The Tribune

By LYNAIRE MUNNINGS

Tribune Staff Reporter

lmunnings@tribunemedia.net

FORMER deputy director of the Department of Meteorology Basil Dean is predicting a “slightly above average” 2023 hurricane season, with as many as six hurricanes forming, of which two are projected to be major storms.

Recently, Colorado State University released its 2023 Atlantic region hurricane season forecast, predicting 13 named storms, six hurricanes, and two major hurricanes ranging as category three or higher.

However, these forecasts are said to be “slightly below” the typical season average of 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.

In an interview with The Tribune, Mr Dean said this season’s predicted formation is based on two environmental factors, which leaves room for uncertainties.

“Looking at the factors that dictate the frequency of development would be the ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation), which is currently in a neutral phase, and that is moving from what we call the La Nina,” he said.

“The La Nina tends to favour more tropical storm development, so we are moving away from that phase and expect to transition into what we call the El Nino phase by late summer or certainly by fall. The question, however, is how quickly is it going to get to that point. Now we do not know that, so that leaves some uncertainties as to what kind of season we’re really going to have.

“Another factor that we also look at is the sea surface temperatures in the Eastern and Central Atlantic Ocean. The Sea Surface temperatures are above normal, so even if for example, it does not transition to the El Nino phase which favours less activity, we still can have a fairly active hurricane season because of the warm sea surface temperatures, which is also another ingredient hurricanes need for development.

“So, at the end of the day, it really all boils down to the El Nino, how quickly it reaches that point, so that remains some uncertainties because we really don’t know. But personally, I would tend to lean more towards an average season perhaps just slightly above average.”

CNN reported that traditionally the El Nino inhibits hurricane activity, whereas La Niña or ENSO neutral conditions create a more favourable environment for tropical storm development.

The Climate Prediction Centre issued an El Nino Watch on Thursday which indicates a 62 percent chance of El Nino developing during the months of May and July.

Mr Dean urged residents to take advantage of this dry season to prepare in anticipation of any possible dangerous and destructive storms that could affect the county.

The 2023 hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30.