The Tribune

With CHARLIE HARPER

“I’M just disgusted by what’s happening in the US,” the Bahamian lady said over the telephone. WhatsApp, of course. “What a colossal mess! You know, I heard the other day someone was talking, and they said that the Democrats actually figured out how to entice the conservatives on the Supreme Court to vote on Roe v Wade right now, because it’s the only thing that can prevent a Republican takeover of Congress in November.”

How could the Democrats accomplish that? “I have no idea,” she said. “But you know how things are in Washington. Anything is possible, and these characters are capable of anything.”

Another local acquaintance adopted a different perspective. “The Democrats had better hope that Donald Trump somehow hangs on and gets the Republican nomination in a couple of years. He would be the only reason for any sensible person to vote for Joe Biden another time.

“Look at all the Republicans who might be getting prepared to run for office in 2024,” he continued. “Mike Pence, who may have saved American democracy when he defied Trump on January 6 last year. Mike Pompeo, look at his resume: West Point, businessman, member of Congress, CIA director and Secretary of State. And he’s lost a bunch of weight. Nikki Haley, how well she carries herself. Former UN ambassador. Good executive experience in South Carolina. All of these sat at the cabinet table in Trump’s White House.”

His brother got on the line. “How about those that didn’t serve under Trump? They might have an advantage if some of these court cases turn out badly for Trump. Look at Ron DeSantis. Everyone in the GOP seems to really like what he is saying and doing. He feels the frustrations of everyday people who are unhappy with the education their kids are getting in school. He doesn’t just talk; he acts. This guy seems like Trump without all the tweeting and craziness.

“There’s plenty of other Republicans to choose from if Trump doesn’t run after all or if he gets knocked off by Democratic prosecutors. You’ve got Rick Scott and a couple of others in Florida alone. And don’t forget Ted Cruz in Texas and Tom Cotton in Arkansas. There’re several women governors and senators, too. Lots of attractive possibilities.”

Another Bahamian has lived for many years in the US, but has now been back home for a while. “To be honest,” she said, “I’m glad I’m not over there anymore. Biden just can’t seem to get any traction. The jobs reports are looking pretty rosy and unemployment is back under four percent. But I was just over in Miami a couple of weeks ago, and I’ll tell you: the rise in prices is clear almost everywhere you go. It’s not at all just at the gas station. Stuff that might have cost a couple of dollars in the spring now costs what seems like 50 percent more. Your dollar just doesn’t go as far. I figured that a pound of butter is up way over a dollar a month since March.

“So what has Biden been able to do about any of this? He mostly talks a good game, seems animated and determined most of the time. But are gas prices or any other prices – including interest rates and home prices – coming down? Not that I can see. It’s no wonder people are so discouraged.”

Bahamians always have some pretty well-informed views on the goings-on with our giant neighbour. And the views above are very well reflected in some of the polls now starting to appear in the early stages of November election frenzy in America.

The New York Times, for instance, just issued its first comprehensive poll of American voter attitudes four months ahead of the next elections. The Times found that more than three-quarters of registered voters see the United States moving in the wrong direction. Their pollsters found a sense of pessimism that seems to infect every part of the country, every age and racial group, cities, suburbs and rural areas. The two major political parties aren’t seen as part of the solution, either.

Headlines across the country are focused on the poll’s findings that even many Democrats and independents who voted for Biden two years ago now wish he wouldn’t run again. Only 26 percent favour a second Biden term. Additionally, more than two-thirds of independents also say they now disapprove of Biden’s performance, and nearly half of those say they disapprove strongly. For Democrats, his approval is 70 percent, not a comforting figure for an incumbent President. Biden’s advanced age is increasingly held against him.

Biden is already, at the age of 79, the oldest President in American history. It’s probably not very surprising that in the new poll, pushback against Mr Biden and a preference to move in a new direction were particularly acute among younger voters. But look at this figure: In the survey, 94 percent of Democrats under the age of 30 said they would prefer that someone else run for the Democratic nomination.

Who would that be, exactly? The constitutional first choice would be the Vice President, former California attorney general and then US Senator Kamala Harris, the first black woman to hold the nation’s second-highest job.

But the problem with Harris is that literally almost no one thinks she has yet shown anything to suggest she is up to the job of President. This is of course altogether unfair, since she has been given relatively few headline assignments, at least publicly. And one of her assignments that did garner headlines – the effort to squelch illegal immigration across America’s southern border with Mexico by stimulating Central American economies – was rancid old wine in a new bottle and was appropriately dead-on arrival as a policy initiative.

Who else do the Democrats have? There’s Transportation Secretary and former South Bend, Indiana mayor Pete Buttigieg. He was a primary election star in 2020, but is still awfully young and young looking. Probably not ready for prime time. The Secretary of Commerce, Gina Raimondo, brought with her to Washington the reputation of having been a terrific governor of Rhode Island. But have you ever heard of her? The current governor of California, Gavin Newsome, is making noises that suggest he is looking forward to a presidential run sometime. There are of course others, but we’re reaching here. Bernie Sanders has said he is done with presidential election participation, at least as a candidate.

Somewhat ironically, then, we have the Republicans with a pretty deep bench of potential standard-bearers for 2024, despite the elephantine shadow of Donald Trump’s likely candidacy dimming everyone else’s chances to run for the top job. The Dems, at least now, are thin on the ground by comparison.

Furthermore, historically, challenges to a sitting President from within his own party have led to devastating defeats not only in the immediate term but also beyond.

Veteran Democratic strategist Joe Trippi told the Times he hopes anyone thinking of a Biden primary challenge realizes it would be “murder-suicide,” and warned his fellow Democrats that “nothing good can come from it”.

“I learned that lesson the hard way as a young idealistic progressive in the late 70s early 80s,” Trippi said. “What we got for it was eight years of Reagan and four years of George H.W. Bush.”

Getting back to the Times poll, its results did show Biden enjoys a slight but not insignificant advantage over one potential 2024 opponent – the same man he defeated two years ago. The margin is three points right now. The poll showed Democratic voter concerns about Mr Biden’s age or other issues basically disappeared when those voters were presented with a choice between him and Trump - 92 percent of Democrats said they would stick with Mr. Biden.

This recalled for the reporter of one of Biden’s favorite aphorisms: “Don’t compare me to the Almighty, compare me to the alternative.”

For now, Biden is burdened with what looks like runaway inflation; a potential looming recession; pain at the gas pump; the recalcitrant resistance to any initiatives from his Republican opposition; his advancing age and an inexorably deepening involvement in a European bloodbath that shows no signs of receding.

Reaching and surviving November will be a challenge.