The Tribune

THROUGHOUT the pandemic, we have been aware of the economic effects hitting our country, without perhaps always being able to put a precise number to them.

One of those numbers was the rate of unemployment – with the Labour Director in February last year suggesting that about 40 percent of the country was unemployed, even as the Labour Minister at the time, Dion Foulkes, suggested that unemployment was “way down” with people getting back to work.

The official count was effectively suspended, as were the provisions of the Employment Act which mandated that companies had to pay full severance to those sent home for 90 days.

So with furloughs, unemployment assistance and the lack of a solid count, it was hard to see exactly how deeply our country was affected – and continues to be hit.

In today’s Tribune, it is reported that the International Monetary Fund projects a 13.9 percent unemployment rate this year – about one in seven people without a job.

That’s higher than before the pandemic – but significantly improved on the past two years, with 2020 particularly seeing a rate of 25.6 percent, or one in four people without a job.

It is important to take note of such numbers, because they show how far we have come, and how far we still have to go.

Are we improving? Yes. But one in seven people will not feel that improvement just yet.

The other side of it is that at the same time our gross domestic product (GDP) also took a hit – down by 14.5 percent in 2020, one of the biggest drops in the region.

Again, that shouldn’t be a surprise – as an economy with such a large share dependent on tourism, when the flights stopped coming, so did the money.

And our debt doesn’t help matters – with our public debt being about as much as our GDP.

In other words, we owe as much as we make in a year. That’s not a healthy position to be in.

Labour Minister Keith Bell says the figures from the IMF sound about right, but wants to wait for the annual Labour Force Survey to be sure. That’s sensible, but this does give us a snapshot of how our economy is faring.

There are more positives too, with the IMF praising the government’s “well-calibrated” plans to eliminate persistent deficits and boost tax enforcement – a pat on the back for Prime Minister Philip “Brave” Davis and his team.

Then there are the negatives – with the IMF dangling the prospect of more taxes to increase the ratio of revenue to GDP.

That won’t be a welcome thought – and as long as unemployment remains high, it will have a limited effect. Those out of work won’t contribute much in tax – they’re having enough trouble as it is to get by, so any tax affecting them won’t help anyone. Getting more people back into work and expanding the tax base would be the ideal goal – even if the IMF doesn’t sound patient enough for that.

Overall, it is an incomplete picture, but an encouraging one showing that we are moving away from the greatest impact of the pandemic, even if that journey will be a long one.

There is, however, one thing all of us can do to help. With the prospect of more waves of the virus still to come – Europe is presently experiencing a surge – we can make sure we are fully vaccinated and fully boosted. That in itself might help reduce the effect of any future waves – and we need only look at these figures to see what that might mean for our economy.