The Tribune

• Ex-DNA leader warns of ‘very tough’ choices

• Predicts new/increased taxes almost inevitable

• ‘Everything short of lockdown’ needed on COVID

By NEIL HARTNELL

Tribune Business Editor

nhartnell@tribunemedia.net

The DNA’s ex-leader yesterday said he “can almost guarantee” that the general election winner will be “very unpopular” within six-12 months because of the tough fiscal and COVID decisions they must take.

Branville McCartney told Tribune Business that the administration elected on September 16 will be immediately confronted with the economic and health-related realities of governance, including the almost inevitable need to impose new and/or increased taxes to pay for the $10.356bn national debt blow-out caused by the pandemic and Hurricane Dorian.

Agreeing that none of the political parties has sought to prepare the Bahamian people for the harsh austerity measures they will likely face over the next decade, he said: “We are in election mode. Everybody is saying that it’s a new day or it’s about your future and otherwise, but the reality is it’s going to be tough. It’s going to be very tough.

“I can almost guarantee you that whoever wins the election, within the next six months to a year they will be very unpopular because they will have to make some very unpopular decisions. If they are a party for the benefit of the country, the decisions they make will be very hard, very unpopular and very disconcerting in terms of our way of life.

“I can almost tell you some type of tax increase, directly or indirectly, is going to come. We have to pay on the debt we have, which came about because of COVID-19 and Dorian. This [Minnis] administration had to fund all kinds of requirements for people to eat and stay in their homes because they could not pay their rent or mortgage. They had to do what they had to do,” Mr McCartney added.

“It’s going to take a lot of ingenuity and some bold decisions, but we will get over this. Some pain will be required, no doubt about that, but that is nothing new under the sun. We have to knuckle down. As long as we do it for the benefit of the country, we’ll be OK, but it will take some time and labour to make it happen.”

The two major political parties, in their bid to secure votes, have not surprisingly shied away from the likelihood of new and/or increased taxes. The Prime Minister has denied his party has any such plans if re-elected, while the Progressive Liberal Party (PLP) has continued to promise that it will slash the VAT rate from 12 percent to 10 percent - at least for a year - in the hope this stimulates the economy via consumer spending.

Both have also promised to focus on growth as the primary route through which to escape, and tackle, the post-COVID debt and economic crises. However, while the PLP “blueprint” and FNM manifesto make multiple pledges, neither appears to contain the “transformational game changer” that Philip Davis, the Opposition leader, said The Bahamas requires.

Such a development will likely take some time to emerge or occur, meaning that The Bahamas’ strategy for rebuilding post-pandemic will likely have to be based on growth combined with targeted tax raises and compliance plus focused spending cuts.

Mr McCartney, who said he is not involved in campaigning for any party and individual, also argued to Tribune Business that “no matter who comes into power” additional restrictions short of a full-scale lockdown were required immediately to bring the ongoing COVID-19 surge under control.

“That is the first thing whoever comes into office must deal with,” he added. “If we don’t get that under control, my fear is no matter which party comes in - and this is just my opinion, not a medical opinion - some more restrictions have to be put in place.

“A lockdown is one of the last things you want to do to get this virus under control. We need to try and maintain this economy. It’s a balancing act.” Mr McCartney, while calling for more stringent enforcement of the COVID-19 health measures and protocols, also reiterated his previous call to make COVID vaccinations mandatory as a means to overcome the hesitancy he regularly sees through his various business interests.

“We need to do everything short of a lockdown,” Mr McCartney said, “but if people are reluctant to follow certain mandates, COVID vaccinations and the protocols requiring mask wearing and social distancing, and no large gatherings, if they don’t comply with that then we will have to look at lockdowns and we don’t want to do that. It affects our way of life, our economy, our incomes, and persons being able to go to work.

“No matter which government comes to power in the next ten days, they’re going to have to take some stringent measures to put COVID under control. As a businessman that’s not something that I want, but that has to be their first priority. I’d hate to see us be prohibited from travelling to other countries because of our per capita rate of infection.”

Revealing that he himself takes medicine for high blood pressure, the former DNA leader said that while there were side effects to this and other treatments they all produced an overall benefit. Hr argued that the same applied to the COVID-19 vaccines, as they largely served to curb the virus’ worst effects and prevent hospitalisation, thus saving lives.

“Where we are now is bad,” Mr McCartney said. “It’s worse than a year ago when we were locked down. The only way we can get this under control is if we accept this vaccine is for our benefit and not our detriment. It’s not for some type of ulterior motive or to control people.”

As for the upcoming election, he urged Bahamian voters to assess which party is best poised to implement and execute the manifesto pledges it has given. “Looking at all the manifestos and documents they have provided, they all sound good but the proof of the pudding is in the eating,” Mr McCartney said.

“It’s when you become the Government, and how you deal with the people, especially the poor and disenfranchised. The proof of the pudding is whether you have a party that can make it happen. We need to look at who would do the most, and that is the determination the Bahamian people have to make. Who will do the most to benefit the country and, by extension, the Bahamian people?”