The Tribune

With CHARLIE HARPER

THE crisis over Ukraine grinds on. Is the world edging slowly but perceptibly back from the brink? Maybe only Russian President Vladimir Putin knows. Pundits and commentators in the US seem divided on Putin. Some think the wily autocrat has outfoxed and outmaneuvered his American antagonists again, putting the US in a thoroughly hapless, reactionary posture.

 Others, though, think the prospect of tough Western sanctions against the families and allies of Russia’s super-wealthy oligarchs will squeeze Putin in the wallets of his most formidable and essential supporters. And while Russian troops are continuing to mass along Ukraine’s frontiers, the Ukrainian response, from its President to the man and woman in the countryside, seems calmly, almost serenely determined to resist Russian invaders to their last breath. The prospect of doing so in service of a likely futile military struggle does not appear to scare Ukrainians as much as one might imagine.

 If that attitude continues to prevail, Ukraine could turn out to be a pretty indigestible conquest for Putin’s army. And what if an invasion radicalizes vital Western trading partners, Germany in particular, against Moscow?

Russia’s inefficient corruption and unrepresentative, autocratic form of government might make it difficult to sustain its economy in the face of active German opposition and isolation from Western markets.

 There’s a growing school of thought that sustained Russian-American talks over various contentious bilateral and multilateral issues might give Putin the face-saving exit strategy from the current military build-up that he may feel he needs. And there are areas where the two nations could craft agreements, such as in certain kinds of theatre weaponry and perhaps even climate change. As US President Joe Biden mentioned in his recent press conference, Putin and his advisers might usefully think about how to deal with a rapidly thawing Siberian permafrost before committing to a potentially ruinous occupation of Ukraine.

 A potentially implacable resistance to Moscow by Ukrainians, artfully assisted by the West, might bring back uncomfortable memories of what happened to the USSR in Afghanistan. It’s for sure that Putin remembers.

Skullduggery on both sides

It’s become an article of faith in the mainstream American media that Biden and the Democrats will suffer significant losses in this November’s elections. Both Republican and Democratic strategists, mostly speaking on background, acknowledge the recent history of new American Presidents getting clobbered in the first by-election after their inauguration will continue this year.

Even prior to the 2020 general election, liberals were hand-wringing about how Republicans in a majority of statehouses across the country would “gerrymander” congressional districts to further strengthen their decisive influence on congressional district boundaries. Gerrymandering is a term used to describe one political party distorting census results to redraw congressional boundaries to ensure the job security and re-election of their incumbent state and federal legislators. The practice has persisted for over a century.

But the pundits are despairing because they say gerrymandering will only benefit the Republicans. Only the nasty GOP would resort to such skullduggery. But it seems both parties are guilty.

Since the 2020 census, 29 states have completed their redistricting process. Nine new congressional district maps - not all in Republican states - have been challenged for their lack of fairness and partisan tilt. So, while the irresistible urge to gerrymander is not limited to states where the GOP exercises political control, there are some pretty dramatic examples of raw Republican power.

Ohio is a good one. Buckeye State voters several years ago approved state constitutional changes designed to reduce partisanship. The idea was to empower an appointed bipartisan commission to “prohibit any district from primarily favouring one political party and to closely follow the statewide preferences of voters.”

How did that work last year?

Not so well. The state’s Supreme Court Chief Justice, a Republican, joined the majority in striking down the commission’s GOP-led partisan efforts.

“Having seen firsthand how the current Ohio Redistricting Commission is seemingly unwilling to put aside partisan considerations as directed by the people’s vote, Ohioans may opt to replace this commission with a truly independent one that distances the redistricting process from partisan politics.”

On the other hand, let’s consider New York state, where Democrats now control all aspects of state political power.

Their legislature, after failed attempts by supposedly bipartisan committees to redraw the state map fairly, has the responsibility to complete the job.

The result? Currently, the line-up of congressional districts favours Democrats by 19 – 5 with three fairly evenly balanced.

Under the new plan, with one fewer congressional seats due to census-confirmed population loss, will be 22-4 in favour of the Dems. None of the new districts is regarded as competitive.

In Maryland, where Democrats exercise even tighter political control, an effort has been well underway to “redistrict” the state’s few remaining GOP-leaning districts right out of existence.

Neither political party in the US seems to have gotten the memo that partisan self-interest should no longer be the default method of serving the public interest. And that’s a shame.

No-one saw this coming

Just a couple of weeks ago before the NFL play-offs started, you could  have gotten really good, long odds on a Super Bowl match-up between the Los Angeles Rams and the Cincinnati Bengals. But that’s just what lies in store for us in ten days time. First, we’ll have to endure endless detailed examinations of each team, with lots of human-interest stories on some of the players who have arrived on football’s biggest stage in unconventional ways. There will be in-depth reports on how the front office and coaching staffs on the teams have intersected over the years of their NFL careers. Etc., etc.

 As it is every year, it will be a relief for football fans about a week from now when the game actually is near. Meantime, both teams arrived at the big game as beneficiaries of rather glaring mistakes by their opposing quarterbacks in the semi-final conference championship games.

 The Bengals began on Sunday looking like oddsmakers had expected them to look from the start in these play-offs. They were yielding on defence as the host Kansas City Chiefs rolled to a nearly three-touchdown advantage in the first half, and the Cincinnati offence did not look purposeful or potent against a Chiefs defence that had yielded a lot of points and yardage the week before to the Buffalo Bills. In retrospect, a key play in the game was Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes’ failure to deliver a touchdown in the final seconds of the first half. Star wide receiver Tyreke Hill was stopped on a swing pass at the one-yard line as time ran out.

 The Chiefs only scored three points thereafter, allowing QB Joe Burrow and the Bengals to scramble back into the game. In fact, Kansas City’s only second-half points came from a field goal as time ticked away that enabled them to force overtime.

As against the Bills, KC won the toss, got the ball and history would repeat itself as they drove to victory. Right? Wrong. Mahomes was intercepted near midfield and the Bengals drove methodically down the field to set up a short field goal to win. It was a huge upset.

 Later Sunday afternoon, the Rams held serve at home to join the Bengals in the Super Bowl, where the Rams will play at their new home stadium again.

The Rams, who have added star players during the season like front-running NBA teams routinely do but NFL teams almost never do, stumbled often on their way to victory. But as in Kansas City, a key late interception thrown by the opposing quarterback, San Francisco’s Jimmy Garoppolo, was a critical element in LA’s triumph.

The Rams have had an up-and-down season this year, twice beating Tom Brady and the Buccaneers and triumphing over the Colts and Titans but losing to the Packers and twice to the 49ers. Much celebrated additions quarterback Matthew Stafford from the Lions, wideout Odell Beckham Jr from the Browns and defensive terror Von Miller from the Broncos were all hired guns imported to pursue a common passion of playing in and winning a Super Bowl.

 The Rams are early 3.5-point favourites. The Bengals have flummoxed prognosticators including this one for most of the play-offs, winning consecutive games on the road as solid underdogs. Will they continue? Stay tuned next week.