The Tribune

By NEIL HARTNELL

Tribune Business Editor

nhartnell@tribunemedia.net

Merchants are enduring “the greatest period of uncertainty” they have ever encountered, the Bahamas Federation of Retailers’ co-chair says, adding: “We’re getting hit from every angle.”

Tara Morley told Tribune Business in a recent interview that what separates the past two-and-a-half years from previous crises, such as the 2008-2009 financial crash and recession and September 11 terror attacks, is that the retail industry and wider Bahamian economy are suffering “back-to-back” blows with little end in sight.

“It’s definitely uncertain times,” she told this newspaper. “I’d probably put it on a par with the 2008 crisis. That was also a drastic blow, as was September 11. We’ve seen some crises before, but what probably differentiates this from some of the other crises in the past is we’re sort of getting hit from every angle, whether from COVID, a bunch of supply chain issues to the rise in inflation and now with the threat of World War 3 upon us [Russia’s invasion of Ukraine].

“To have everything back-to-back has been very trying for businesses to manage. Businesses are taking it day-by-day, and having a new crisis seems to be the new normal. People have got a lot more flexibility in having business models that adapt as quickly as possible to the ongoing changes in the business environment.

“Certainly in my lifetime, it’s been the biggest period of uncertainty, but we’re still pushing through, and just trying to adapt and keep an eye on everything going on in Russia and Ukraine to try and understand what the potential fall-out could be for our market.”

As to what those impacts might be, Ms Morley pointed to fuel and food prices as areas where Bahamian consumers are taking an immediate hit. “The bigger ones will be the surge in fuel prices, which will have an inflationary impact across-the-board with shipping costs increasing yet again,” she added.

“The supply chain issues are still ongoing and inflation, unfortunately, I would say is only going to get worse with the Ukraine crisis having a major impact on the price of fuel, which will have an impact on the cost of shipping. The Bahamas is a price taker, so we’re just going to be absorbing the inflation passed on by the supply and demand from the rest of the world.

“It’s definitely something we’re trying to navigate and figure out how it’s going to impact consumer spending going forward. I think one potential benefit for The Bahamas, being so close to the US, is that we might be a more appealing destination. Air fares will be lower than going to Europe and further away. We’ll wait and see how this plays out. Nothing is letting up.”

With Russia and Ukraine accounting for around one-third of the world’s supply of wheat, a major staple in cereals and a number of foods, Ms Morley added of rising food prices: “It’s just going to be additional stress on the consumer. I think the world is watching with bated breath to see what the wider implications will be. We know it will result in additional inflationary pressures.”

Calling on Bahamas Power & Light (BPL) to “be more seriously looking at greener alternatives” for energy and how it can begin the transition to such sources, the Federation of Retailers co-chair said recent COVID-19 outbreaks in some of China’s major commercial, port and manufacturing hubs only threaten to make the supply chain woes worse due to resulting lockdowns and other restrictions.

“It’s going to send shocks into the system,” Ms Morley, who operates three retail formats, Cole’s of Nassau, Morley for Men and Maison Decor, said. She added that shipment delays depended on the product and market where goods were originating from.

“Personally, we’ve been experiencing delays from Brazil, China, India, and have had a lot of delays from Indonesia. Every different market has a reason for the delays, and it’s completely product-dependent. There’s still a backlog and container shortage, so we do not expect that to change in the foreseeable future according to our sources.

“For us, at least, the delays are on par with what we experienced at Christmas. We had some shipments that were supposed to come in October that were not received until January, but we had shipments ordered for November that arrived in November....... There’s no escaping. It’s a bit of a crap shoot. I’d definitely say for businesses that have the ability to stock up to do so.”