The Tribune

EDITOR, The Tribune

Being a Philomath and in particular a Matholephile, I created a mathematic model for the Bahamas’s Coronavirus cases and death. This is not accurate but it gives a ball park figure. It is similar to predicting the weather; things could change but there is a high probability it will occur.

The model predicts the following: March 2020, 10(1)= 10, April 2020, 9(2)= 81, May 2020, 4(3) = 64, June 2020, 4(4)= 256, July 2020, 4(5) = =1024, August 2020 3.5(6) = 1838, September 2020 3(7) = 2 187, October 2020, 2.65(8) = 2432, November 2020, 2.4(9) = 2.210 = 2 656, December 2020, 2.1(11) = 3 503, January 2021 2(12) = 4 096, February 2021, 1.9(13) = 4 205 March 2021, 1.8(14) = 3 748. Microbial growth goes through 4 stages: lag, growth, steady and decline, The COVID-19 should start to decline unless, there is a third wave due to an unforeseen agent(s).

The Bahamas should have about 70 deaths by April 2021, using the current death rate of 1.6%. There should be between 4 000 to 4 500 cases of COVID-19 detected in the Bahamas within a year. Using the flu which infects 3% to 11% of a population annually, the Bahamas should have 11 814 to 43 319 cases of COVID-19. Since everyone is not tested, the number of cases detected will be much lower.

Lockdown and quarantine will change the timeline but the final result will be similar. This is how virus and bacteria usually behave. I am making this model public to start the discussion on long-term projections.

PS: numbers are raised to the power eg, 2 to the 12 power 1.8 to the 14 power (in brackets).

BRIAN E PLUMMER

Nassau,

August 23, 2020.