The Tribune

The late Monsignor Preston Moss sometimes admonished: “Just because you live in a small country, doesn’t mean that you have to have a small or narrow mind. Keep your world big.”

His admonitions are even more relevant and urgent as the world and The Bahamas are confronted by the jumble of uncertainties, challenges and opportunities of a post-COVID-19 world. Many Bahamians are thinking small and in narrow ways during the pandemic.

Some journalists remain saddled by gotcha thinking and fruitless commentary while some civil servants remain bogged down in early 20th century bureaucratic sinecures and mindsets, with both groups incapable of the more fruitful and hard work of thinking and writing beyond their intellectual culs-de-sac.

Others are in chronic negativity loops more concerned about the silly and ultimately non-consequential WhatsApp or Facebook screeds or arguments of the day than the extraordinary social and economic challenges of the moment and of the years ahead.

Thankfully, there are a number of Bahamians, including some on the Government’s Economic Recovery Committee, who are thinking innovatively and boldly, reportedly offering specific and workable plans and ideas for economic and structural reform and diversification in a number of sectors.

While there are emerging trends presently and on the horizon, few really know what the contours of the new post-COVID-19 world will look or feel like. The year 2020, with its ironic reference to perfect vision, is a definitive marker even as we are seeing through various lenses slightly, darkly and often imperceptibly.

Easy assumptions on economic, political and social affairs based on the past will be anaemic and are likely to prove dangerous. But there are whispers, clues and emerging images on the horizon.

COVID-19 is violently shaking the break with the 20th Century, and the 21st Century is now more determinedly in the saddle, forcing by example automation and digitisation.

This includes recalcitrant holdouts like various government services in The Bahamas. Places like the Ministry of Social Services are being forced into the new digital era. Why are certain NIB services often a nightmare to navigate?

Conservative

We live in an often conservative culture in the areas of public policy and business, in which progress is stymied by some political leaders, mandarins and business elites afraid of changes they do not appreciate nor understand.

Why has it taken so long for certain large food store chains and retail hardware stores - owned by an older generation of wealthy Bahamians - to fathom the need for and the opportunities offered by easily navigable online platforms, payment systems and delivery services?

Over the next decade or so, there will likely be fewer cashiers and checkout personnel at retail stores. Customers will do self-check-out, mostly using smart cards. Such basic business transactions are commonplace overseas and have been in place in some jurisdictions for nearly 20 years.

We might recall how long it took for Bahamas-based banks to adopt ATMs, with the Bank of The Bahamas lagging behind as usual. Those businesses that successfully incorporate delivery services may survive and flourish. Those that do not may perish.

Many warned that colleges and universities were playing a dangerous roulette with the opening of campuses and in-person learning. Within weeks, COVID-19 cases spiked on many campuses, with some being forced to close as students were also potentially acting as spreaders of COVID-19 in university towns and cities.

Because of the economic model of higher education, including outsized tuitions, many institutions reopened because they desperately needed massive cash inflows. How will COVID-19 change their economic and education models?

Because of the virus, we are beginning to see the crystallisation of 21st century technologies, such as artificial intelligence, nanotechnology, electric and self-driving vehicles, robotics and biotechnology.

Some countries are shifting quickly to the use of robots to diminish the spread of viruses, with robots delivering supplies in hospitals and even more robots coming online in manufacturing.

COVID-19 will likely have a death toll of millions when the true numbers are known. Some businesses, industries and ways of doing things will also pass away.

The world of work, including working from home and remote locations, has changed so dramatically within months that some city centres are deeply worried about what the loss of potentially tens of thousands of workers from some town centers will mean for retail shops, restaurants and other services. How will mass transit change?

Dramatic

There has been a dramatic uptick in the demand for housing in the suburbs near major cities. The oil giant British Petroleum (BP) employs 6,500 workers in its St James Square office place in London.

Because of staff reductions and more flexible work plans for employees, including working from home, BP has agreed to sell this major office site. It will rent the building back from the new owner for two years before leaving permanently.

Last month, Singapore Trade and Industry Minister Chan Chun Sing stated that the country had recently experienced its “worst quarterly performance on record”. This was after the Singapore economy contracted by 13.2 percent on a year-on-year basis during the April to June quarter.

Following this unprecedented and sharp downturn, Mr Chang emphatically noted: “We are not returning to a pre-COVID-19 world. … We must chart a new direction now. …

“To put things in context, this is our worst quarterly performance on record. The forecast for 2020 essentially means the growth generated over the past two to three years will be negated.

“The numbers reflect the impact of COVID-19, as well as deeper forces reshaping the global economy and our position in the global value chains.” Mr Chang emphasised: “We can expect recurring waves of infection and disruption.

“New investments will come our way … some existing ones may also diversify away from Singapore. ... It is a fluid landscape and we must do everything we can to defend our capabilities and capacities.”

The Minister indicated the nature of jobs is changing: “With remote work, more global job opportunities for our workers will come. But it also means that other workers, in other countries, can do our jobs from their homes.”

He noted economic changes “will cause more societal frictions and tensions... We will need to better take care of those affected by job and business losses.

“We have and will continue to do these in a sustainable way that is not divisive, affirm the dignity of work and strengthen our social fabric. These tensions, unless well managed, can divide our society.”

His comments are a warning to countries everywhere, including The Bahamas.

Though much of our economy is slowly reopening, there will be no significant recovery until tourism numbers return to a decent level. No one can predict when this will occur, including those who take self-serving political potshots from the sidelines.

Though he too is unsure of specific timelines for the return of tourism, the lifeblood of our economy, a veteran tourism expert predicts an explosion in demand for smaller properties and Airbnb-type rentals. He believes many visitors will want to stay in smaller accommodations absent large crowds.

Foresight

Early in the pandemic, Prime Minister Dr Hubert Minnis presciently put in place an Economic Recovery Committee “to propose bold and specific plans” for the immediate to long-term economic recovery of the country.

Those who proposed or shortsightedly argued that he mostly utilise the old National Development Plan did not understand the moment and appear still not to understand the enormity of the challenges ahead.

While that Plan may have some elements that can be used today, the pandemic demands new and agile thinking for a novel and unprecedented time.

If we are to succeed as a country in this new period, there is the need for massive structural reform on the order of what the first FNM governments achieved after years of stagnation, paralysis and failed leadership by a PLP more engrossed in corrupt practices than in good governance.

In a new time, when the contours of change are unclear, it is often best to pose questions about what might be on the horizon. By example, what might be some of the more progressive revenue and taxation measures needed for the country in order to secure more common goods and services for more Bahamians?

In addition to the current gaming houses, is it time for a national lottery in which more of the proceeds benefit Bahamians, especially poorer Bahamians? The current system is an endless windfall that transfers money from the poor to the very wealthy.

Gaming’s legalisation under a former PLP Government was one of the greatest betrayals of the poor in Bahamian history, serving the rapacious greed of some cosseted interests.

When will The Bahamas begin to put in place the legislation and other measures that will promote an inclusive cannabis industry as well as other new industries?

No matter our state of readiness, a new world is emerging requiring bold leadership and a willingness to embark on wide scale and imaginative structural change beyond the narrow confines of a past that COVID-19 is destroying, often with a rapidity and a forcefulness few could have fathomed at the beginning of 2020.