The Tribune

With Charlie Harper

THE portentous announcement was made by a well-known, largely trusted source. “Now we can state that the Russian forces have started the battle for the Donbas that they have been getting ready for a long time. A very large part of the entire Russian army is now focused on this offensive.”

The source for this news, which made headlines all across the US earlier this week? The president of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky. This remarkable man, previously best known as a successful TV comedian and actor who was stunningly elected as president of his country in May 2019, is now often the source for “breaking news” of the attempt by Ukraine’s large, rapacious neighbour to essentially extirpate Zelensky’s homeland.

Zelensky’s highly public role as on-scene war correspondent seems to fit with a role he has defined for himself as the leading spokesman and cheerleader for his beleaguered nation. He pops up almost daily on TV screens, alternately addressing legislatures from Vienna to London to Ottawa to Washington and many places in between, offering highly quotable commentary on a war that threatens to wipe out Ukraine – and eliminate him in the process.

One of the many amazing feats achieved by this man is that he continues to survive in the face of what must be a concerted Russian effort to kill or otherwise blunt his inspirational effect on his country’s stout resistance so far to Moscow’s invasion.

Now, as the Russians gather their forces in what appears to be an effort to achieve some basis for claiming victory in a war they have so far been losing, the effects of their aggression and brutal criminality are being assessed in remote but powerful capitals.

In Brussels, NATO has unquestionably found new life. Faced with the potentially existential threat of a Russian land invasion for the first time in its life as an alliance, NATO has rallied around the US response to Russia’s Ukraine “operation,” displaying unprecedented unity. It looks ever more likely that long steadfastly neutral Finland and Sweden may react to the current war by formally applying to join the western alliance. The US has repeatedly recommitted its military might to defense of NATO member states, whose number includes several former Soviet provincial republics.

In Beijing, President Xi Jinping must be wondering these days if his continuing public embrace of Russian President Vladimir Putin is worth the resulting public relations headaches. China has built the world’s second most powerful economy and achieved worldwide political sway by trying to influence the present world order through largely socio-economic, and not military, means. China advances its objectives best through peace and relative international stability.

Russia, on the other hand, relies for its foreign exchange on energy exports. It may well profit from instability in other parts of the world. And Russia’s economy, which was about the same size as China’s 30 years ago, is now estimated to total around ten percent of the Chinese GDP.

And in Washington, the man sitting in President Joe Biden’s old Senate seat on the Foreign Relations Committee, Chris Coons, told reporters this week that “if Vladimir Putin, who has shown us how brutal he can be, is allowed to just continue to massacre civilians, to commit war crimes throughout Ukraine without NATO, without the west coming more forcefully to his aid, I deeply worry that what`s going to happen next is that we will see Ukraine turn into Syria,” he said. “Putin will only stop when we stop him.”

That sounds a lot like a call to arms. And a look back at the timeline of America’s and NATO’s increasing involvement in the fight for Ukraine’s future does reveal a picture of steadily increasing engagement. What happens if a US-escorted arms delivery or American military advisors somehow come to grief as the result of Russian aggression? What is the trigger for a much wider war?

It’s the stuff of nightmares for everyone, but especially for the Americans and their European allies.

Surge in Haitian migration

The dateline on the story was Summerland Key, Florida, home to some of the priciest real estate in the Florida Keys between Miami and Key West. The significance of that dateline is the fact that it was not Nassau, Marsh Harbour or Matthew Town.

The story of the recent Haitian migrant landing at Summerland Key underscores a surge of Haitian migration this spring, spawned no doubt by the tribulations afflicting Haiti. The Coast Guard reports intercepting around four boats per month this year so far, with an average of around 150 people on board each. In fact, since the beginning of the American government’s fiscal year on October 1, over 3,000 Haitian migrants have been intercepted at sea. During the entire previous fiscal year, less than half that total was apprehended. And two years ago, the yearly total was only around 200.

The commander of the US Coast Guard’s Key West sector said human smugglers from Haiti “have figured out a way to reach South Florida by sailing through the Old Bahama shipping route between The Bahamas and Cuba. We are adjusting our posture to respond to that,” he added.

The human smuggling business is booming. We seem to be catching a break for a change, and more of the traffic is taking a southerly approach which means it will likely miss The Bahamas. With the government facing numerous challenges here, that’s not bad news.

For law enforcement in the Florida Keys, illegal migration has reached unexpectedly high volume. An estimated 800 Haitian migrants have landed in the Keys just this year so far. It may seem ironic to some that two of the bigger group landings occurred at the ritzy, exclusive Ocean Reef Club off Highway 1 in Key Largo.

“We have not seen this number of migrants in many years; it’s very unusual,” said the Monroe County sheriff. Monroe is the reddest county in South Florida, and residents are reportedly torn between sympathy for the migrants and their adherence to the rigidly anti-migrant policies of the Republican Party.

The best of the best in soccer

In the world’s most popular sport, there’s little debate about who are now the best two teams. For this year anyway, you can overlook traditional powers such as Real Madrid and Barcelona in Spain, Paris St. Germain in France, Juventus in Italy and Bayern Munich in Germany, or several other annual contenders in England.

Europe’s – and probably the world’s – best two club teams both play in England, where the recent success of the national team in qualifying for this November’s World Cup tournament in Qatar has revived hopes for the first English world title since 1966.

Manchester City and Liverpool are simply better than anyone else, and soccer fans everywhere have been treated this month to two matches between them already with another one likely on the horizon.

Last Saturday, these giants met in the semi-final of the world’s oldest club competition, the English Football Association (FA) Cup. City was hampered tremendously by the absence through injury of the Premier League’s most consequential player, Belgian midfielder Kevin De Bruyne, and a couple of other regular players. Liverpool raced out to a three-goal lead at Wembley Stadium in London and held on to prevail 3-2 as City crept back into the game.

Less than a week earlier, current Premier League front-runners City held the upper hand at home throughout, but managed only a 2-2 draw against their closest competitors from Liverpool. These two teams had reached the same result when they played at Liverpool at the beginning of October. Currently, only one point separates the two in the EPL standings.

And now, since they are drawn on opposite backets of the European Champions League, these two teams will be favoured to play for a fourth time at the end of May at the Stade de France in Paris, where the finals have been moved from St Petersburg in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The difference so far between the teams in the EPL has been their respective performances against the third best league team, Chelsea. While Man City has twice beaten the Blues by 1-0 scores, Liverpool has only earned two ties with Chelsea. That’s a significant edge for City, and may just be enough to ensure their third title in the past four years.