The Tribune

THERE is a rejoinder, allegedly made by British Prime Minister Harold Macmillan when asked what was among the greatest challenges he faced as a political leader. The alleged response: “Events, dear boy, events,” has never been fully authenticated, though it has been widely reported.

Whether or not Macmillan actually delivered the specific retort, many leaders would agree how quickly events and mistakes upend the direction and focus of a government.

Few, by example, could imagine a global pandemic, the course of a war in Ukraine, the greater and sustained economic consequences from Brexit or some other seismic event. Sometimes the events are of a leader’s own making, with unintended consequences and fallout from one’s decisions.

The implosion of British Prime Minister Liz Truss is a spectacular example of how events may unravel with dizzying speed. Many are wondering how long she will survive in office, especially given the febrile atmosphere in the Conservative Party and the Tory press.

Is her time in office numbered in days, weeks, months or can she hang on? The Conservatives are ripping themselves apart, with the different ideological and other factions at war and revolting against the party’s leadership.

It has been a momentous time in the UK, including the death of Queen Elizabeth II. Bloomberg described Truss’s first month in office as: “The most turbulent debut of any British prime minister in peacetime. In just three weeks, her administration has been battered by a crisis of confidence in her policies that have triggered a collapse in the pound and a surge in borrowing costs that threaten to push the UK toward a deep recession and a housing market crash.”

FLAWS

As noted in this column in early September, during the two-month Tory leadership race there were glowing flaws, inconsistencies and gaffes by Truss, who never won a majority of the votes by her parliamentary caucus.

“Power will reveal Truss’s character: strengths, weaknesses, latent positive and negative traits and other characterological features.” Still, it is important to give new leaders a chance to see how they might perform.

Some leaders defy expectations, performing admirably, while others perform poorly or even miserably. Few expected the disastrous course Ms Truss and her fired Chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng, would chart.

The mistakes are myriad and well-reported: a failure to consult and to game the response from the marketplace; doctrinaire policy prescriptions in a volatile and fluid economic environment; abysmal communications; eye-watering U-turns and other errors of policy, judgment and politics.

Many observers were puzzled that the Chancellor failed to consult with the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) as well as with many leaders in the banking community, who were stunned by many elements in the mini-budget, including heavy borrowing to pay for tax cuts.

The Conservative British politician Ann Widdecombe voiced the deep concern over the lack of consultation: “But none of that happened, so without explanation, without preparation, without getting people on side, she just launched into this out of a clear blue sky, that’s what’s gone wrong.

“Nobody was saying - ‘stop, Prime Minister just let’s think this through’, nobody was doing that. It was an appalling mistake but if she’d had good advisers there, though, that wouldn’t have happened. They’ve got to get some solid advice and solid advisors in Downing Street, older hands, wiser hands on the tiller.”

After becoming Chancellor of the Exchequer, Jeremy Hunt realised the need for quick action and consultation. Earlier this week, to steady the markets and the pound and to reduce the cost of government borrowing, he made a morning statement before briefing the House of Commons. He appeared to have some success.

Hunt went further than many expected, including limiting the government’s energy price guarantee for only six months, with a review after that period. Events have now so overwhelmed Ms Truss that she no longer controls the economic direction of her government.

Elizabeth Truss is no Margaret Thatcher! The former is no longer in control of her cabinet, much of government policy or the current political narrative.

On some of the key components of leadership – authority, judgment, competence, capacity to communicate effectively – the 47-year-old prime minister failed miserably at the outset.

INCOMPETENT

Her authority vanished within days. Her policy and political judgment was atrocious. She proved woefully incompetent and a poor communicator.

Given the turmoil in Truss’s government it is best to check the latest implosion in her cabinet. As this column was being written, news reports appeared on the resignation of Home Secretary Suella Braverman, who apparently resigned for the minor offence of sending an official document from her private email.

There seems to be more to the story. In her resignation letter Ms Braverman, on the right of the party, issued a blistering parting shot at Truss: “Not only have we broken key pledges that were promised to our voters, but I have had serious concerns about this Government’s commitment to honouring manifesto commitments.

“Pretending we haven’t made mistakes, carrying on as if everyone can’t see we have made them and hoping that things will magically come right is not serious politics.”

The BBC has reported that the Conservative Party’s Chief Whip and Deputy Whip have also resigned, though the network has not confirmed the resignations as yet.

Ms Truss has had to replace allies as Chancellor of the Exchequer and Home Secretary, two of the great offices of state, with Jeremy Hunt and Grant Shapps, two men who backed her leadership rival Rishi Sunak.

Two days ago, Mr Shapps stated that he did not believe that the prime minister could survive. As reported in the Mirror, he jibed: “She needs to thread the eye of a needle with the lights off, it’s that difficult.”

There is an extraordinary difference between being a minister and prime minister. The latter is a lonely existence. The very same people who laud you one day, may turn on you within hours.

Many in the Tory press and in the party were giddy that Ms Truss was a “true blue Conservative”, pursuing conservative economic policies.

When her mini-budget spooked the City, and even got a rebuke from the International Monetary Fund, it was remarkable to watch the speed with which many rightwing British tabloids turned on her and the then Chancellor.

TOO LATE

It appears too late for Ms Truss to restore confidence. With a dire lack of stability and predictability and her government in shambles, Ms Truss may have little choice but to go. She will go down in history as the shortest serving prime minister in Britain.

Though this is mostly of her own making, it is difficult to watch such a dramatic political meltdown. One may wish her to go while also having compassion for what she is enduring. Political life is often so brutal.

President John F Kennedy liked to say: “Good judgment is usually the result of experience. And experience is frequently the result of bad judgment.” Some leaders acquire good judgment because of hard experience. They go on to survive.

But for some, their terrible judgment is not survivable. Having lost the confidence of the country, much of the press and, critically, her caucus, Ms Truss should resign. She has been outstripped by events which she can no longer control nor direct.