By KHRISNA RUSSELL
Tribune Chief Reporter
krussell@tribunemedia.net
WITH COVID-19 infections now in single digits, the country’s top infectious diseases expert has again urged Bahamians not to be overly confident or come to the false conclusion that the deadly disease has left the country.
Dr Nikkiah Forbes, director of the National HIV/AIDS and Infectious Disease Programme at the Ministry of Health, reminded people that the number of confirmed cases everywhere is always less than the actual number of infections, adding 40 percent of cases are in asymptomatic carriers.
As these people are still infectious, following health protocols should remain a focus of all, she said.
Recent international epidemiological models have estimated that the number of locally confirmed cases is far below the actual number.
Health officials said only two new cases of COVID-19 were confirmed in the country on Tuesday. The cases were in New Providence.
“The first thing to know is that the number of lab confirmed cases of COVID-19 everywhere is always less than the true number of infections,” Dr Forbes said yesterday, “Simply because there are asymptomatic persons. Up to 40 percent of people with COVID-19 can be asymptomatic and they would have no inclination that they would have COVID-19 because they have no symptoms. However, they’re still infectious so they would not come to the healthcare system because they have no symptoms, so they are in the community.
“There are persons who may have mild symptoms, who may not come in to get tested and so it’s a fact globally everywhere that the number of confirmed cases is lower than the number of actual cases.
“Now, as it relates to modeling, you’ll see that there are several different projections and they have different numbers for the model and there are many models that can be used to project what could be the number of cases of anything in a country.”
She continued: “We have to keep in mind that these models can vary widely and we can see that the numbers that you have there also vary and that is because some of these models are not a good fit for smaller sized populations. They are often for very large countries with millions of people and so there is a margin of error.
“So, what is the news that you can use? I always say that the news you can use is this: be assured that there are more persons than the lab confirmed cases in country and what does that mean? It means that we cannot be overly confident and come to the false conclusion that COVID-19 has gone away because we have single digits or a few cases that are reported.
“We have to remember that there are still cases that are not coming into the healthcare system and it can spread again if it is that we don’t continue to follow the precautions.”
If Bahamians return to business as usual, Dr Forbes predicted a rise in cases.
“There are still people who are asymptomatic. There are still persons who have COVID-19 and if we go back to business as usual, we’re going to see a spike and a surge in the number of cases and that’s something that we have been knowing and documenting and following global experiences and individual countries over the past year since we’ve known about COVID-19 and this is what is true and just about everywhere.
“When things go back to business as usual. When people are moving around and we’re back to our daily movements as usual - opening up borders and people going back to their usual activities and not following the public health protocols - that is what leads to waves and surges.
“In many countries when you look at the epidemic curve in 14 days, two to three weeks, you can start to see an increase in cases unless people follow the public health recommendations and strategies to mitigate the spread.”
As cases are at an all-time low in this wave of the pandemic, officials here are encouraged by a COVID-19 vaccination coming on stream.
Yesterday, Britain became the first country in the world to authorise a rigorously tested COVID-19 vaccine and could be dispensing shots within days — an historic step toward eventually ending the outbreak that has killed more than 1.4 million people around the globe.
In The Bahamas, Dr Forbes said a vaccine could be in the country by as early as the spring.
Comments
John 4 years ago
The Bahamas has flattened its Corona curve for the second time and the worldwide curve for new infections and deaths had started a downward spiral for the first time since July. In fact there are several countries, like The USA, Canada and the UK that cannot seem to be able to get their Corona cases under control. By it may happen fir them during late December and early January. So maybe that is why the are rushing to distribute a less than adequately tested vaccine. If this covid-19 virus continues to decline and disappears after a few months, they the vaccines will become obsolete and eventually useless. And billions willl be lost in research and development and potential profits. Some predict the virus will become seasonal before it disappears and others feel it will be gone totally by June 2021. And strangely enough that that the vaccines ( at least one) has to be stored at below zero temperatures. It is highly speculated that the so called covid_19 virus was excavated from a solidly frozen gravesite in Alaska. In fact it is now being reported that previous samples of this virus was dug up elsewhere, before the excavation in Alaska. But those samples were found to be ad dead as the corpse they were taken from. But the samples taken from a well preserved lung in the frozen ground of Alaska were well preserved and shall we say. ‘Alive!’
DDK 4 years ago
Hmm. Csn you please direct us to the source of this Alaskan data, John?
tribanon 4 years ago
And we all know that data baked in Alaska is the most tasty kind of dessert data. lol
John 4 years ago
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John 4 years ago
Autopsies of patients in Germany and in the UK and just recently in the US revealed that these patients who died months before the corona virus appeared in China, had the virus in their lungs. So this debunks the idea that the Covid-19 virus originated in China. It also confirms that the number of people dying from the Covid-19 virus is understated. And even here in this country, there have been reports of persons contracting this ‘strange flu’ that , made them unable to breathe and feel like they was drowning. and ‘so painful they felt like someone had beaten them all over the body.’ since September of 2019. One woman who recovered said, Child you don’t wann get dat (flu). Even though you don’t really want to die, you feel so bad and painful, you start praying for God to take your life. Thank God I survived, but I wouldn’t wish that experience (flu) on my worst enemy.’ So when did the Covid-19 virus actually appear on the planet? What is the real source of the virus? And what is the real death rate? A number of countries, including The Bahamas, the United States Germany and Italy are reporting that even after corona deaths are discounted, the death rates in those countries are up by 30 percent. What is the correlation between these increases in deaths and the Covid-19 virus? So is this at least the third wave or maybe even the fourth wave rather than the second wave? During the third wave of the Spanish flu, victims were dying within 12 hours of contracting the virus. Some left home for work healthy, but contracted the virus and never returned.’ ‘Then in the early spring of the following year (next year, 2021), the virus disappeared as quickly as it had appeared’. Is this the light at the end of the tunnel?
John 4 years ago
Take note that the number of daily cases worldwide has peaked (November 26th) before and vaccine had been administered. And it is basically the YS that have kept the numbers high. Rather than enforcing social distancing laws, the wearing of masks, avoidance of large gatherings and travel restrictions, they put more hopes in a vaccine. And even after the vaccine is administered, the outcome is not certain. And not everyone will be protected. The vaccine may be just a money making scheme
B_I_D___ 4 years ago
Numbers are only low due to a lack of testing being done...don't be fooled!!
tribanon 4 years ago
@John, please get back on your meds. My body can only take so much laughter and my ribs are really hurting now. lol
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