The Tribune

• Minister hails July arrivals at 86% pre-COVID

• Says key industry ‘in best position it could be’

• Has ‘no doubt’ 1m stopover target will be met

By NEIL HARTNELL

Tribune Business Editor

nhartnell@tribunemedia.net

Tourism is “in the best possible position it could be” given COVID-19 uncertainties with July’s stopover visitors just 14 percent down on pre-pandemic comparisons, a Cabinet minister revealed yesterday.

Dionisio D’Aguilar, minister of tourism and aviation, told Tribune Business that the industry had continued to deliver “a very impressive” rebound by attracting some 151,000 land-based visitors for July based on health travel visa data.

While this represented just a 6,000 month-over-month increase compared to June’s 145,000 stopovers, Mr D’Aguilar added that the July figures were just 25,000 or 14 percent below their last pre-COVID comparison of 176,000 air arrivals during the same month in 2019.

With the gap between pre and post-COVID arrivals decreasing progressively every month, having been 30 percent in June, the minister said he had “no doubt” that The Bahamas will achieve his target of 1m stopover visitors for the 2021 calendar year.

With total arrivals through July standing at around 550,000, Mr D’Aguilar said The Bahamas was more than half-way towards this goal and needed to attract only another 450,000 prior to year-end - something he was confident will be achieved due to predictions of “robust” Thanksgiving and Christmas holiday seasons.

With August numbers still to come in, and The Bahamas having now entered the September to October period that is traditionally the slowest part of the tourism season, the minister acknowledged that the multiple “twists and turns” produced by the COVID-19 virus made it impossible to predict when the industry and wider Bahamian economy will return to full pre-pandemic performance.

But, with the September 16 general election to be held in just two weeks’ time, Mr D’Aguilar argued that The Bahamas’ major economic driver was in the best possible shape for the next administration to take over given the challenges presented by COVID-19.

Comparing July’s numbers to those of two years ago, he told Tribune Business: “That’s very impressive, 86 percent of where we once were. We have received over half-a-million visitors, 550,000, for the first seven months of the year. Eighty-six percent of where we were in 2019, that’s rebounding quite nicely.

“It’s very encouraging. We have a great product, we have a great location and a great entry system that works because people are using it and coming here. If you think of The Bahamas as a plane, we’ve found first class is filling up before economy class. Our high-end product has bounced back quite resoundingly.”

The data disclosed by Mr D’Aguilar indicates that the gap between current and 2019 performance is narrowing progressively with every month. The 14 percent difference with July 2019 compares to the 30 percent gap for June and the 37 percent differential for May.

However, data produced by Tourism Analytics.com, using Ministry of Tourism data, suggests this nation may have a slightly wider gap to close. It pegs July 2019’s stopover arrivals at 198,394, a higher number than that given by Mr D’Aguilar, which translates into 2021 figures that are 76 percent of that pre-pandemic number rather than 86 percent.

While declining to address the continuing COVID-19 case surge’s potential impact on tourism’s recovery, Mr D’Aguilar said he had “no doubt” that his 1m annual stopover visitor projection for 2021 will be achieved.

“We’ve got roughly 450,000 to go through August, September, October, November and December,” he added. “We’re on track. That’s five months, so I’m very confident we’ll get there. Tourism’s rebound is crucial and essential, and is probably why the Ministry of Finance reported they were running ahead of Budget on revenues. We’re about to go into our slow period, but are projecting a very robust Thanksgiving and Christmas.”

Mr D’Aguilar said it was impossible to forecast when Bahamian tourism will return to pre-COVID business levels, adding: “COVID-19 has so many twists and turns, we don’t know where it will take us, so that makes it very hard to predict. In May, who thought we would be where we are now? People adjust their travel plans based on what’s happening in the world with COVID, so it’s very hard to make a prediction.

“We’d love it to be better, but are very happy with performing at 86 percent of where we were given all the headwinds we are facing.” Asked what condition the new administration will find tourism in, he said: “I think tourism will be in the best possible position it could be given the circumstances on the ground, given the fact we’re trying to operate in a COVID-19 environment.

“It’s been well-managed and has rebounded as good as one could have expected given that we’re dealing with COVID-19. It’s grown percentage-wise, and if it’s back up to 86 percent that’s very impressive. The hotels did very well over the summer.”

Mr D’Aguilar again defended the health travel visa against Progressive Liberal Party (PLP) pledged to abolish it should they be elected to office, asserting that there “a million reasons why they should not get rid of it”.

Besides helping to verify that valid COVID test results were obtained from an accredited laboratory within the right timeframe, he added that it also provided an efficient mechanism to change pandemic-related health entry protocols should the need arise.

“If you don’t have the health visa, you have to send out notices to the airlines and they have to inform all their employees,” Mr D’Aguilar said of changed entry protocols. “If you have the health visa, you can change it based on the requirements on the ground. It’s a very simple and efficient way to do it. It makes it very easy.”

The minister added that The Bahamas was also perfectly poised to benefit from the cruise industry’s restart, as the country’s multiple island destinations and proximity to Florida’s ports meant it was ideal for passengers who wanted to voyage close to home on trips lasting less than seven days.