The Tribune

By FARRAH JOHNSON

Tribune Staff Reporter

fjohnson@tribunemedia.net

WEATHER officials are urging the public to remain prepared during the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season as the number of predicted systems continue to increase in what experts say is as an “above-average” season.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) recently updated this year’s hurricane forecast, revealing the possibility of 19 to 25 named storms, of which seven to 11 are expected to develop into hurricanes, including three to six major ones. This is a notable increase from pre-season forecasts, which predicted 16 named storms, eight hurricanes and four major hurricanes.

Yesterday, Deputy Director of the Department of Meteorology Basil Dean told The Tribune NOAA’s hurricane prediction upgrade did not come as a surprise.

“The numbers are pretty high because we expect a very active season and perhaps a record breaking (one) if things pan out,” he said.

“We got off to a hot start which set a record in that we’ve had nine named storms up to the first of August. That’s the first time that’s ever happened, so that one is actually in the history books. The main thing is at this time of the year we generally encourage our citizenry to remain vigilant and focused on the season because we’re approaching the peak which is still in front of us.

“We’re looking at the middle of September and with that said, looking at the fact that we’ve already had nine named storms, it is reasonable to believe we can double that moving forward as we head into the peak of the season,” he added.

Mr Dean said it was not likely for the country to be “out of the woods” until the official close of the season. Still, he said there have been instances when tropical cyclones and hurricanes form outside of the expected timeframe.

He insisted “preparedness was the key” and urged the public to continue their day-to-day routines with that factor in mind.

“As we go into the peak, we want you to ensure all those pre-hurricane precautions have been taken care of,” he said.

“And when we speak about pre-hurricane precautions, we’re talking about the necessary repairs to your roof if you have issues with leaks, if you have fractured windows you want to ensure those are taken care of and repaired and if you don’t have hurricane shutters, you want to ensure you have them. If you cannot afford shutters, then plywood is just as good.”

Asked whether he believed Bahamians were taking the warnings seriously based on the preparations they made for Hurricane Isaias, he added: “I think they are. Generally speaking, just riding around the island of New Providence and seeing the long lines at the food stores and the service station, it means that people are listening to our message and that is always good.

“But it’s not just about listening,” he furthered. “You have to also apply what is in the message because a forecast is only as good as the actions that you take in order to secure your properties to save lives. So we’re asking persons once again to pay attention and listen carefully to all the information that is given. The key is preparedness, nothing beats preparedness.”

In a statement last week, NEMA director Stephen Russell also encouraged people to “do their part in getting prepared, remaining vigilant and being ready to take action when necessary.”

“The Atlantic Hurricane Season officially starts June 1 and ends November 30,” the statement read. “In pre-season predictions on April 2, 2020, meteorology experts revealed an above-average season of 16 named storms, eight hurricanes, and four major hurricanes. They also posted significantly heightened probabilities for hurricanes tracking through the Caribbean and hurricanes striking the US coastline.

“However, met experts have noted that the formation of tropical cyclones is possible at any time, as illustrated by the formations of tropical storms Arthur and Bertha on May 16 and 27, respectively, marking the sixth consecutive year with preseason systems.”

According to the release, early activity continued into June, with Tropical Storm Cristobal becoming the earliest third named storm on record when it formed on June 2. In July, tropical storms Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna and Isaias also ranked as the earliest fifth, sixth, seventh, eighth and ninth named storms, all forming during the month of July.

“As a tropical storm, Isaias entered the Southeast Bahamas on July 31, it later became a Category One hurricane and moved up the Bahama Island chain. It exited The Bahamas on August 2. Assessments are being done,” NEMA said.