The Tribune

By RASHAD ROLLE

Tribune Staff Reporter

rrolle@tribunemedia.net

THE cost of Hurricane Dorian’s impact on the Bahamas is $3.4bn, more than a quarter of the country’s GDP, according to the Inter-American Development Bank.

The figure accounts for damage such as the effect the disaster has had on assets in every sector; losses such as the goods and services that have not been produced or provided until full recovery and reconstruction; and additional costs such as outlays required to provide goods and services as a result of the disaster.

The IDB estimates that Dorian will cost the country one percentage of its GDP, implying the economy will grow 0.9 percent post-disaster, resulting in a decrease in salaries of $51.3m and capital income of $60.9m.

The government asked the IDB to make its assessment. The IDB requested help from the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) for technical assistance with the job.

The IDB estimates Dorian caused $2.5 billion worth of damage, 91 percent of this to the private sector.

“Abaco suffered 87 percent of the damage and Grand Bahama 13 percent,” the IDB’s report said. “Losses are estimated at $717.3 million and were sustained primarily in the private sector, which accounted for 84 percent of the total. Seventy percent of the losses took place on Abaco, 15 percent on Grand Bahama, and nine percent of the other islands. Additional costs add up to $220.9 million, 46.4 percent of those costs were in the environment sector and are associated to the cleaning of the oil spill. A major part of the remainder of the additional costs is related to debris removal and demolition.”

The IDB estimates that 29,472 people were affected by the hurricane because of some sort of damage to their homes and assets.

Nowhere was Dorian’s impact greater than in the housing sector.

The IDB said more than 75 percent of Abaco homes were somehow affected, with 57 percent severely damaged.

“Approximately 9,000 homes and in excess of 11 million square feet of structures have sustained some damage on the two islands,” the report said. “Damage to the housing sector on the islands is estimated at $1.48 billion, 88.9 percent of which took place on Abaco. Losses in the housing sector are attributed to the interruption of accommodation and rental services due to severe damage or destruction of the house, making it temporarily or permanently uninhabitable. The assessment team estimated losses at $56.8 million resulting from 2,894 homes left uninhabitable after the hurricane.”

In addition, the IDB said there will be $45.9 million in additional costs associated with demolishing affected dwellings, cleaning debris, labour and equipment rental cost.

In the health sector, the IDB estimates damage in infrastructure, medical equipment, furniture, supplies and others worth $37.7 million. Health services operations disruption will cost $21.4 million.

With respect to educational facilities, widespread damage amounted to $72 million, with public sector institutions expected to incur costs of $74 million.

The IDB estimates transportation infrastructure damage at $51 million, 53 percent of which took place on Grand Bahama where 93 percent was sustained at the Grand Bahama International Airport. The IDB estimates $37 million loss associated with interruption of transportation services.

The bank also said that the total damage to the tourism infrastructure because of Dorian is $530 million.

“In this occasion, the forecasted losses are less than the damage and amount to $325 million,” the bank said. “They are related to the disruption in the flow of tourists as a result of the storm and a changed public perception due to the damaged structures. Most of the losses will be accrued in the high season of 2019 and 2020, tapering off as the recovery is expected to gain momentum.

“In the upcoming years, the country will face difficult questions of whether to relocate coastal populations and how to smartly invest in more resilient infrastructure,” the bank said. “It is, therefore, imperative for the Bahamas, as a country, to establish a comprehensive approach to meeting these challenges and to incorporate considerations for disaster risk management into all features of national development.”