The Tribune

A NEW study has projected that due to the Omicron variant in The Bahamas, daily case numbers could reach a high of 2,610 by February 13.

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, an independent global health research centre at the University of Washington, used local data through December 13, 2021 and ran its model which produced the new data on December 21, 2021. The study presents several possible scenarios by which infections, cases, hospitalisations and deaths could reach maximum levels. These scenarios include a reference scenario; high severity of Omicron scenario; 80 percent mask coverage scenario; third dose scenario; and reduced vaccine hesitancy scenario.

 Regarding infections, IHME said daily estimated infections in the reference scenario, which represents what they believe is most likely to happen, could rise to 2,610 by February 13.

 This same figure is projected in the high severity of Omicron scenario by February 13 while the data projects that daily estimated infections in the 80 percent mask coverage scenario could rise to 1,190 by February 16.

 Daily estimated infections in the third dose scenario could rise to 2,350 by February 13 while daily estimated infections in the reduced vaccine hesitancy scenario will rise to 2,590 by February 13.

 Regarding hospitalisations, the study noted that it was likely that there could be 20 people admitted per day by March 13.

 Other scenarios considered were daily hospital census in the high severity of Omicron scenario which could rise to 30 by March 14 and daily hospital census in the third dose scenario could rise to 10 by March 13.

 Meanwhile, daily hospital census in the reduced vaccine hesitancy scenario could rise to 20 by March 13.

 The report also noted deaths could reach 820 by April 1. Since the start of the pandemic, there have been 717 deaths reported by local health officials.

 However, according to the IHME there could be a little over 100 deaths from December 13 to April 1.

 Under its reference scenario, IHME’s model projects 1,200 cumulative total deaths due to COVID-19 on April 1. This represents 150 additional deaths from December 13 to April 1.

 The report explained its projections and scenarios.

 “We produce five scenarios when projecting COVID-19. The reference scenario is our forecast of what we think is most likely to happen: vaccines are distributed at the expected pace. Brand and variant-specific vaccine efficacy is updated using the latest available information from peer-reviewed publications and other reports.

 “Future mask use is the mean of mask use over the last seven days. Mobility increases as vaccine coverage increases. Omicron variant spreads according to our flight and local spread model. Eighty percent of those who have had two doses of vaccine (or one dose for Johnson & Johnson) receive a third dose at six months after their second dose.”

 The report continued: “The high severity of Omicron scenario modifies the reference scenario assumption in two ways: The infection-hospitalisation ratio for Omicron is 2.3 times as high as compared to the reference scenario. The infection-fatality rate is 4.6 times as high as compared to the reference scenario.

 “The 80 percent mask use scenario makes all the same assumptions as the reference scenario but assumes all locations reach 80 percent mask use within seven days. If a location currently has higher than 80 percent use, mask use remains at the current level.

“The third dose scenario is the same as the reference scenario but assumes that 100 percent of those who have received two doses of vaccine will get a third dose at six months.

 “The reduced vaccine hesitancy scenario assumes that those in each location who respond on surveys that they probably will not receive a vaccine are persuaded or mandated to receive a vaccine.”

 The report is dated December 27, 2021.

 Yesterday, 315 new cases of COVID-19 were reported in The Bahamas.

 That is 279 in New Providence, 22 in Grand Bahama, two in Abaco, one each in both Eleuthera and Exuma, four in Long Island, two in San Salvador and four cases with locations pending.

 Officials said 45 of the new cases had a history of travel.

 There were also 58 people in hospital receiving treatment - 55 were moderately ill and three in the intensive care unit.