The Tribune

By NEIL HARTNELL

Tribune Business Editor

nhartnell@tribunemedia.net

A Bahamian risk management specialist yesterday warned that this nation is “vulnerable on a few fronts” to the coronavirus outbreak, adding: “This is a storm of its own before hurricane season.”

Emmanuel Komolafe told Tribune Business that the continued spread of the COVID-19 virus, which has now reached Florida and the Dominican Republic, called for The Bahamas to expand its national risk management framework beyond hurricanes to account for events such as pandemics and cyber attacks.

He added that the coronavirus had also highlighted the need to extend risk planning past the national level to individuals and businesses, who will be in “unfamiliar territory” given the potential impact on workplace health and corporate travel.

Warning that The Bahamas “doesn’t have the luxury of time” given the increasing number of infections and countries affected, Mr Komolafe argued that this nation itself needs a “more comprehensive and holistic approach” that reaches beyond health issues given the COVID-19 virus’s potential to impact almost every part of this nation’s economy and society.

Noting that Dr Duane Sands, minister of health, had said it is a question of “when”, not “if”, the coronavirus reaches this nation, he added that The Bahamas’ reliance on tourism, status as a small, open economy, and near total-reliance on imports for everything it consumes were all critical areas of vulnerability.

“This may be a storm of its own before hurricane season,” Mr Komolafe told Tribune Business. “This is not something we’ve dealt with before. It’s a different kind of risk. It’s not just a test for the country’s risk management framework, but entities and individuals.

“We don’t have the luxury of time. We’re quite vulnerable on a few fronts. We’re a country that depends on tourism and last year welcomed 7.2m visitors, the majority from the US. This is definitely something worth watching and paying serious attention to. I see where a number of companies associated with travel and tourism have been taking a hit from cancellations. In that regard it could have a significant impact.

“Reluctance or fear of travel could impact arrivals and inflows, local businesses, workers and government revenue. We are also a nation that imports almost all that we consume. Hence a disruption in international trade and global supply chain will eventually impact us.”

Mr Komolafe said any fall-out for the Bahamian economy depended on how long the COVID-19 virus outbreak lasts, the extent of its spread, and whether any cases emerge in The Bahamas. “If it’s extended it definitely will be a concern, not just for food,” he added.”It goes beyond food. We’re a country that imports most of what we consume. It’s far ranging.

“The most concerning part is how long this goes on for. If it’s extensive there will be more impact on other sectors and the economy. It could still potentially drive the US into recession.” The US Federal Reserve cut interest rates yesterday after the coronavirus wiped billions of dollars in value off stock markets around the globe, but the move appeared to have little to no initial impact on stock prices.

Mr Komolafe, meanwhile, agreed it was “a valid point” as to whether the Bahamian public healthcare system, “already under pressure on a daily basis”, would be able to cope with a major outbreak of the COVID-19 virus in this nation.

“It’s a wake-up call and eye opener,” he added, “and we have to expand our thinking beyond hurricanes and natural disasters, and do a proper risk analysis of cyber attacks, identifying all these things.

“COVID-19 will test the business continuity plans and, by extension, the risk management frameworks of entities within the public and private sectors. The time to activate contingency plans and make some decisions to mitigate this risk is now. That being said, organisations will have to be agile, flexible and ready to adjust their operations as this situation evolves.

“Measures aimed at enhancing workplace health and safety (for example, dispensable hand sanitizers) as well as protocols around business travels, meetings, sick leave and remote working arrangements will need to be established and implemented as necessary to minimise the impact of COVID-19 and any potential disruptions,” Mr Komolafe continued.

“Training and awareness is also an important part of any plan. The reality is that for many entities, this is unfamiliar territory. Hence we must be willing to learn from others and stay informed on new developments as the number of impacted countries has been growing.

“Then there is the potential impact on operations, budgets (revenue and expenditure) and strategy which must all be considered. In essence, Boards and executive management must ensure that their entities are prepared and positioned to address any potential fallout and impact from COVID-19.”

Urging all Bahamian companies to develop a business continuity plan if they have not done so already, Mr Komolafe said supply chain disruption for retail and services operations could be “massive” depending on how long COVID-19 remains a threat.

“On the public health front, it is apparent that we welcome millions of tourists from around the world annually,” he added. “This naturally makes us vulnerable and exposes the Bahamian public in the event that there is a global pandemic or outbreak of a disease. The potential strain on an already stretched healthcare system and impact on productivity, as well as government expenditure, cannot be overstated.

“While the 2020 hurricane season approaches, we face a more imminent threat with the COVID-19, and the consequences of inadequate preparation or a deficient plan could be dire. Perhaps there is a comprehensive plan and, if that is in fact the case, that is commendable. However, if there isn’t one or there are gaps in the existing one, we need to address this matter urgently.”