The Tribune

IT is beyond belief that this can really be happening. Such was the anguished reaction of a friend after watching last week the most recent television coverage of the horror taking place in Ukraine. Not easily shocked, he found the situation there appalling and distressing; in particular, the latest footage of the destruction of the city of Mariupol with the shelling of schools and hundreds trapped under the rubble of a bombed theatre where they had taken refuge.

The conflict in Ukraine is a human tragedy – the worst fighting in Europe since the Second World War more than seventy years ago - unfolding inexorably before the eyes of the rest of the world. Prime Minister Boris Johnson has called the latest actions of the Russians “vicious and barbarous attacks on innocent civilians”; and, for Europeans, it is close to home in a country sharing borders with four member states of the EU. It is all the worse for being man-made, unprovoked and avoidable – a Kafkaesque nightmare that did not have to happen. It is also beyond any logical reasoning because by his invasion Putin has ensured the proud country of Ukraine can never be absorbed peacefully into Russia’s sphere of influence, which was his declared objective.

The Russian leader’s huge public rally in Moscow last week was a sickening display of lies and hypocrisy. He repeated the fiction about “a special military operation” – rather than an invasion and war - to liberate Ukraine from neo-Nazis and nationalists and portrayed Russia as a besieged fortress under attack from the West. He is living in an alternative reality and using “double-think” when words have an opposite meaning – as George Orwell famously warned about in describing language that deliberately obscures or distorts meanings. But lying comes easily in Russia as people in Britain discovered most recently in the Novichok poisoning scandal in the city of Salisbury in 2018.

Putin will no doubt have wanted to counter the recent warning on social media by the Hollywood actor and former California governor, Arnold Schwarzenegger, about Russian misinformation and propaganda in relation to Ukraine. On a video link, he told the Russian people that Ukraine did not start this war but “those in power in the Kremlin did” and, addressing Putin directly, said “you started this war and you can stop it”.

With the invasion in to its fourth week, more and more commentators and historians are expressing views about the West’s lack of constructive and effective diplomacy following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991.

As I wrote last week, policy-makers at the time, who seemed more interested in playing hardball without taking account of Russian concerns, pursued the expansion of NATO against the advice of experienced observers. This expansion did not, of course, include Ukraine which has not joined the organisation. But in recent months, when Russian troops were massing on the border, Western diplomacy seemed to concentrate more on warning Putin of the serious consequences of invading - and an insistence that Ukraine had the right to decide whether or not to join NATO - rather than offering assurances that it would not do so, which has now turned out to be the case. But, of course, none of this can justify Putin’s unacceptable aggression.

In studying the background to all this, an internet search shows that none other than Dr Henry Kissinger, former US Secretary of State and National Security Advisor, wrote in 2014 that Ukraine had always been seen as a part of Russia but it had a complex history and, as a nation, had always been split between its eastern and western parts, with the latter only being incorporated into the USSR in 1939.

He said that a wise policy for the Western allies would be to get the two parts of Ukraine to seek reconciliation and cooperate with each other as a single country which should act as a bridge between East and West. It should not join NATO but should pursue a posture comparable to Finland whereby “that nation leaves no doubt about its fierce independence and cooperates with the West but carefully avoids institutional hostility towards Russia”. Dr Kissinger went on to remark that US policy-makers by and large did not understand Russian history or psychology.

For many, all this is now academic and the present horrific conflict has to be dealt with as it exists. The supply to Ukraine of military equipment will continue and most people surely understand the stance of Western leaders in refusing to be involved in a no-fly zone because of the danger of a direct clash with Russia that could lead to a nuclear war. But the terror inflicted on the Ukrainian people is getting worse as the invaders have changed tactics after the initial strong resistance of Ukrainian forces and have been targeting civilians more and more – with, reportedly, more than 900 Ukrainian citizens killed and, according to the UN, 10 million people forced out of their homes and displaced.

If the war is drawn out further and develops into one of attrition, public demand for some form of new and different action by the West to try to stop the fighting will surely grow, with pressure on NATO to be more proactive without engaging directly with the Russians. So, many will welcome the news that there will be a NATO summit meeting in Brussels on March 24 to be attended by President Biden. A compromise peace plan is needed for an end to hostilities, and the possibility remains of achieving this with the help of China. Meanwhile, new peace talks are under way, but the British Foreign Secretary, Liz Truss, is quoted as saying that these may be a smokescreen or diversion on the part of the Russians to give them time to regroup - for, she asks, if they are serious about peace, why are they continuing indiscriminately to bomb civilians?

ARE NUREMBERG-TYPE TRIALS LIKELY?

A new dimension to the Ukraine conflict has arisen which seems so far to have escaped much scrutiny by the US media. A petition calling for the creation of a new international tribunal to investigate Putin and those around him over the invasion went live on March 14. Two former British Prime Ministers, Gordon Brown and Sir John Major, are among some 150 academics, lawyers and politicians who have signed the petition to establish a legal system modelled on the Nuremberg trials of Nazi war criminals after the Second World War, which took place after a decision was taken by the Allies in 1942 to punish war crimes. It has been reported that the petition has already received more than 800,000 signatures.

It is the case that the International Criminal Court is already investigating Putin for alleged war crimes in Ukraine and is collecting evidence. But, from what I have read, the ICC’s powers are limited in so far as it cannot pursue the crime of aggression without a referral from the UN Security Council which Russia would veto. Last week, President Biden called Putin a war criminal for the first time, as has Boris Johnson as well as President Zelensky, who has said specifically that the blockade and destruction of Mariupol will be remembered for centuries as a war crime.

Gordon Brown has stated publicly that the war has seen the indiscriminate bombing of civilians which is against international law, as well as breaches of humanitarian ceasefires together with nuclear threats as a form of blackmail. It was essential, he said, to ensure there was a day of reckoning for Putin whose forces were deliberately targeting civilians with missiles fired at hospitals and other public buildings, schools and apartment blocks. In addition to the atrocities in the besieged city of Mariupol, which is apparently seen by the Russians as strategically important because it provides a land corridor from Crimea, they have been accused of shelling a convoy of cars carrying civilians fleeing the fighting.

Mr Brown added that the petition’s authors have asked world leaders – most of whom have already strongly criticised Putin over his illegal invasion – to hold him personally accountable for the reckless and indiscriminate use of firepower.

Commonwealth Day - a time to celebrate

In the midst of so much horror in eastern Europe, it is good to be able to take note of a happier event last week. This was Commonwealth Day on March 14. A special multi-faith service was held in Westminster Abbey in central London which was reported to be a wonderful celebration of all the Commonwealth stands for. The Queen missed the event but, according to Buckingham Palace, her absence was not due to illness or on doctors’ orders but rather that she was pacing herself as she prepares for the memorial service for the Duke of Edinburgh at the end of this month.

The entire service was themed around The Queen’s seventy years as Head of the Commonwealth and, despite her absence, her heartfelt annual message called on Commonwealth member states to “draw strength and inspiration from what we share, as we work together towards a healthy, sustainable and prosperous future for all” (see full text on this page).

The core message remains - as always – unity, cooperation and friendship. While the Commonwealth has evolved from the days of Empire, it is a voluntary organisation that has grown from eight nations at the beginning of The Queen’s reign to a current tally of 54. It is a family of 2.6 billion people across six continents and some 60 per cent of its people are under 30. The Commonwealth represents a rich diversity of traditions, experience and talents. It is built on shared values, a common language, historic cultural and sporting links, democratic principles and the rule of law which underpin established trade and investment connections within the organisation.

Members of the Commonwealth benefit from a plethora of civic bodies and charities helping one another in every sphere - and a notable example of mutual assistance was how the Commonwealth rallied round to help Tonga in a variety of ways after the eruption of a volcano in that island nation earlier this year.

There is also widespread technical cooperation, including scientific and educational exchanges – and The Bahamas, classified as a Small Island Developing State, gains from cooperation in relation to climate change. This is an important issue for the Commonwealth given that 23 of its 54 members are classified the same. It is also interesting to note that The Bahamas should benefit from a new scholarship scheme announced by the Prince of Wales for students from small island nations.

Some people may have noted current political tensions arising from a handful of member states, including Uganda, Tanzania and India, which abstained from the recent UN vote condemning the Russian invasion of Ukraine. But Commonwealth Day is not about political matters. It is rather a celebration of the organisation’s enduring strengths which The Queen promotes – and this is symbolised well by the Commonwealth Games. The event takes place every four years and will be held in the city of Birmingham in England in July, with the baton relay coming to The Bahamas early next month.

As a local celebration of Commonwealth Day, it was noteworthy that this year British High Commissioner Sarah Dickson visited R M Bailey Senior High School where she not only explained to the students what the Commonwealth is all about but also participated in a demonstration of the cooking of guava duff. The event was also attended by both the Minister of Education, Glenys Hanna Martin, and the Minister of State, Zane Lightbourne - and it was good to see that it was covered fully in The Tribune, including some nice photographs, the following day.