and nurses in Latin America and the Caribbean to continue growing at great speed,” explained Marcelo Cabrol, manager of the IDB’s Social Sector.

“Our methodology allows us to know that, for example, a third of the teachers that will be needed in 15 years, and almost two-thirds of the doctors and nurses, are people who have not yet begun their working life.

“Faced with this reality, the key is to ensure that these new professionals have the skills and training they need to be the teachers, doctors and nurses of the future,” he added.

The report’s projections are based on a series of variables specific to these sectors.

In the case of education, researchers analysed the school-age population, school enrolment rates and the number of children per teacher are considered. Conversely, for the health sector, the number of doctors is estimated with consideration given to the aging population that will exist in the coming decades, as well as the proportion of nurses for each doctor.

Additionally, the report also reviewed employment trends of teachers, doctors and nurses in region over the past four decades.

“These three occupations have been growing significantly in the region, but the most remarkable thing is that the jobs in education and health care, in comparison with other sectors, (are) of good quality,” Mr Cabrol said.

The report further noted evidence that the income of teachers, doctors and nurses in the Latin America and Caribbean region has grown significantly in recent years, while also highlighting that these professionals are more likely to receive a pension in old age than other professionals such as engineers, lawyers, journalists or accountants.

Moreover, the study also points out that women represent the majority of social sector workers, and that the gender wage gap is substantially lower in these occupations than in others.

“While, in our region, women with post-secondary education still earn on average 28 percent less than men, in education and health this difference is around 10 percent,” Mr Cabrol said.

The IDB, through this series, seeks to enrich the discussion on how the Latin America and Caribbean region can best use opportunities and minimise the risks that arise from this issue using an interactive format.

The complete series can be found through the IDB’s future of work website.