The Tribune

International alarm bells have been ringing, but the press headline on Sunday revealed all – “Special forces airlift US diplomats from Sudan”. President Biden had just announced that the US military had evacuated by helicopter diplomats and their families from the Sudanese capital Khartoum. Britain has also evacuated its diplomats amongst reports of similar action by other Western countries.

Such action shows the seriousness of the local situation as heavy fighting rages in the densely populated city of some six million people. With the threat of escalating violence, this is a power struggle between the regular army and a paramilitary group called the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), formed some ten years ago. Since the conflict broke out on 15 April, more than 400 people have been killed and countless numbers wounded. But, serious as the situation is in itself, it is also hugely significant more widely in the world because Sudan is in an unstable geopolitically vital region in what has become a fragile part of the African continent.

Khartoum is said to be unaccustomed to war. There has been heavy gunfire together with strikes by fighter jets within the city itself. Urban areas have been shaken by explosions and hospitals overwhelmed. The result is a frightened population largely confined to their homes and suffering from shortages of food, water and fuel together with widespread power cuts.

Sudan, with a population of 46 million, is the third largest country by area in Africa. It is also one of the poorest. It occupies a strategic position in north-east Africa alongside the Red Sea and straddles the Nile River. It borders Egypt to its north, Libya and Chad to the west, Ethiopia and Eritrea to the south as well as the relatively new nation of South Sudan which formally broke away from its northern neighbour in 2011 after a long and bloody civil war, taking with it the region’s oil fields. Now, in Sudan itself the rival military groups are struggling for control of shrinking economic resources including gold and the agricultural potential of the rich soil around the Nile for which they are seeking investors.

The country’s long-term dictator President Omar al-Bashir was ousted in 2019 after decades of internal conflict and economic isolation. A joint military and civilian government that had been established was overthrown in a coup in 2021 when the present leader, General Abdel al-Burhan, took over. Since then, the country has been run by a council of generals led by him as head of the armed forces and, in effect, the country’s president and by his deputy and leader of the RSF, General Mohamed Dagalo.

Rivalry between these two men is at the centre of the dispute which has led to the current outbreak of fighting that has intensified in the last few days. They have disagreed about the direction the country should take and the proposed move towards civilian rule, particularly over the pace of transition and the question of civilian control over the military. A framework deal to put power back in to the hands of civilians was apparently agreed last December but talks to finalise details failed. General Dagalo has now said the 2021 coup was a mistake and has presented the RSF and himself as a leader and statesman on the side of the people against the so-called elites of Khartoum. However, many disbelieve this because of the RSF’s involvement in the notorious Janjaweed militia accused of ethnic cleansing when brutally attacking rebels in Darfur. Meanwhile, General al-Burhan has declared that the army should only hand over power to an elected government.

According to reports, one of the main sticking points between the two military leaders is about plans to incorporate the 100,000-strong RSF within the regular army and disagreement about who would lead a new combined force. Fighting started after members of the RSF were redeployed around the country which the army saw as a threat. There is also the fundamental fear that continued fighting could destabilize and fragment the country.

As the rest of the world looks on, the security situation in the region remains complicated. There is a danger of the trouble in Sudan’s western Darfur region spilling over in to neighbouring Chad and the Central African Republic. There is instability on Sudan’s border with the Tigray region of northern Ethiopia which has recently emerged from a gruelling conflict – as well as with Eritrea, which is a one-party dictatorship. Moreover, the stark coastline of eastern Sudan looks out on to the Red Sea where Russia wants to establish a naval base giving its warships access to one of the world’s busiest and most congested sea lanes.

Then there is Egypt, Sudan’s powerful neighbour to the north. Its leaders must be watching developments with some trepidation. There are said to be an estimated 5 million Sudanese fleeing poverty or fighting who are living in Egypt. The latter’s government is reputed to be close to Sudan’s army and does not want to see an alternative political order in Khartoum that might be hostile to Cairo. This is mainly because Sudan has for long been an important ally in Egypt’s long-running dispute with Ethiopia over that country’s giant hydroelectric project on the Blue Nile and the threat of controlling the flow of the river that is vital to the lives of more than 100 million Egyptians.

Thus, various different countries have a close interest in events on the ground and will try to influence them if they can. So there is a danger of large-scale external intervention while the UN and Western countries have called for an end to the fighting and a return to dialogue.

Sudan is one of Africa’s faltering giants seeking to fulfill its potential. Other countries will be worried that the present crisis could evolve from a relatively straightforward power struggle into a wider and complex civil war. But, judging from the massive street protests calling for the ending in 2019 of the almost three decades of rule by President Omar al-Bashir who had stayed too long, the public will not remain silent for long if the military – whichever side comes out on top in the current crisis -- do not restore civilian rule. That said, it seems that for the moment the Sudanese themselves want peace and stability more than they crave democracy.

FORMER DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER RESIGNS AMID BULLYING SCANDAL

After months of rumour and speculation, the row over allegations by civil servants of bullying behaviour by a senior cabinet minister in the UK Conservative government has ended with his resignation. Such a saga within the Westminster system of government is of significant interest and is, I think, worth examining here.

The now former Deputy Prime Minister and Justice Secretary, Dominic Raab, who had also been Brexit Secretary and Foreign Secretary, has been dogged by controversy for some time over his treatment of staff. This included a number of formal complaints about his alleged bullying and even that his body language was intimidating. These were considered sufficiently serious for a formal inquiry to be conducted by a senior barrister. Leaks from Raab’s own officials suggested an investigation would depict him as a monstrous bully who terrorised civil service staff with impossible demands and excessively harsh criticism of their performance.

However, this turned out to be over the top since the report of the investigation, which was published last week, cleared Raab of all but two of the complaints against him. It found that, while he did not shout, swear or physically threaten staff, they were upset by his abrupt behaviour, including asking too many questions, interrupting them in meetings and questioning the quality of their work. In summary, the report concluded overall that his conduct had been “abrasive” but not “abusive”.

Of the two bullying allegations upheld, Raab said in his resignation letter that he found these adverse findings to be “flawed”, notably one that related to the removal of a senior diplomat who, he claimed, had tried to scupper the post-Brexit deal over Gibraltar. He considered these findings set a dangerous precedent because the fallout of his resignation might be that ministers would struggle to take any action against lazy or incompetent staff for fear of being labelled bullies. In his view, the civil service had become increasingly politicised and Left-wing inclined and such allegations had become a ‘nuclear’ weapon that could be used in future against any minister whose agenda and zeal for reform they happened not to like.

Raab blasted “the tyranny of subjective hurt feelings” and warned of senior mandarins trying to prevent ministers from delivering change. He believed he was guilty of nothing more than being a tough boss with high standards who was trying to get things done. He added there was also a danger of setting the bar for definition of bullying so low that it would prevent admonishment for substandard work. In his experience, civil servants did not like admitting they were wrong and they were rarely held accountable for shoddy and inadequate work or for flawed advice to ministers. Some officials who worked for him at the Ministry of Justice had been unable to keep up with the ‘pace, standards and challenges’ that he demanded. He also thought there were instances of civil servants actively trying to thwart government policies, for example in relation to Brexit. He concluded that ‘bosses have to boss’ and that nowadays people are reluctant to accept discipline.

All that is, of course, Raab’s side of the story. Without knowing the detailed evidence, it is probably unwise for others to comment, though he is said by some to be gruff, terse, thin-skinned and not very people-friendly. But, generally in any organisation, being ticked off by your boss should not necessarily be called bullying, depending, of course, on the manner in which it is done. It is the job of ministers to take action and secure results for those who elected them. The public surely accept that ruffling a few feathers of civil servants – if that becomes necessary along the way - is not something to be automatically condemned. However, others will say that in modern times, with people’s greater sense of entitlement and obsession over their alleged hurt feelings, different standards should be applied.

Maybe the report of the inquiry should have the last word. It said, inter alia, that Raab’s style of working as a minister was “inquisitorial, direct, impatient and fastidious” – and many people contend that that is exactly what they want from the politicians they elect.

There could be helpful lessons from this for other countries with the Westminster form of government. So, after experience of working indirectly for ministers as a British career diplomat, perhaps I could return next week with thoughts about their role and that of officials.

FITTING TRIBUTE TO LATE QUEEN

To commemorate The Queen’s birthday on April 21, the Royal Family have paid tribute to the nation’s beloved monarch who died peacefully at the age of 96 in September last year after celebrating her Platinum Jubilee. An image was released showing her with one of her traditional beaming smiles to the camera during a visit to Edinburgh last June. Alongside the image a caption began with the words “Today we remember the incredible life and legacy of Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II, on what would have been her 97th birthday”.

As part of this tribute, Kensington Palace also released over the weekend a new and previously unseen photograph of The Queen surrounded by some of her grandchildren and great-grandchildren. The image was the work of the Princess of Wales, a keen amateur photographer, and was taken in August at Balmoral Castle where The Queen stayed during that month and September each year – and Balmoral became known as her “happy place”.

The photograph, which mirrors one taken two years ago of the monarch and the late Duke of Edinburgh surrounded by great-grandchildren at Balmoral, has been described in the UK press as “one of the ultimate granny shots” of the late Queen. In itself, it is a rare and touching portrait, but it is surely a particularly poignant image taken, as it was, shortly before the nation bid a final farewell to a much loved monarch.