The Tribune

MINDFUL of the guidance to columnists to avoid repetition at all costs, I hesitate, after covering the subject for two weeks running, to write again about the astonishing political turbulence and economic turmoil in Britain. But the battering Prime Minister Liz Truss is experiencing since assuming office last month has become so serious that it is hard to ignore it today. The situation is being termed a crisis of immense proportions which, in the words of former Leader of the Conservative Party Lord Hague, has led to her future ‘hanging by a thread’.

The troubles engulfing No 10 Downing Street were reported to have reached fever pitch last Friday - to the point of threatening the PM’s very survival - with some people saying her departure was a question of ‘when’ not ‘if’. It was a day of high drama. Even allowing for the customary media hyperbole, this has indeed developed into a major crisis.

October 14 is now being labelled ‘Frantic Friday’ following the sacking of the Chancellor of the Exchequer, Kwasi Kwarteng, after just 38 days in charge of the Treasury. He had paid the price for his disastrous mini-budget on September 23 which provided for unfunded tax cuts amounting to almost 45 billion pounds sterling but with no mention of cuts in public spending and which therefore would require substantially higher public borrowing. This alarmed the financial markets and led to a serious fall of sterling against the US dollar. It was also seen as a reckless gamble at a time of double-digit inflation and rising interest rates.

However, Kwarteng was only carrying out Truss’s instructions since she was as much an architect of this package as he was. Finding a fall guy for one’s own mistakes is said to be one of the oldest political manoeuvres. But, by dismissing him for carrying out her own manifesto, in the eyes of some she added injustice to accusations of incompetence and irresponsibility in pushing forward her reforms so quickly and without adequate preparation.

After telling Kwarteng, her long-standing friend and closest ideological and political ally, he was out of a job, Truss appointed Jeremy Hunt to replace him. This seems to have been well received generally since Hunt is said to be trusted and respected as a former cabinet minister and also as someone of sufficient calibre to have run – albeit unsuccessfully - in two Tory leadership contests. He is regarded as a political heavyweight with long experience in government and who has a good understanding of business as a result of being an entrepreneur himself.

But, even after backtracking on taxes by, for instance, changing her stance on cutting corporation tax, Truss hardly enhanced her reputation by briefly addressing a short press conference and taking only four questions from the assembled newspaper reporters. This was regarded by some as an attempt to run away from further scrutiny. She was harshly criticised for her performance which was called wooden and disrespectful and which did nothing to calm the markets. Her credibility as prime minister has been severely damaged and her ditching of Kwasi Kwarteng only ramped up calls for her to go herself.

Clearly, the Conservative Party has become increasingly divided. Many see Truss’s embarrassing U-turns as an example of desperation and panic and are calling her ‘a loser and a goner’. But much will depend on how the new Chancellor performs.

At the time of writing, he has already said ‘we went too far too fast’. In a dramatic turnaround, he has scrapped nearly all the tax cuts proposed in the growth plan three weeks ago. He has pointedly reversed Truss’s pledge that there would be ‘absolutely’ no spending cuts and is warning that all government departments will be forced to find efficiency savings while there will also be tax rises to come – and he has stressed that the most important objective now is to restore stability.

Moreover, he has acknowledged it was a mistake not to have had an economic forecast by the UK’s independent Office for Budget Responsibility in advance of the mini-budget in September. The next step will be the government’s medium-term fiscal plan to be announced on October 31 which will presumably explain how any remaining tax cuts will be funded in a sustainable manner.

In a healthy and well-functioning democracy it is essential to have a critical press holding politicians to account. But, even though possession of a sense of humour is a prized quality in Britain, in modern times there seems to be no holds barred for an iconoclastic media which enjoys making fun of - and even ridiculing – political leaders publicly. Reportedly, the UK’s Daily Star newspaper is laying bets about whether Truss will still be PM within the ten-day shelf life of a lettuce. Apparently, the bookies have cut the odds over the likelihood of what they are calling a lame-duck premier still being around by the time the Daily Star’s lettuce wilts and becomes no more!

Hilarious or just plain silly? Take your pick. But what is for sure is that the last thing most people want now is another protracted Tory leadership contest, with MPs failing to unite over a replacement. What is more, if Truss were forced out so soon, the likelihood is that there would be another general election – and, with the opposition Labour Party well ahead in the polls, the Tories would probably lose in a landslide.

It seems that for many in the UK it is almost incomprehensible that the new government has, through poor judgement, got itself in to such a mess so quickly by rushing unwisely into a new policy on the economy without doing the necessary preparatory groundwork. This policy may be desirable and workable as a means of boosting growth in the longer term. But one does not need to be a trained economist to understand that at the same time it is fundamentally flawed by a failure to say how the tax cuts will be funded.

Unless she is suddenly forced out in the meantime, whether or not the prime minister survives is likely to depend on the outcome of her new Chancellor’s presentation of the government’s new fiscal plan at the end of this month. Those who are conspiring to oust her may hold their fire until then. Who knows? But things are moving fast at the moment in British politics – and the speed of change during recent days has been described as breath-taking.

CHINA’S LEADER ON BRINK OF TOTAL POWER

THE general speculation in the lead-up to China’s Communist Party Congress which opened on Sunday has been that President Xi Jinping will be handed a third five-year term. If this happens, after the two-term limit was abolished in 2018, it would tighten his grip on China and, in the view of many China-watchers, make him the nation’s most powerful leader since Mao Zedong, the founder of the People’s Republic of China in 1949 and its leader until his death in 1976.

The National Congress of China’s Communist Party (CCP) is held every five years and reportedly lasts for about a week. 2,300 delegates gathering in the Great Hall of the People in Beijing’s Tiananmen Square will elect new people to join the Party’s Central Committee and apparently there will be elections for new members of the Politburo, the standing committee of which is said to be “the elite of the elite”.

The huge gathering in the vast Great Hall is an awesome sight. The TV coverage shows row upon row of delegates seated in orderly fashion in magnificently grand surroundings in what could be described as “robotic conformism”. But the whole set-up is none the less impressive for that and the atmosphere exudes massive power which, even on a TV screen, is somehow intimidating.

Xi Jinping already holds the top three positions in China. As General Secretary of the CCP, he is its chief and he is also head of the Politburo. He is Chairman of China’s Central Military Commission and therefore commands the country’s armed forces and police; and, as President, he is China’s head of state who represents the nation globally. Reportedly, he is also referred to as paramount or supreme leader.

If he is given another five-year term – and at the time of writing this has not yet happened -- his existing overwhelming control will clearly be even further consolidated; and it is being said he could stay in power for the rest of his life. President Xi already leads the world’s second-largest economy and one of its largest military forces. Some observers suggest that, with a third term, he would be likely to push China further towards a return to the type of totalitarian state ruled over by Chairman Mao – with even greater Party control over all aspects of life in China, not least the economy. It is said that ‘Xi Jinping thought’ is beginning to gain prominence and could become enshrined as the CCP’s guiding philosophy and that his brand of Chinese socialism contains an “assertively nationalist philosophy” which is not supportive of any kind of private business. Nonetheless, Xi is credited with building his country into a prosperous, modernised society.

Such speculation by sinologists is open to debate, but they will surely be studying Xi Jinping’s opening address at the CCP Congress. This was judged by some Western commentators to be directed mainly towards the party faithful – doubling down on existing ideology and reconfirming that China was run on Marxist principles. But the speech was short on practical solutions to deal with the country’s current problems and major challenges like a faltering economy and difficult international relations.

During the rest of this week, further news about a range of issues -- including the economy, Taiwan and international relations more broadly -- will surely be aired and will throw light on the future of this important nation. The media coverage will be comprehensive and China analysts will have a field day.

MORE HORRORS IN UKRAINE

THE extent of Russia’s continuing atrocities in Ukraine know no limits. Indiscriminate bombing of apartment blocks in Kyiv and other cities and even children’s playgrounds that has left many dead and injured – supposedly in reaction to the recent attack on the main bridge from Crimea that is a strategic supply and logistics route for Russian forces -- has reached a new low even by Putin’s standards.

Missile attacks on residential buildings against civilians constitute a horrible escalation of violence beyond conventional warfare. The evil of what is happening is beyond comprehension and, in the eyes of many, the Russian president and his immediate colleagues should be forced eventually to pay for their war crimes.

To shed light on the Ukrainian war and Putin’s further intentions, readers may find it interesting to follow the reporting of the BBC’s Moscow-based correspondent, Steve Rosenberg. As a fluent Russian speaker who has been immersed in the study of the country for many years, he is reputed to have a deep understanding of the situation and has analysed the most recent developments with admirable clarity. There is no space in today’s column to examine this further but I hope to return to the subject next week.