The Tribune

So much has been broadcast and written about the coronavirus outbreak that there is a risk of information overload about what has become a global crisis, and any reiteration of existing facts would be superfluous. But I hope it might be interesting briefly to take stock of fresh developments, especially at a time when China – where it all started in Wuhan – has pursued draconian measures of containment which have resulted in the lowest level of new infections there since the beginning of the crisis. Furthermore, according to a leading microbiologist in Britain, while a vaccine could still be as much as a year away, COVID-19 could peak at about the time of Easter next month, with some predicting it might have run its course by May.

That is not to deny the epidemic affecting over 80 countries is extremely serious and has become worse by the day so that it is now being described as an unprecedented international health crisis. The situation is clearly not being overhyped even though there is some debate about whether it can be termed a pandemic which is defined as the worldwide spread of a new disease. The latest figures are disturbing: more than 100,000 infected globally and more than 3,500 deaths, with Italy, Iran and South Korea the most seriously affected after China.

The World Health Organisation has urged countries ‘to pull out all the stops’ in containing the deadly virus. But it has expressed concern that some are still underestimating the threat and that political commitment and action have in some cases not matched the danger of the situation. So the WHO is looking for more coordinated and concerted international action.

Italy, with more than 7,000 cases and now 463 deaths, had to place first the northern part of the nation and then everywhere else on virtual lockdown. Declaring a national emergency, the Prime Minister has called it Italy’s darkest hour. The country’s drastic containment measures have included the closing down of public gatherings, schools and major sporting events.

In Britain, where the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 stands at 319 cases including five deaths, nearly 20,000 people have been tested. It appears to me from UK press reports that the official response has been sensible and proportionate. The government is obviously listening to the scientific experts and, with little internal political wrangling, has devised a four-stage approach of containing the spread of the virus, delaying it in future by so-called ‘social distancing’ including restricting large gatherings, mitigation and research.

Thus, the first step is to prevent patients who have contracted the virus from infecting other people. Reportedly, there is no cure for COVID-19, but, according to the medical experts, the majority of those infected should recover.

UK government guidelines say that, while younger people are at relatively low risk, those over 50 with a pre-existing medical condition are more vulnerable. But there is no cause for panic and the symptoms of cough, sore throat, fever and aches are much like the normal seasonal ‘flu.

Precautions like no handshakes – only elbow bumps or foot taps – and frequent washing of hands are obviously important. In addition, those at risk or already showing symptoms should self-quarantine by staying at home and avoiding contact with others for 14 days. But, since older people are more likely to be affected, others are being urged to check on their relations who might need help with food supplies – hence the new cry of ‘Go and see Granny now’.

To the layman, all this makes good sense and, according to reports, the National Health Service, though under fresh pressure to care for those infected, is coping well. The UK government is pumping more money into developing a vaccine and the purchase of more testing kits; and it seems to have the overall threat under reasonable control even though there remains a risk that the disease could take a hold in Britain.

As everybody is aware, in an interconnected world and global economy, fear spreads all too easily and there has been a severe economic fallout. Yesterday, global markets plunged – with UK shares suffering the largest drop since the 2008 crash – and the oil price fell by the biggest margin since the 1991 Gulf War.

But the economic impact seems to be less directly tied to the numbers of people infected by the virus, or who have succumbed to it, and more to how governments react to it. Official restrictions vary from country to country and controls on the movement of people have already had serious widespread effects on the travel and leisure business including airlines, restaurants, cinemas, bars and clubs and on major sporting events.

With the world in a continuing grip of hysteria, who knows what the long-term economic effects of this crisis might be? Globalisation has resulted in unparalleled prosperity, freedom and development over the past decades while also reducing poverty and improving healthcare, education and economic opportunity. So the sooner a return to some sort of normality is achieved the better for all. Let us hope that the prediction of a peak by Easter followed by a rapid decline thereafter turns out to be accurate.

Meanwhile, one can only applaud our own government here at home for the sound measures it has taken to protect the nation against COVID-19, in particular restricting the entry of individuals who have been to China recently – and for recognising the threat to the Bahamian economy which is so heavily dependent on travel and investment.

International Criminal Court becoming too political for its own good

A significant development on the world stage last week that seems to have largely escaped media attention was the ruling by the International Criminal Court in The Hague that its chief prosecutor could open an investigation into allegations of war crimes in Afghanistan, including any by US forces.

Such an investigation could lead potentially to prosecution of members of the American armed services. So, predictably, the US government has reacted vigorously, with Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, calling the decision a dangerous sham and a politically motivated stunt -- the timing of which was designed to undermine US efforts to foster peace in the war-torn nation – by ‘an unaccountable political institution masquerading as a legal body’.

Unsurprisingly, human rights organisations have welcomed the ICC’s move, not least because it has reversed an earlier ruling that such an investigation could not be justified because the Court had no jurisdiction in the matter. Since the US is not a signatory of the ICC, it does not acknowledge the Court’s authority over US citizens – and, as a sovereign nation, it has its own judicial proceedings for such investigations.

It is clear that the ICC has been effective in prosecuting wrong-doers like Bosnian Serb military commander Radko Mladic, who was found guilty of genocide, war crimes and crimes against humanity and sentenced to life imprisonment, together with tyrants like former Liberian president Charles Taylor and Khmer Rouge leaders who were brought to book. But there are inevitably limits to the jurisdiction of the ICC as a supra-national entity. The fact is that so-called international mechanisms are ultimately a function of ‘great power’ consensus at the UN. In this latest case, it seems that the ICC has indeed become politicised and this could have a damaging effect on its other work. But it is anyway largely academic because the US will surely refuse to co-operate – and in the end nothing much will happen.

The sadness of losing a dear friend

I should like to take the opportunity of this column to offer a short tribute to Graham Garner. The sudden passing of such a dear and valued friend has surely left all who knew and loved him in a state of shock.

For those left behind to grieve, the sadness of losing him is overwhelming. Even though, as was widely known, he had not been in the best of health during the last few years, it has been extremely distressing to lose him so unexpectedly and abruptly. How I shall miss those interesting talks, jokes, good fellowship and companionship – and how one could learn from that acute and sophisticated mind of his when he was holding forth about one subject or another and living up to his reputation as a walking encyclopaedia.

Having been in The Bahamas since the 1960s, Graham was, of course, widely known for his professional skills and acumen – together with a formidable work ethic and unshakeable integrity – as an English Chartered Accountant and Partner in Coopers and Lybrand. He was a family man and a person of many and varied accomplishments and achievements during a long, fruitful and happy life; and he was also always involved locally – among other activities, as an Elder of The Kirk, and a noted thespian with the Dundas Theatre and its treasurer for many years.

From my own experience of knowing him for more than 20 years, I can attest to his openness to others, his approachability, quick wit, humour and sense of fun – qualities that brought him many friends and admirers over the years. We played squash and tennis together including, for many years, in John Morley’s famous early morning group. He also had a fine singing voice – and, for example, at the Morley tennis group’s annual Christmas breakfast everybody used to enjoy his solo rendition of ‘Silent Night’ in impeccable German.

To do justice to Graham, I should like to write more about him and his life; but, alas, there are space constraints. With so many enjoyable memories of time in his company, it is hard to believe he has gone. Verona joins me in offering his dear wife, Aidie, and their family our deepest condolences. I shall miss him more than I can say.