The Tribune

By NEIL HARTNELL

Tribune Business Editor

nhartnell@tribunemedia.net

Tourist arrivals to The Bahamas increased almost ten-fold in March 2022 compared to the prior year aided by the continued easing of COVID-related border restrictions and a rebound in global travel, it was revealed yesterday.

The Central Bank, in its update on April’s economic developments, said total arrivals by first port of entry jumped to 632,102 this year as opposed to just 62,765 for March 2021 when The Bahamas was still impacted by multiple pandemic-related measures.

“As major source markets further adjusted to COVID-19 pandemic conditions, initial data indicated that monthly tourism output maintained its growth momentum in March,” its report stated. “Air traffic yielded 147,616, compared to 56,371 in the prior year, regaining 73.2 percent of the volumes registered in 2019. In addition, sea traffic was reinstated at 475,486” from a mere 6,394 visitors in the previous year, when cruise sailings remained suspended.

“Disaggregated by major markets, total arrivals to New Providence amounted to 304,506 in March from 39,093 in the comparative period of 2021. Underlying this outturn, the air and sea segments both rose to 112,719 and 191,787 visitors, respectively.

“Similarly, foreign arrivals to Grand Bahama advanced to 27,932 vis-à-vis 1,973 in the preceding year, as air and sea arrivals measured 3,458 and 24,474, respectively. Further, traffic to the Family Islands resumed at 290,664, compared to just 21,699 in the prior year, attributed to gains in the air and sea components, to 31,439 and 259,225, respectively.”

As a result, the Central Bank not surprisingly found that total arrivals for the 2022 first quarter were up by an astonishing 1,061.9 percent compared to the COVID ravaged period the year before. Air arrivals were ahead by 212.3 percent, while sea arrivals increased by 7,779.6 percent due to the fact the cruise industry was still totally shut down in early 2021 and only resumed sailing in the late second to early third quarter. The only sea arrivals prior were boaters.

“On a year-to-date basis, the destination recovered to 1.347m arrivals, vis-à-vis 115,894 in the comparative 2021 period, a reversal from a 93.2 percent contraction recorded in the preceding year,” the Central Bank said. “Supporting this outcome, air visitors increased more than three-fold to 321,328 passengers, contrasting with the 70.4 percent fall-off recorded a year earlier, with all major markets improved during the review period.

“Likewise, sea arrivals recovered to 1.025m visitors, following a 99 percent reduction in 2021.” In similar vein, total air departures were up 236.2 percent for the first four months of 2022, with those to the US up 204.3 percent and non-US international departures increasing by 784.3 percent.

“More recent data provided by the Nassau Airport Development Company (NAD) for the month of April showed that total departures - net of domestic passengers - expanded to 125,061 from 47,332 in the corresponding month of 2021,” the Central Bank said. “Specifically, US departures amounted to 106,773 vis-à-vis 45,995 a year earlier, while non-US departures advanced to 18,288 from 1,337 in the preceding year.

“On a year-to-date basis, total outbound traffic more than tripled to 400,147, from 119,018 passengers in the previous year - a recovery from the 67.9 percent decline a year earlier. Reflective of this outturn, US departures rose to 342,205, a turnaround from the 63.8 percent contraction in 2021. Similarly, non-US departures advanced to 57,942, a switch from an 89.2 percent fall-off during the same period of last year.”

As for the vacation rental market, data from AirDNA for the first four months of 2022 showed room nights sold had risen by 71.9 percent year-over-year. The average daily rate (ADR) for hotel comparables was up by 15.2 percent, and ADR for entire place listings was ahead by 8.8 percent.

“In the short-term vacation rental market, data provided by AirDNA showed ongoing gains during the month of April. Specifically, total room nights sold firmed to 145,137 from 114,718 in the corresponding 2021 period. Contributing to this outcome, occupancy rates for both entire place and hotel comparable listings increased to 61 percent and 55.6 percent, respectively, from 54.5 percent and 47.7 percent in the comparative period last year,” the Central Bank said.

“Further, price indicators revealed that year-over-year, the average daily room rate (ADR) for hotel comparable listings moved higher by 13.8 percent to $196.22 and for entire place listings by 6.9 percent to $514.52.”

Giving an economic outlook that was little changed, the Central Bank said: “The domestic economy is expected to sustain its recovery trajectory in 2022, undergirded by an ongoing strengthening in tourism sector output. However, the sector’s downside risk exposures persist, as new strains of the COVID-19 virus emerge which could potentially stall progress made on the international health front and dampen the travel industry prospects.

“In addition, elevated international fuel costs could weaken the travel sector’s competitiveness, while the major central banks’ counter-inflation policies could erode the travel spending means of consumers in key source markets. Nonetheless, new and ongoing foreign investment-led projects, along with post-hurricane reconstruction works, are projected to provide continued stimulus to the construction sector.

“In the labour market, the unemployment rate is anticipated to remain above pre-pandemic levels, with any job gains concentrated mainly in the construction sector and the rehiring of tourism sector employees. In terms of prices, the domestic inflation rate is expected to be elevated in the near-term, underpinned by the increase in international oil prices, higher costs for other imported goods and supply chain shortages, related to the ongoing geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe.”