The Tribune

With CHARLIE HARPER

DONALD Trump was correct. Mitch McConnell was also correct.

AS soon as the Supreme Court ruled at the end of its last term to withdraw federal protection for a woman’s right to have an abortion by overturning the 1973 Roe v. Wade decision, Trump was widely quoted saying that the decision, and its timing, would hurt the Republicans in the general election last week.

And McConnell, itching to resume his prior role as Senate Majority Leader, complained in public over the summer about how the “quality” of GOP Senate candidates might imperil his chances to once again command a majority in the US upper house of Congress.

In the aftermath of last Tuesday’s surprisingly strong performance by the Democrats, both men were proven to be prescient. The irony for Republicans is that each was largely responsible for the accurate forecast of the other.

When Trump complained about the political fallout from the high court’s abortion decision, he could fairly attribute the makeup and zeal of that court to McConnell’s refusal to grant a hearing to Barack Obama’s 2016 nominee for the Supreme Court – current Attorney General Merrick Garland. The vacancy had occurred when longtime conservative justice Antonin Scalia died. McConnell’s stall tactic ultimately led to the nomination and confirmation of conservative antiabortion Justice Neil Gorsuch within the first three months of Trump’s term as president.

Then, at the end of Trump’s term, McConnell pushed through in record time the confirmation of perhaps even more conservative antiabortion Justice Amy Comey Barrett to replace liberal megastar Ruth Bader Ginsberg, who died from pancreatic cancer but resisted pleas to retire while Barack Obama was president and could have nominated her successor.

McConnell was thus the mastermind who tactically facilitated the installation of today’s hard-right leaning Supreme Court that in turn moved swiftly to overturn Roe v Wade and open the door for states to outlaw the practice. In the process, the Court helped Democrats mobilize for their recent electoral success by reportedly convincing almost every American woman with a college degree to vote for the Dems.

But at the same time, the blame for McConnell’s complaints about the quality of GOP Senate candidates for this cycle could fairly be assigned to Trump, who recruited and endorsed several primary election candidates who seemed so unelectable that the Democrats actually supported their primary campaigns, figuring they’d be easier to beat. The Dems were correct in almost every case.

When Republican voters dutifully nominated questionable candidates for governor in states like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Arizona whose principal qualification was their obeisance to Trump and his bogus claims about 2020 election fraud, the GOP got what it richly deserved: Defeat.

Additionally, every election denier candidate who ran for the office of Secretary of State -- the top election official -- in critical battleground states lost their election, as voters rejected partisans who promised to limit voting opportunities and distort the electoral process.

“When my coalition of secretary of state candidates around the country gets elected, we’re going to fix the whole country, and President Trump is going to be president again in 2024,” Trump endorsee and Nevada secretary of state candidate Jim Marchant boasted at a rally held with Trump last month. Marchant then lost to Democrat Cisco Aguilar.

“People are tired of chaos,” Mr. Aguilar told reporters after his victory. “They want stability; they want normalcy; they want somebody who’s going to be an adult and make decisions that are fair, transparent, and in the best interests of everyone.”

So the two top politicians in the Republican Party, profoundly disdainful of each other, managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of virtually certain victory. McConnell will have to suffer through at least two more years as Minority Leader; it’s less certain how high a price Trump might have to pay.

Many observers feel that Republicans will again fall in line behind Trump as he runs again in 2024 despite his outrageous behaviour, narcissistic decision making and evident disregard for the success of his political party.

Most Republicans did the same thing in the days after the January 6 capitol riots.

Indeed, unless the American economy sustains a comeback and President Joe Biden discovers the Fountain of Youth, a third Trump presidential candidacy might be the best hope Biden and the Democrats have to retain the White House next time around.

It might nonetheless not be an easy path to renomination for the former president. Trump has seen his support dwindle among Republicans and Americans who lean Republican, even if a majority (60%) say they feel warmly toward him, according to a Pew Research Center survey released this week. That number is down from 79% who said the same in April 2020, and 67% in July 2021.

It will be fascinating to watch it all unfold.

GROUPS TO WATCH AS THE WORLD CUP KICKS OFF ON SUNDAY

While which one is preeminent is the subject of much debate, there is no doubt that the biggest, most-watched sports events in the entire world are the Summer Olympics and the World Cup. The Olympic Games are two years off. The World Cup begins on Sunday.

The decision by soccer’s ruling body to stage this year’s championship tournament in Qatar was all about money. That’s good for FIFA and its member associations, but potentially disastrous for the players, almost all of whom are interrupting their busy national and club competition schedules to accommodate a wintertime event otherwise contested in the summer.

The World Cup features eight groups of four national teams each. These groups will compete against each other and the top two will emerge for the second round, which begins two Weeks later on December 3.

The past two decades at the World Cup have been dominated by European teams, who have been winners of the last four World Cups and were 13 of the 16 semi-finalists in that time. But the early betting favourite this year is mighty Brazil at 4 – 1. Regional rival Argentina is next at 11 – 2, followed by European giants France (13 – 2), England (15 – 2) and Spain (also 15 – 2). This favourites list omits Germany, Croatia, Belgium and surprising Denmark, all of whom also have an outside chance at the title.

There’s always much speculation about the competitiveness of the initial eight groupings, but the top seeds usually prevail without too much suspense. Here are the most interesting groups, with their degree of competitiveness as rated by Aljazeera’s world website:

Group E (second most competitive): Germany, Spain, Costa Rica, Japan. The Germans generally do well in the World Cup, and it would be surprising if they fail to continue this year. This team qualified with nine wins out of 10 matches, and its tactics and discipline should serve it well. Inconsistent Spain is the likely second-place finisher, though neither Costa Rica nor Japan would shock with an upset.

Group B (first): England, USA, Wales, Iran. The English are coming into this tournament hamstrung by injuries to defenders and wingers Kyle Walker, Reece James and Ben Chilwell. The team is also too dependent on Tottenham’s Harry Kane for scoring. Gareth Bale of Wales is the biggest star on the three other teams, any of which could advance. Wales is in the World Cup for the first time since 1958. The U.S. will need to improve recent form to advance.

Group F (third): Belgium, Canada, Croatia, Morocco. Belgium still boasts Kevin De Bruyne and Thibaut Courtois. It is still capable of devastating attacking football, but the defense is old and slow. Croatia has a cohesive core of skilled players, and they did finish second in the most recent 2018 World Cup.

The Canadians were unbeaten in qualifying against Mexico and the U.S., and they feature Alphonso Davies, probably the highest-profile star in their history.

Group G (fourth): Brazil, Serbia, Switzerland, Cameroon. Brazil has lost only one of its last 29 games and features Neymar and a star-studded supporting cast. They’re favourites for a reason. The others are in a balanced group, each hoping to finish second.

Elsewhere, France and Denmark are clearly the class of Group D. Argentina should prevail in Group C, seeking Lionel Messi’s first World Cup and to extend a current 35-game unbeaten streak. Injuries will hamper Portugal in Group H, where Uruguay and Korea threaten.

Finally, Group A may see Senegal emerge as an African winner.