The Tribune

FOR most people the beginning of another year is a time to take stock. As well as a general look at life, making new resolutions and taking on new commitments, they are ready to air their views about the past 12 months and prospects for the future. Opinions always differ. But, in the midst of much analysis of events last year here in The Bahamas and in Britain, there seems to be a consistent refrain that while the past year was widely considered to be the worst of times, it was also in some respects the best of times. This was because, after the dark and dreary tale of the depths of the pandemic in 2020, as soon as a vaccine became available the only way was up – however long it might take.

Nonetheless, while 2020 was a year of fear, 2021 will go down as one of aching disappointment. It was the year in which the great vaccine rollout was meant to see off the pandemic only for it to strengthen its grip on the world once more last November in the shape of the new variant, Omicron – and, with it, came a return of uncertainty and a sense of continuing jeopardy.

Here in The Bahamas, other writers have already expertly analysed 2021. So suffice it to repeat briefly today that the pandemic has had disastrous effects on families and has disrupted the domestic economy which was already in a dire state, with the national debt exceeding $10 billion and the nation continuing to depend on costly borrowing. The tourism sector, in particular, was badly affected.

After an initial wave of COVID-19 infections in 2020 followed by all-enveloping lockdowns, the number of new cases gradually fell away during the course of last year so that by about the end of the summer there was even a sense that life was returning to some sort of normality. Then Omicron - said to be less virulent but more transmissible - created an explosion of new cases which, despite being milder, have put new pressure on healthcare systems.

Meanwhile, September’s general election was won overwhelmingly by the PLP in a low voter turnout - and, already, the new government seems to be inspiring growing public confidence in its effective handling of the virus crisis, with the Minister of Health providing assurances about the importance of striking “the right balance between the health crisis and the nation’s economic well-being”.

Last year in Britain, huge numbers became demoralised and demotivated, not to mention those who were struck down by the virus itself and all too often suffered the lingering effects of long-COVID as well; and, with the benefit of hindsight, any notion that 2021 would be better than the previous year was clearly unjustified.

At the beginning of the year people were in despair as the country was in its third lockdown. But, at that time - with the UK having embarked on the successful rollout of its vaccination programme the previous December - Prime Minister Boris Johnson described it as “the end in sight” and “the last phase of the struggle”. The situation gradually improved to the extent that by late summer a measure of post-COVID complacency had crept in. But only months later how wrong his earlier optimism appeared. From mid-November, the number of Omicron infections rose substantially and on the first day of January this year hit a daily record of some 160,000 with another 154 deaths.

On the broader front in Britain, towards the end of last year Mr Johnson was a much-diminished figure politically though he has a reputation for bouncing back from political adversity. In addition, the strength of the Union was under pressure from fresh aspirations north of the border about Scottish independence while the economy was further undermined by Omicron after economists and bankers had already underestimated the new levels of inflation - and, following COP26, the climate change summit in Glasgow, politicians seemed increasingly to be kow-towing to the “green lobby”- not to mention that earlier in the year the Monarchy was trashed publicly by Harry and Meghan.

Amid all this, however, it is said the British people have stayed calm and have carried on regardless and now seem to be less ready to heed the panic over Omicron generated by the health professionals and advisers who are increasingly regarded as prophets of doom as they always emphasise the worst-case scenario. There now appears to be a growing public mood of scepticism rather than the resigned fatalism with which the 2020 lockdowns were accepted.

Moreover, there is room for optimism insofar as the British government has until now rejected further draconian lockdowns for England, with the Health Minister saying tighter rules would only be imposed “as a last resort”. Meanwhile, the IMF and World Bank are forecasting five percent growth for the UK and business investment is at a healthy level. But, most of all, there has been the miracle of the vaccines, with some 75 percent of Britain’s population having now been fully jabbed. This has been faster than any other European country so that by October last year it was reported that life felt a bit better and a return to a measure of normality was on the cards. But that was until Omicron struck the following month and hopes were dashed - at least for the immediate future.

Are we just going to have to learn to live with this?

As regards the pandemic, the realists and cynics say there may be little or no change during the coming year in the short-term. The scourge of Omicron means the problem will be with us for some time, and then there is the danger of a fourth variant.

Perhaps the main lesson of the last two years is Omicron or other new variants could become endemic and that the world will have to learn to live with the virus as part of the normal pattern of seasonal illness like the flu. If so, politicians and health officials will be forced to abandon what has been termed by some as their “control freakery”, but which others call sensible precautions to protect people against an extreme pandemic.

The development of a vaccine, allied to a range of effective measures to limit the danger of spreading the virus, has marked a turning point leading to possible restoration of a former way of life in the longer term. What is more, there is now a general recognition that the key requirement should be full vaccination of as many people as possible around the world - and this means the richer countries helping to speed up vaccinations in the less developed world.

That said, since The Bahamas has ended 2021 with a surge of COVID-19 cases, considerable uncertainty remains here at home and many believe there will never be a full return to what was considered before the pandemic to be normality.

But, with a welcome resurgence of tourism to the Caribbean and interest in the country as high as ever, the financial outlook has improved with higher revenue from tourist receipts. It is clearly important for the government to ensure a balance between the need for health and safety measures and an open and newly robust economy, including the protection of people’s livelihoods. Even though Omicron infections are less severe, pressure on the healthcare system continues. So it is no surprise that elective surgeries have been suspended. There is also a compelling need for stronger policing and enforcement of existing and new protective protocols and rules in connection with large gatherings, social distancing and masks. But, above all, the emphasis should be on the continuing drive to vaccinate as many people as possible.

As for Britain, most of these considerations also apply. Some people consider that so far COVID and its variants may have found a way around the existing vaccines which protect against serious illness rather than preventing people from testing positive. But, now that the virus “is on the run”, some commentators suggest there are reasons for optimism about the coming year. The vaccine triumph is not only about the huge number of successful jabs in arms but is said also to concern the impressive new developments in vaccine technology which might contribute to the fight against other diseases and add to the knowledge about the workings of people’s immune systems.

It seems most people believe confidence needs to be restored in 2022 as we learn to live with the virus. The WHO states COVID can be defeated if countries work together to contain its spread - and that surely means vaccines must be distributed equally across the globe.

In Liz we Truss(t)

The term Brexit seems to have been around for ever. So, I found it interesting to be reminded that the Trade and Cooperation Agreement setting out the future relationship between the UK and the European Union, following the former’s withdrawal from the bloc, came into force only on January 1, 2021. This is not the time for a detailed analysis of how this relationship has been working over the past year. But I was struck by a public statement by the British Prime Minister over the Christmas period about the country going “further and faster” during the coming year in taking advantage of the opportunities presented by the UK’s departure.

In response to those who say such generalisations are not much more than a lot of hot air, it is noteworthy the newly-appointed Foreign Secretary, Liz Truss, also posted a message on twitter at the New Year about the government’s plans internationally for 2022. Since she is regarded as a champion of what is now referred to as “global Britain” and is also currently in charge of ongoing post-Brexit talks with the EU, many people are beginning to listen to what she says. In the eyes, in particular, of the UK press, she has also become a serious contender to succeed Boris Johnson as Tory leader, if and when the time comes.

Ms Truss spoke of Britain’s role in promoting freedom, democracy and free trade on the world stage, mentioning the country’s achievements during 2021; for example, hosting the G7 summit of world leaders in the summer as well as a global education summit in London, the climate change summit in Scotland in November and the G7 Foreign Ministers’ meeting in December. She also mentioned the various free trade deals which she had negotiated recently with a number of different countries in her former role as International Trade Secretary.

She pledged in 2022 to continue to “deliver for Britain” during 2022 by boosting economic and security ties across the world and building what she called a global network of liberty. She referred specifically to negotiations already underway for the UK to join the CPTPP – the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership - which includes nations like Japan, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Malaysia and Mexico.

In the coming months, it will be interesting, in particular, to see how the new Foreign Secretary handles talks with the EU, not least in relation to the complex and controversial Northern Ireland protocol. But, if - as some commentators suggest - growing pressure on the Prime Minister results in a Conservative Party leadership contest later this year, Liz Truss is clearly already someone to watch as a potential successor to the embattled Boris Johnson.