The Tribune

By LEANDRA ROLLE

Tribune Staff Reporter

lrolle@tribunemedia.net

COVID-19 cases have surged to 153, with 15 additional cases reported yesterday alone, the country’s largest single day tally since the pandemic began.

Nine new cases were reported on Saturday while five additional cases were reported on Friday. Director of the National HIV/AIDS and Infectious Disease Programme Dr Nikkiah Forbes said yesterday while “it’s hard to know at the outset” if the cases in New Providence are linked to community spread, “it’s not the predominant mode of thread at the time.”

As it relates to Grand Bahama, Dr Forbes said she does not believe that the spike of cases on the island are largely a result of community spread as many were linked to travel, suggesting cluster transmission.

Speaking to The Tribune yesterday, she said: “So, the situation is different in Grand Bahama compared to New Providence. Cases in Grand Bahama are travellers or travel related, they’re contacts of those people who travel.

“For the most part (they’re related), but there are a few cases where they have not traveled and they have no known contacts that travelled if you get me but we wouldn’t know if they came into contact with those persons in their day to day activities.

“So, is it mainly community spread in Grand Bahama? No, I don’t think so, but you can’t rule out low level community spread.”

Her comments to this newspaper came hours before Prime Minister Dr Hubert Minnis announced 15 additional cases in the country, four of which are in New Providence and 11 on Grand Bahama.

Dr Forbes told The Tribune while some cases in New Providence also had recent travel histories or were contacts of people who travelled outside the country, there are others that did not.

This, she said, has caused officials to question the likelihood of low community spread happening on the island. However, she said more information is needed in order for health officials to make an official determination on the matter.

“Similarly, in New Providence, some of the persons over the last few days had travel, places where we know coronavirus is surging. Some of those cases also were contacts of those persons that had travelled,” she said.

“But as you said, there was some one or two (cases)… that we cannot tie to travel or have a contact that travel so again you have to wonder is it that they came in contact with someone who travelled or is there low level community spread?It’s hard to know at the outset.

“So, is it community spread? It’s not the predominant mode of thread at the time. Perhaps that’s the best way of explaining it but we can’t rule it out and more information is needed in those cases where we’re continuing to get the epidemiological and surveillance information that we know had no history of travel or travel related contact.”

However, Dr Forbes said if more cases were to present with no history of travel or travel-related contacts in the next few weeks, health officials will be more liable to suspect either low-level community spread or cluster transmission.

“In 14 days, if more persons are presenting that don’t have what we call an epidemiological link — they have not travelled or they have no contacts that have travelled — then you will have to put higher up on your suspicions that there’s either cluster transmission going on or there could be low level community spread,” she told The Tribune.

“It gets clearer when you watch the epidemiological curve on these things and follow cases as they commence, and I can fully tell you that right now but it could be clusters.”

Asked if officials expect to see more cases in the coming days, the director said it was likely that more cases will increase in Grand Bahama.

“It’s probable for Grand Bahama and if you look at the epidemiological information right there and the epidemiological curve for Grand Bahama in that there are a spike of cases there, it’s probable we’re going to continue to see cases in Grand Bahama for the next few days or the information period.”

As it relates to New Providence, she said: “Maybe because at the time, there have been a few cases in New Providence over the last few days so if the contact tracing is effectively done and persons are put in isolation, if it’s a cluster, you could put in place measures to reduce spread.

“But, if there’s low level transmission happening, then presumably other persons are being exposed especially if persons are gathering in crowds so we do have to closely monitor and see what’s happening in New Providence for the next few days and without a doubt, Grand Bahama.”

There are 100 confirmed cases in New Providence, 39 in Grand Bahama, 13 in Bimini and one in Cat Cay. Eleven people have died from the virus while 91 people have recovered.