The Tribune

• Bahamas ‘very close’ to 2019 levels by year-end

• Hotelier: ‘I think we’re back’; occupancy up on ‘21

• But pent-up demand ‘not as robust’ as previously

By NEIL HARTNELL

Tribune Business Editor

nhartnell@tribunemedia.net

Bahamian tourism was yesterday said to be enjoying “the perfect storm” via a record booking pace that will see it exceed pre-COVID business levels by 2023 at latest, with one hotelier saying: “I think we’re back.”

Robert Sands, the Bahamas Hotel and Tourism Association’s (BHTA) president, told Tribune Business that the industry will “be coming very close” to the this year to matching 2019 levels when the country received a record 7.2m visitors despite being hit by Hurricane Dorian.

With advance bookings running at a pace ahead of 2021, he voiced confidence that The Bahamas has sufficient momentum to withstand the potential threats from a US recession, global inflation and continued supply chain shocks that will likely increase costs as well as impact the country’s main visitor source market.

Mr Sands conceded to this newspaper that post-COVID pent-up demand is “not as robust” as more competing destinations come online and ease pandemic-related restrictions, but added that many resort properties are matching “with some surpassing pre-COVID levels as we move towards the high-season at the end of 2022” with its traditional start - the Thanksgiving holiday - now just over four weeks away.

“I think we’re going to be fairly close to pre-COVID levels,” he predicted of the Bahamian tourism industry’s Christmas/New Year performance. “If I was a betting person, there’s no question we will certainly be past them for the year 2023. We’ll be coming very close in the 2022 full year versus 2019.”

The Bahamian resort and tourism industry will gain better insight into its Christmas and New Year prospects when it meets today. Asked whether the sector had been taken aback by the strength of its post-COVID rebound, Mr Sands replied: “I don’t think the word is surprised. I think we all recognise pent-up demand has translated into increased bookings.

“I think there’s no question, though, that it’s not as robust as it has been but there’s still some pent-up demand that’s there. As a number of rival destinations continue to improve, that demand will be spread. There’s now a number of other options available to tourists. We still think The Bahamas is very well-positioned, principally because of our proximity to the most important market, the US.”

Observers have previously suggested that the strength, and duration, of pent-up post-COVID travel demand will be key to offsetting the impact from any US recession, inflation and next year’s spike in Bahamian energy costs and sustaining the tourism industry’s momentum - and that of the wider economy - beyond just regaining the output lost to the pandemic.

“There’s no question that the advance booking pace is ahead of previous years at this point in time,” Mr Sands told Tribune Business, pointing to the fact that resorts such as Baha Mar and The Pointe in downtown Nassau were enjoying either their first, or one of their first, years in operation due to the pandemic. Sandals, too, has invested heavily in upgrading its Bahamian properties.

“There’s some dynamics in play,” he added. “There’s some new products on the market. The cruise lines have come from a stop position to a greatly improved position. All of these contribute to where we are today. Companies are rebounding, and this makes for the perfect storm of a significantly improved tourism industry.”

The removal of the last remaining COVID restrictions, such as 72-hour testing for unvaccinated travellers and the mask mandate, has also paved the way for the return of group bookings - the market segment that is likely to be among the last to revive from the pandemic.

“I think we’re seeing a much improved position because a number of groups scheduled for the COVID period have rebooked to the post-COVID period. I think we’re on a constant positive upward trajectory,” Mr Sands added. “I think we must always be conscious of headwinds, but tourism is a very resilient sector and industry.

“I think we have to be concerned about oil prices that impact the cost of airlift. I think we have to be concerned about supply chain issues, which are easing, but the lead time for a number of items has been extended and have increased prices in the food and beverage area.”

The BHTA chief said the industry would better understand the Christmas/New Year outlook for Family Island properties after today’s meeting, but one hotelier said his occupancies were averaging in the high 70 percent range for the two months leading up to Christmas.

Benjamin Simmons, proprietor of The Other Side and Ocean View properties in Harbour Island and north Eleuthera, told Tribune Business that for the remainder of October his resorts were at 62 percent occupancy - a level that is “about 10 percent up on this time last year”.

For November, they are are averaging about 60 percent occupancy, some four percentage points ahead of the prior year’s 56 percent, before hitting 91 percent for December with time left still to close those gaps. The momentum is also continuing through to January where occupancy averages for that month are already at 80 percent.

“I think we’re back,” Mr Simmons said, adding that his property’s numbers were “not unique” and others on Harbour Island are likely seeing similar. “We had a roaring last year, and it just seems like we are fully back. It’s not overwhelming. It’s back to the normal level of business. It really feels like we’re seeing healthy numbers.

“The inquiries are still coming in. Weddings are still heavily booked. We’re getting a huge number of wedding requests. There’s probably going to be catch up, catch up because of COVID-19 in that department. That definitely seems to be the case. Hopefully we’ll still sell some rooms in between and narrow the gaps. There’s plenty of time to fill the gap in January.

“There were some nerves over whether revenge tourism was happening or if it was the typical rebooking of The Bahamas. Last year was impressive and it looks like we’re doing equally as good this year. Harbour Island continues to go from strength to strength. It’s a destination that has really blossomed in the last year-and-a-half to two years. Once we got out of COVID everybody jumped on the train and we’re coming back. I think everybody’s seeing pretty strong occupancies.”