The Tribune

National Hurricane Center

Miami, FL 10PM EST

Fri Nov 6 2020

SYNOPSIS...

Tropical Depression Eta near 17.3N 86.5W 1002 mb at 4 PM EST moving NE at 6 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40 kt. Eta is moving toward North-Eastward at a faster forward speed of around 10 kt.  An additional increase in forward speed should occur overnight. The center of Eta will move across the North-Western Caribbean Sea tonight and Friday, approach the Cayman Islands Saturday, and be near central or western Cuba Saturday night and Sunday.

FURTHER STRENGTHENING

Eta is expected to strengthen into a Tropical storm over the next 24 to 48 hours while it moves over warm waters and within an area of strong upper-level divergence to the southeast of a mid- to upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico. As this occurs, Eta's wind field is expected to increase in size.

SHIFT IN FORECAST TRACK

The latest runs of the dynamical models have trended toward a more northward track on Sunday and Monday with some of them showing a track near or over the southern portion of the Florida peninsula in 48 to 60 hours. The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted slightly northward during that time and lies between the TVCA multi-model consensus and the HFIP corrected consensus aid. Since Eta's wind field is forecast to expand when it moves north of Cuba, tropical-storm-force winds are expected to cover a large area to the north and northeast regardless of the exact track of the center.

The new forecast track requires a Tropical Storm Watch for the Central & North Western Bahamas, South Florida, and the Florida Keys.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rains and tropical storm force winds will move into the Cayman Islands and Cuba overnight, before impacting The Bahamas.

Significant rainfall accumulations in Cayman Islands, The Bahamas and South Florida - with flash flooding and the possibility of rivers overflowing in Jamaica

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected this weekend in portions of the Cayman Islands and Cuba. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Southern/Central Bahamas
2. There is an increasing risk of impacts from wind and flash and urban flooding due to heavy rainfall in portions of southern Florida, the Florida Keys, and portions of the Bahamas this weekend and early next week. Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for portions of these areas and additional watches may be required overnight or on Saturday morning